Buy INTEL - Gzibordi
By: GZ on Martedì 07 Agosto 2001 22:33
ho detto ieri al mio tecnico che era qua per sistema computers e rete che i pentium di Intel da fine agosto probabilmente costeranno la metà pensando di impressionarlo con la notizia
non si è squassato e ha detto: " ogni 3 o 4 anni lo fanno sempre per spingerli nei pc meno cari ..." e ho pensato se hanno ragione gli analisti di eccitarsi tanto
poi è arrivato il pezzo di Tom Kurlak
(ex top analista di semiconduttori per anni e anni, ora in proprio, l'uomo che determinava le svolte dei titoli del settore quando era a Merril...)
e vedo che concorda con il mio tecnico
A 50% price cut is a good guess, but it shouldn't be a surprise and it isn't new news. The new price points, along with the new 845 chip set for low-cost DRAM, will drive the Pentium IV into $800 PCs. But on cue, leading analysts are slashing earnings estimates and their outlook for the stock.
What does Intel see that the analysts don't? For starters, Intel also told us on that second-quarter call that processor unit sales rose 6% sequentially. That's more than a 24% annual growth rate, if it continues. This important statistic reveals that chip inventories have been used up and that PC sales aren't dead but are instead picking up. Intel also continues to project more sequential growth in the third and fourth quarters.
A price cut now will accelerate this fledgling recovery as dealers see new Pentium IV technology available at mass-market prices in time for the fall-winter sales season. By early 2002, the PC market may be the tech surprise of the year.
My advice? Don't get too caught up in handicapping Intel's product and pricing decisions. The company knows a thing or two about how to sell microprocessors and how to grow its business. And don't worry so much about margins because, by the end of next year, I would guess that well over 50% of Intel's Pentium IVs will be smaller, 0.13 micron line width versions, which cost a lot less to make.
A Closer Look at Valuation
Having said that, I want to address the subject of valuation, which is getting a lot of play right now and looks wrong to me. I keep hearing that after a 75% drop in share price, Intel is now too expensive to buy. Why? Because, based on new Street forecasts (where were they last year?), Intel's price-to-earnings ratio is now too high. If you read many analysts' reports, you might think Intel has nowhere to go but down.
Are the Chips Really Down?
Intel's not as expensive as some analysts would have you believe.
Let's be realistic. There is no way this stock, which was $75 and is now $30, is too expensive because it already discounts the next cycle. Who correctly saw down-earnings in 2001 back in 2000? The estimates for 2002 and beyond are just too low. It's hard to forecast change -- especially big change. But look at the history of the semiconductor industry: Big change is the norm.
Some chip companies will double their earnings next year and add 50% more in 2003. Intel could do that with some good fortune, getting per-share earnings to $1.80 or so in 2003 which, if discounted in 2002 at 25 times, produces a 50% return in the stock over 12 to 18 months. And that won't be peak earnings. My estimate of peak earnings for the next cycle is two times normalized earnings, or $2.70, by 2005. Using a cycle-top P/E of 20 yields a 98% upside from today's $30 price.
I want to be there for that.
Edited by - gzibordi on 8/7/2001 20:37:53