Se l'epidemia di SARS viene fermata ....

 

  By: GZ on Venerdì 14 Ottobre 2005 15:53

beh... stanno già salendo quelli che possono essere coinvolti in un vaccino, vedi Gilead ad esempio e altri più piccoli. ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ---------- --- AWSJ(10/13) Heard In Asia: Flu Scare Boosts Smaller Drug Cos (From THE ASIAN WALL STREET JOURNAL) By Nicholas Zamiska AS SCIENTISTS GRAPPLE with the most serious aspects of a possible bird-flu pandemic, investors are trying to ferret out pockets of potential in the shares of medical and health companies. If avian influenza broke out widely among humans today -- that is, if the virus's H5N1 strain mutated to become readily transmissible among people -- there could be immense demand for the products of two global pharmaceutical heavyweights, Roche Holding and Sanofi Aventis. Roche, based and traded in Switzerland, makes Tamiflu, the main antiviral drug that governments have begun stockpiling, and a unit of Sanofi is working on a bird-flu vaccine. Roche shares have climbed 15% to 187.50 Swiss francs (US$145.23) in the past three months and are flirting with their 52-week high. But some investors, including hedge-fund managers, have turned to smaller, less-well-known companies, whose shares they believe will move more sharply on bird-flu demands. "They want to find some beneficiaries of bird flu," says Taekyu Kim, an analyst in Seoul with Macquarie Bank. "It's a very short-term trading idea." One such company is the Australian pharmaceuticals company Biota Holdings, whose stock nearly doubled on bird-flu fears in the space of a few recent trading sessions, as investors bet that demand would increase for its antiviral drug Relenza. Over the past three months, the company's shares have more than quadrupled, to A$2.05 (US$1.54) apiece. While Tamiflu is far better known than Relenza, governments eager to stockpile something may turn to lesser-known antivirals if they fear Roche won't be able to keep up with the surging demand for its drug. The play has its skeptics. "The market has run very hard on Biota and you could argue that it has run too hard," says Alison Coutts, a director at Emerging Growth Capital, a brokerage firm in Sydney. Another larger company is Chiron of Emeryville, California. It is betting it has an edge on rival Sanofi in making a bird-flu vaccine, even though Sanofi's clinical trials are ahead of Chiron's. Chiron is hoping to get approval to market what it says is a unique vaccine supplement in the U.S. that would allow for inoculations with a smaller amount of vaccine -- a key concern of health officials worried about supply. "We believe we have something that nobody else has got," says Rino Rappuoli, Chiron's chief scientific officer. Of the business aspect of bird flu, he adds: "For the moment we are talking about a pandemic which is a global health problem, but not a business yet." Shares of Chiron were down 17 cents to US$42.93 at early afternoon yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Although the shares have been pressured by contamination concerns at two of Chiron's vaccine plants in Europe, a possible acquisition of Chiron by Swiss drug giant Novartis has recently propped them up, says Noushin Irani, a manager at the Frankfurt biotech fund DWS Investment. In fact, she argues the shares have little or no upside at their current price. DWS, which recently lightened its holding of Chiron, maintains a significant stake in Gilead Sciences, of Foster City, California, which developed Tamiflu in partnership with Roche and is another company that could benefit from a treatment for bird flu. Some investors are betting on the offbeat, such as Pulmuone, South Korea's leading maker of health-food products. Among its offerings is the national dish kimchi, a spicy melange many Koreans believe can ward off infection. When severe acute respiratory syndrome broke out in 2003, Pulmuone's kimchi sales rose 46% from the previous year, according to Macquarie. Pulmuone's shares surged 10% earlier this week after news reports over the weekend stirred further concern over bird flu. The shares have since slipped back to 32,550 won (US$31.25). ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------- ------------ ----

 

  By: cisha on Venerdì 14 Ottobre 2005 12:38

A proposito di virus dei polli = mercato toro e la ripresa che dovrebbe "trampolare" dai farma ....c'è un titolo che ritengo comprabile a questi prezzi ed è SANOFI anche perchè sta sviluppando in fase due il vaccino antivirus dei polli.

