By: Paolo Gavelli on Lunedì 13 Gennaio 2003 16:11
Da Schaeffer's riproduco una notazione che mi sembra interessante (in breve: il movimento da ottobre ha caratteristiche da rimbalzo in mercato orso):
OEX factoid: In bull markets, small gains tend to be much more frequent than small losses, yet large losses are often more common than large gains. For example, from 1995 to 1999, the OEX saw 669 small gains (daily gains of less than two percent) to 520 small losses (daily losses of less than two percent). Yet daily gains of more than two percent only slightly outnumbered large daily losses, 38 to 36. Basically, gains in a bull market came slowly and steadily while sell-offs were sharp but short-lived. This behavior is reversed in bear markets. Interestingly enough, during the 58-day trading range from October 17 to January 10, the OEX posted 20 "small" daily gains and 26 "small" daily losses. However, there were only four days that saw the OEX lose more than two percent against eight days that saw the OEX gain more than two percent. Even during the trading range of the last three months, the OEX has shown a heightened tendency toward frequent small ! daily losses yet occasional large daily gains - clear bear market behavior.