By: rael on Lunedì 17 Febbraio 2003 14:29
Non riesco a trovare un grafico decente di Shenzhen, ma non mi pare che sia andato da nessuna parte negli ultimi 2 anni, sicuramente non al rialzo.
Shanghai, non mi pare messo per niente meglio.
Quindi quel fondo di cui Zibordi mette il grafico è obiettivamente ben gestito, e ha fatto una selezione eccezionale.
Sulla Cina se ne sentono di tutti i colori; il fatto che il paese sia al 20% del suo potenziale non vuol dire che sia un'occasione, soprattutto in una situazione di congiuntura mondiale come quella di oggi.
Sulle statistiche governative, tra l'altro, ci sono inesattezze che nemmeno il governo americano... ma questo si può capire, vista l'estensione del paese e la poca omogeneità dei dati.
Stratfor, che quanto ad analisi economiche comunque non brilla a mio parere, qualche mese fa parlava di quanto abbia beneficiato il paese del flusso di investimenti stranieri degli ultimi anni, frutto anche del fatto che alternative nel mondo, in questo momento, non ce ne sono molte.
Secondo l'ente statistico cinese lo scorso anno gli investimenti esteri hanno contribuito al pil per QUASI IL 40%.
Un arresto in questo flusso di investimenti sarebbe molto rischioso per il paese.
China: Investment Boom Poses Risks to Economy
Jul 17, 2002
China expects a record $50 billion in foreign investment for 2002 according to the latest numbers from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. In the year following the country's entry into the World Trade Organization, such a boom is to be expected. But the influx of foreign money will not continue to rise unabated, and Beijing must avoid becoming too dependent on foreign investments for domestic spending.
Foreign investment into China is expected to top $50 billion in 2002 according to the Ministry of Trade and Economic Cooperation. In the first six months of the year, China attracted $24.6 billion in foreign investment, up 18.7 percent from the same period a year earlier.
With its entry into the World Trade Organization opening new sectors of the economy to foreign involvement, it is little wonder China has seen the rise in investment. Add the weak investment climate in the United States and the unattractiveness of many Asian and Latin American economies, and China -- with its 1.3 billion-person market -- remains the Holy Grail of international business and investment. But if Beijing becomes too dependent upon rising investment rates, it could be setting the nation up for a fall.
Beijing has sped infrastructure development in recent years, digging deep into government coffers in hopes of driving economic growth. Government infrastructure spending rose 24.4 percent in the first half of 2002 -- the biggest hike in eight years, according to Bloomberg. Government investment, meanwhile, has climbed 25.5 percent over the same time frame, according to Agence France-Presse. And while Beijing has sought foreign capital for its major infrastructure projects, including the gas pipeline from Xinjiang to Shanghai and a railway to Tibet, the government's pump priming has led to a $37 billion budget deficit.
In the short term, focusing on infrastructure and using foreign funds to build up China's transportation and energy transmission backbone is not bad policy. Neighboring South Korea followed a similar strategy, though it relied primarily on loans, which gave the government slightly greater control over the distribution of the money. Seoul then broke from this pattern and, after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, proved it was willing to accept painful economic reforms, allowing the country to stabilize more effectively than many other Asian nations.
But China is much larger than South Korea, and the economic reforms it already has implemented are stirring up a whole new set of problems: namely, what to do with the swelling number of urban unemployed, laid-off state workers and surplus rural laborers? For Beijing, growing unemployment only now is beginning to sink in as the major problem for the economy, but the government at all levels continues to focus on growth rates as the symbol of modernization and economic might.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported July 15 that China's GDP growth this year is expected to outstrip the 7.3 percent registered in 2001. While Chinese economists have warned that the nation must maintain GDP growth of 7 percent to 8 percent in order to keep unemployment in check, foreign economists have criticized Beijing's figures, suggesting the growth rate is more realistically in the 1 percent to 2 percent range.
According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, foreign investment makes up around 3 percent of the 7.8 percent GDP growth posted in the first half of the year.
But with Beijing continuing to rely on foreign capital to fuel its growth numbers, China risks falling into a similar trap as Argentina. Foreign investment flooded Argentina after Buenos Aires linked its economy closely to that of the United States and carried out an initial series of reforms. But as investor perceptions changed and the country failed to follow through with reforms, the flow of capital dried up, leaving the central government borrowing heavily to pay for all of the services and programs to which Argentines had become accustomed. The risk is even greater for China, where a much bigger chunk of the economy is based on foreign investments and exports.
For China, using deficit spending and infrastructure development as driving forces of the economy are good and necessary -- in the short term. The danger comes if Beijing grows to believe that the stream of foreign money is inexhaustible and if these funds become more and more integrated into the basic expectations of economic planners and government officials. If that happens, when the international investment climate shifts -- as it did in Latin America and East Asia in the 1990s -- Beijing could be in for a big shock.