l'influenza aviaria come elemento toro - gz  

  By: GZ on Martedì 11 Ottobre 2005 12:45

L'elemento positivo del mese è l'epidemia di paura sparsa sui media per l'influenza aviaria (scenari di milioni di possibili morti...) per la quale sembra ora che ^vogliano anche vaccinarci senza motivo#http://www.altroconsumo.it/map/show/25511/src/88061.htm^ Mi viene in mente che la grande paura per la SARS due estati fa ha coinciso con l'inizio del boom delle borse asiatiche (sono partite esattamente dal momento in tutti parlavano di SARS e salite del +50% tutte). (per la cronaca dopo mesi di previsioni di disastro il totale dei morti della SARS è stato intorno a 300 persone quasi tutte in Asia (gli incidenti stradali fanno mezzo milione di vittime l'anno....) Ormai comincia ad essere qualche anno che seguo la borsa e comincio a ricordare ad esempio: i) la paura diffusa sui media nell'estate 1999 per il Baco" dei Computer Dell'Anno 2000 (molti computer avrebbero smesso di funzionare il 1 gennaio 2000). Le borse fecero un +30% fino a marzo 2000 ii) la paura della Guerra in Afganistan a novembre 2001 (l'"inverno afgano" che avrebbe impantanato i marines si è poi scoperto che è meno freddo che in europa): tutto finito in tre settimane di combattimenti e un rimbalzo dei mercati da novembre 2001 fino ad aprile 2002 iii) la paura della Guerra in Iraq e del terrorismo collegato, anche qui inizia la guerra in marzo 2003 e continua (secondo quanto leggi ogni giorno) in modo totalmente disastroso anche oggi: le borse da allora sono salite da un minimo del 60% al 100% Più in generale è almeno dai tempi della grande paura dell'AIDS, quando sembrava che dovevi girare sempre con le tasche piene di preservativi per arrivare vivo alla fine dell'anno, che sono stato bombardato di paure mediatiche di epidemie e disastri e facendo un bilancio sono ^rari i casi in cui erano giustificate#http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/health/article.jsp?content=20051003_113117_113117^

 

  By: gianlini on Lunedì 29 Novembre 2004 12:16

LE MINIERE PIU' PERICOLOSE AL MONDO - Al computo totale degli incidenti sul lavoro avvenuti in Cina va aggiunta un'ulteriore vittima in un'altra miniera di carbone, nella provincia sud-occidentale dello Yunnan, ove si è verificata un'esplosione sempre a causa del gas, risalente a sabato pomeriggio ma della quale è stata data notizia solo adesso; quattro i feriti. Ogni anno in Cina muoiono in media oltre settemila minatori negli impianti estrattivi, considerati in assoluto i più pericolosi al mondo. ----------------------------- 7000 all'anno!!! avete mai sentito di dimostrazioni di Greenpeace o di qualche sciopero nelle nostrane scuole per questa autentica strage?? ma se per caso un operaio rimane con il dito incastrato in una leva di comando di una centrale nucleare subito scatta lo scandalo e la protesta per l'insicurezza della tecnologia!

 

  By: GZ on Lunedì 22 Novembre 2004 20:09

Andando oggi a guardare dentro gli ETF (Ishares) quotati a NY che sono dozzine c'è questo indice delle 25 cinesi maggiori appena creato, FXI, che si comporta bene

 

  By: Gilberto on Mercoledì 27 Ottobre 2004 17:14

Cina, epidemia di peste bubbonica Agricoltori morsi dai roditori, 8 morti Otto persone sono morte in Cina per un'epidemia di peste bubbonica che ha fatto registrare in totale 19 casi nella provincia nord-occidentale di Qinghai. Si tratta in gran parte di agricoltori e allevatori di Paesi delle contee di Ulan e Nangquen, che hanno riportato i sintomi della peste tra il 4 e il 9 ottobre, dopo essere stati morsi da roditori. Non appena i medici inviati sul posto sono riusciti a contenere l'epidemia. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fermata la SARS , ma tra polmoniti atipiche , influenze aviarie che passano dai polli agli uomini e ora casi di peste bubbonica , la Cina , dal punto di vista igienico sanitario è un immneso lazzaretto !!

