Se l'epidemia di SARS viene fermata .... - gz
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By: GZ on Lunedì 07 Aprile 2003 21:27
qualìè il settore più colpito in assoluto dal
a) terrorismo-guerra in iraq e i suoi effetti sul trasporto,
b) più il rialzo del prezzo del petrolio
c) più l'epidemia di SARS in Asia ?
LE LINEE AREE ASIATICHE che sono state massacrate su tutti e tre questi fronti
Se tutta la paura della guerra e del terrorismo che avrebbe dovuto essere alimentato da quest'ultima si rivela eccessiva, il petrolio scende a 22-24 dollari e l'epidemia di SARS viene fermata
questi sì che sono titoli con un potenziale
------------------------------ Author: Christopher Wood ----------------------------
Don't be afraid of Sars
Greed: By Christopher Wood
The scourge of severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) has been making more headlines over the past week, regionally and globally. Hong Kong's propensity for panic, the natural consequence of its splendid tradition of rampant individualism is being put to the test, while representatives of Asian stock broking firms are apparently increasingly unwelcome on US roadshows. The mask-wearing panic is as understandable as the empty planes are welcome from the passenger perspective.
GREED & fear remains of the view that the evidence suggests the virus is passed primarily by physical contact. The vast majority of those infected in Hong Kong are healthcare workers or the residents of one particular residential block in Amoy Gardens in Kowloon, where there appears to be a sewerage problem. Out of the 734 infected persons in Hong Kong, as of 3 April, 242 live in Amoy Gardens and another 177 are healthcare workers and medical students. Moreover, about two-thirds of the new cases admitted in the past week, excluding healthcare workers, were from Amoy Gardens. If the virus was easily transmittable by air it would surely have spread like wildfire in Hong Kong given the incredibly crowded conditions in which people live, work and travel. Indeed GREED & fear cannot imagine a worse possible place for an epidemic than Hong Kong, with the possible exception of Manhattan.
The biggest risk for Hong Kong is the continuing spread of the virus from southern China, since at the end of the day Hong Kong cannot really control this without the mainland's cooperation. This returns attention to the subject of the original cause of the whole problem, namely China's failure to react more proactively to the spreading illness and, worse, the resulting cover-up. On that point there is now clear evidence that the ruling cadres have finally woken up to the reality that Sars has been a public-relations disaster for the mainland. It was reported yesterday from Shanghai that China has at last decided to cooperate with the World Health Organisation by allowing a WHO team into Guangdong. This must be bullish for the more effective containment of the spreading virus, as well as a greater understanding of the virus itself. Meanwhile, GREED & fear has heard an interesting theory about the tendency for southern China to have been the epicentre for most pandemic influenza viruses in recent history. So called "aquatic birds", such as ducks, are apparently the initial hosts of the flu virus but they cannot transmit the illness directly to humans. Pigs, however, can pick up the flu from birds and then serve as a "genetic mixing bowl" for the virus, producing a form of the bug that is communicable to humans. China is the world's largest hog producer but it is a homespun business with an estimated 80% raised by farmers who have no more than four pigs each.
Sars is therefore a reminder that there is another reality of "modern" China aside from the neon and glitz of Shanghai. There is also another point. The traditional defensive response of the PRC is simply incompatible with the party's ambition to promote China's growing role in the global economy, as reflected in its WTO membership. It will be interesting to see how these tensions are reconciled in coming years, though GREED & fear's believes the reactionary forces in Beijing will continue to be increasingly on the defensive.
Meanwhile, those who believe the above on Sars should buy the obvious high-beta stocks in Asia, which have been hardest hit by the virus in terms of its undoubted severe impact on tourism and the like. And for Asian airlines there would be a double whammy if good news on Iraq brings the price of oil down sharply. But Asian stocks in general, being low beta, will continue to underperform in Wall Street's present bear-market rally.