dietrologia : e' stata la fed a comprare - Gzibordi
By: GZ on Venerdì 10 Maggio 2002 02:25
c'è chi sospetta che dietro al rally di ieri a wall street ci possa essere stata la FED
cioè che sia intervenuta direttamente sul mercato comprando titoli
i) il rally si è svolto senza nessuna pausa, nemmeno minima, nonostante si sia sentito di diversi grossi operatori che a metà giornata vendevano (solo la FED ha questo tipo di potere d'acquisto per spazzare il mercato)
ii) sono stati colpiti in modo scientifico con acquisti tutti i titoli su cui le % di scoperto erano maggiori, uno per uno
(questo ricorda molto bene la tecnica che le banche centrali usano sui cambi per fargli cambiare direzione
e qui direi che qualcosa sembra anche a me vero per quello che ho visto diverse volte sullo yen ad es.)
This kind of a rally was extraordinary ... so extraordinary that I have to consider buying power outside of the bounds of the usual technical, short-covering bear market rally variety," he said. "And I can't help coming to the conclusion that covert Fed intervention may have been present today."
As I said late Wednesday in RealMoney's Columnist Conversation, that's a delicious conspiracy theory because, like all great conspiracy theories, it can't be proved or disproved. But as the minutes of the FOMC's Jan. 29-30 meeting revealed, the Fed has discussed "unconventional" steps it could take in a zero or very low interest rate environment. Theoretically, these steps could entail open market purchases of equity futures in an effort to give the market a lift and compel short-sellers to cover.
Maybe they decide to "test" them Wednesday?
"Whoever or whatever was buying yesterday targeted the shorts in the equity and futures markets, which reminded me of my days as a prop foreign exchange trader ... when the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, or the Bundesbank entered the [foreign exchange] market to support or 'redirect' their currency by relentlessly driving the shorts out of their accumulated large positions," recalled Michael Paulenoff, founder of 2MStrategies.com. "My gut tells me that yesterday's relentless action hinted at that kind of buying power -- and lord knows, the up move came at a very vulnerable time for U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy."
Paulenoff denied having any knowledge of such activities, but noted there was nary a "hiccup to the downside" Wednesday even though many traders claimed to be selling into the rally. Fed officials don't speak to the press during weeks of FOMC meetings, so they're not talking -- not that they would ever admit to such activities if it were true.
But if there is "any grain of truth" to theory, and "the 'powers that be' are intent on keeping the upside pressure intact," Paulenoff expects "to see tail winds from yesterday's advance propel stocks higher for a while, until more of the huge short position is knocked out."
Edited by - gzibordi on 5/10/2002 1:36:27