il ciclo della Cina sta scendendo - gz  

  By: GZ on Domenica 24 Ottobre 2004 15:43

Andy Xie l'economista cinese di Morgan Stanley e' il migliore che mi sia capitato di leggere sulla Cina. E' una fortuna che si possano leggere semi-gratis le opinioni di uno cosi' bravo e prenderei appunti perche' ci sono idee ottime oggi qui Per quanto riguarda la rivalutazione della valuta penso abbia ragione, il quadro che fa e' plausibile e se e' vero che il 50% dei crediti bancari alle imprese e immobiliari sono incagliati perche' sono stati spinti dai funzionari di partito per motivi politici allora forse alla fine svalutano !. Per quanto riguarda poi il cibo cinese a cui accennavo, Xie nota che le societa' occidentali che finora stanno sfondando in Cina sono le catene di ristoranti americani fast food perche' sono gli unici posti che garantiscono uno standard di qualita' e igiene costante! Bella anche la sua osservazione su WalMart e gli ipermercati in Cina --------------------------------------------------------------- MONDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2004 online.barrons.com/ Morgan Stanley's iconclastic China watcher sees further drops in stocks WHEN CHINESE OFFICIALS BEGAN making noises about tightening credit last year, Andy Xie advised Morgan Stanley's clients that he was turning negative on China. At the time, many investors believed China was merely tapping on the brakes to bring world's fastest growth rate down to a stable cruising speed, which would let equities continue their seemingly unstoppable advance. But Xie watched with growing concern as the central bank raised deposit reserve requirements, and then as the Politburo decided to restrict new lending in steel, aluminum, autos and real estate. And although China may indeed still be trying to engineer a soft landing, the boyish, soft-spoken economist argues, the game is over for investors. The downturn will last for at least a year longer, and Chinese stocks "are nowhere near the bottom," he asserts. And if you want to play China's historic growth? Xie's surprising answer is to buy a handful of American blue-chip companies making inroads into the Middle Kingdom. Many investors already pay attention to Xie, 44 (his name is pronounced "Shea"), who as Morgan Stanley's chief Asia Pacific economist has received a raft of awards from the likes of Caijing, a prominent Mainland finance magazine, and Institutional Investor. He's known for incisive commentary and for traveling further afield than many emerging-markets investors claim to. Anybody else interested in what Morgan Stanley's own chief global economist Stephen Roach dubs "the world's most powerful growth story" would do well to listen to Xie. Cheah Cheng Hye, the well-regarded chief investment officer of Value Partners in Hong Kong, says, "Andy Xie is one of a small number of economists even a bottom-up investor like me has to pay a lot of attention to." Cheah calls Xie's work "original" and "sharp," and says Xie isn't afraid to tell investors what they don't want to hear. Andy Xie's China plays: McDonald's, Wal-Mart. Roach, Xie's boss -- who's notorious for optimism about the Mainland -- says Xie "taught me everything I know about China." Indeed, Roach lately is revising his shorter-term view of China to reflect Xie's caution. His first call after joining Morgan Stanley in '97 was that China would plunge into deflation -- unless it followed South Korea in devaluing its currency. He also said Hong Kong's real-estate bubble would collapse. He was right. In '99, as China prepared to enter the World Trade Organization, he turned bullish. "Most people thought 'WTO -- so what'? I thought, 'it's the start of an investment cycle.' In China, which is boom-bust, it's all about the catalyst for the investment cycle." Many investors have run aground on China before, in part because of a dysfunctional financial system and a politically directed economy. Two forces drive China's economic cycles: the Federal Reserve, which regulates U.S. demand for China's exports, and the Communist Party, which mints new officials every five years after the Party Congress. The new officials routinely push for new investment. More recently, the two forces coincided. Then Chinese officials began to fear the inevitable bust. "My job is to predict cycles right, and the boom-bust cycle is driven by politics," says Xie. Thus, the giant sell signal indicated by the Politburo's lending restrictions. And cycles last surprisingly long. Historically, it takes about two years for China's investment growth rate to bottom when the cycle turns sour. China's average investment growth rate is 12% to 15%. The current growth rate, at 30%, is still twice as high. "The consensus view about China is that the worst is behind us," says Xie, but "This is just the beginning." Xie recently cut his 2005 Chinese-growth forecast to 7%. He thinks GDP will grow 9.5% this year. The Mainland's economy slowed markedly in April, but turned higher as the government began hinting that previous tightening measures had been sufficient to achieve its goals. After the Party's central committee met several weeks ago and made dovish noises about credit, Xie prepared for another wave of speculation. Most investors, in contrast, think that slowing money-supply growth and China's need to boost investments in its underdeveloped interior suggest that the next move will be an easing. They're wrong, Xie says. For all that China has restricted new lending, it hasn't been able to raise interest rates because it fears inviting more speculation, as well as a crash in the property market. Shanghai is a case in point. At the heart of Shanghai's real-estate boom are the Taiwanese, who are betting that both China's currency and property values will rise. That's why Shanghai property has defied three increases in U.S. short-term rates. Last year, the value of new residential property was equivalent to 17% of Shanghai's economic output. Most of the speculators are likely to lose their shirts, he says. A trigger for the downturn might be a rash of inflation scares ahead, as rising food and fuel prices erode factory-workers' wages -- and as a result, migrant workers refuse to show up. That's already happening in some places. That's bad news for Japan and South Korea, which are suffering from a slowdown in capital-equipment exports. And boom-bust cycles, while creating gross-domestic product growth, "don't create value for capital," says Xie, adding, "I think that Chinese stocks are still overvalued." The H-share index -- Chinese companies with secondary listings in Hong Kong -- is creeping back to last December's levels, but is off 17% from its peak of 5,391.28. The "H" share index is China's most representative, Xie relates, and is stuffed with cyclicals. The bottom, he says, is when the index trades below book value. At the moment, it trades at twice book, and 15 times peak earnings, even though Chinese companies sport some of the lowest returns on equity around. Xie is recommending instead that investors own Taiwan and Hong Kong. Although the two have needed to raise interest rates, domestic demand is on the upswing. And those betting on an imminent revaluation of China's currency, including President Bush, will be disappointed; the renminbi, says Xie, "is not going to be revalued for at least two years." China's banking system is rife with bad debt, and boosting the currency will reduce export revenue and make repayments tougher. When China does revalue, Xie figures the currency will fall, not rise, as the central bank prints money to help banks restructure portfolios of soured loans. Xie recommends U.S. investors seeking to avoid the wild rides of China's bourses instead should own consumer brands such as Yum Brands, with its Kentucky Fried Chicken franchises, and McDonald's, which are creating valuable consumer franchises. The one-child policy has created a nation of spoiled children, and trips to KFC are good ways to spoil Junior. This view was cemented on a hot, dusty trip to Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province. That's when Xie saw that KFC and McDonald's managed to keep their restaurants clean amidst the chaos, suggesting higher standards that would attract customers. "Office girls don't want to sit next to a guy smoking cigarettes in a dirty restaurant. These two companies are creating the most valuable franchises in China. If you're really bullish about China, buy these two companies." Hypermarkets, Xie argues, also obviate the need for increased government regulation by ensuring quality merchandise themselves. A big advantage is that population density in Chinese cities is three-to-four times greater than for a U.S. city. Sales volumes are greater as a result. "They're driving out local retail competitors. Hypermarkets will be the main distribution channel. Wal-Mart will become huge in China! It is just beginning."

