Re: God bless America ¶
By: XTOL on Domenica 28 Giugno 2020 10:29
altra dimostrazione che la matematica fa strage dei pregiudizi dei somari (alla hobi)
Study: Dems COVID19 Lockdown Measures Causing Most Deaths
Conclusion
The hypothesis that “population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure” should lead to significantly better outcomes in terms of mortality from COVID-19 cannot be supported given the empirical data that is available.
On the contrary, the empirical data very strongly suggests that mortality outcomes are improved with fewer interventions.
The argument that, relying only on the hypothetical model itself, it is still possible to claim that the counter-measures were responsible for what might have been an even larger number of deaths is difficult to accept where the empirical data shows such a strong contrarian correlation.
Moreover, it is even more difficult to reconcile the fact that all of the states that effectively deployed no significant measures at all have resulted in virtually no excess deaths. There is low feasibility that this could be due to confounding or particular attributes of those states since they all share their borders with states with otherwise very different outcomes.
It is evident that Democrat states have a much stronger tendency towards intervention and this has led to much poorer outcomes for citizens of those states. Given the significantly heterogeneous nature of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of risk demography, it would not be a surprise to see homogeneous interventions having no impact on outcomes. However, it is difficult to explain why outcomes should be materially worse.
A possible reason could be in the nature of collectivism versus individualism, where Republicans might be more likely to take appropriate responsibility for their own welfare, making decisions and taking actions according to their own perceived risks, whereas members of the collectivist states may be more inclined to rely on the diktats of the state even though they may not be logical or reasonable. This conjecture would need much deeper investigation to be upheld.