Brazile e Real - gz
By: GZ on Lunedì 29 Gennaio 2007 01:08
..uno dei migliori gestori di fondi sui mercati Emergenti ^qualche giorno fa sul Brasile#http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1634421238488.html^ nota che è un paese in cui i fondi pensione hanno zero azioni
la mia sensazione è che se il real comincia a scendere la borsa brasiliana può fare molto, finora sono entrati capitali che cercavano soprattutto il differenziale di interesse che era mostruoso e il carry trade, ma una volta che il trend inverte questi escono, il Real aveva fatto cedere il Dollaro US da 3.80 a 2.20 comincia a perdere e le azioni ne guadagnano
............Any other favorites?
Korea and Brazil. Brazil has been a good performer for us, whereas we've had a big bet on Taiwan for the last year and that has hurt us. Brazil is a simple story: Two years ago nominal rates used to be 25% and real rates were 10%. It had a trade surplus but they had $10 billion in reserves coming out of the crisis. Today, rates have fallen from 25 to 13½, but real rates are still 9% because inflation has fallen to 3 or 3½%.
On top of that, the trade surplus is much larger. The reserves have gone from $10 billion to $80 billion in three years, and the currency has appreciated significantly from 3.8 to the dollar to 2.18 now. One of the problems they have is also the opportunity: Real interest rates are too high and choking off growth and they will have to come down, and as they do there is going to be a massive expansion in all kinds of areas. People will be able to afford cars and build houses when real rates come down.
What are you investing in?
Everything across the board in Brazil. I don't want to be specific about names because we think it is a general story. There is one other telling statistic: Domestic pension funds have almost no equities. As those rates come down, domestic savers, including the pension funds, are going to put more and more of their money into equities. The market is trading at only eight or nine times earnings. But the caveat is that a big part of the Brazilian index is Petrobras [ticker: PZE], the national oil company, and a number of iron-ore producers like CVRD [RIO].
They are doing well because commodity prices are high. If there is a global slowdown or a slowdown in China and oil prices fall and steel prices fall and iron-ore prices fall, that will have a negative impact.