 

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 28 Gennaio 2004 21:37

il nostro amico il China Fund oggi perde il -8% ^era un bello short quello indicato ieri no ?#www.cobraf.com/abbonati/articolo.asp?id=17990&Tart=E^

 

  By: GZ on Martedì 27 Gennaio 2004 21:17

il nostro amico il ^China Fund#^ ha fatto fortuna, ora mostra un un modesto sovraprezzo del +57% sul suo NAV ... --------------------------------------------------- (From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL) By Craig Karmin and Joel Baglole ........... Take the China Fund, a closed-end fund that trades on the New York Stock Exchange and invests in small and medium-size Chinese stocks. The fund, whose largest holding is in Sohu.com, rose 77% last year. More amazing, the $280 million fund, which is about 60% owned by individual investors, trades at a 57% percent premium to the value of its stock holdings. .... Not surprisingly, co-manager Shifeng Ke, a director at asset-management firm Martin Currie, based in Edinburgh, Scotland, says Chinese Internet stocks are just starting their runs, though he's unloading some more-mundane names, such asConch Cement, on valuation concerns.

 

  By: gianlini on Venerdì 24 Ottobre 2003 00:26

rivendute le put a 5,90

 

  By: gianlini on Lunedì 20 Ottobre 2003 19:57

comprate put 40 a 4,50 si sta delineando un doppio massimo con volumi scarsi sul secondo max

 

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 08 Ottobre 2003 16:10

mah... i titoli cinesi e giappponesi stanno scricchiolando un poco oggi, ma SINA è stato "adottato" dai trader americani e bisogna che il settore selvaggio mostri di essere stanco, ieri sera sembrava di no

 

  By: gianlini on Mercoledì 08 Ottobre 2003 00:37

SINA che dice Zibordi, riproviamo? o aspettiamo che torni a 43-44?

 

  By: gianlini on Lunedì 06 Ottobre 2003 00:12

è per quello che è meglio dedicarsi al trading che ad altre attività economiche

la cina è ora anche un pericolo ? - blizzard  

  By: blizzard on Lunedì 06 Ottobre 2003 00:12