DOLLARO e YEN

Come rimpiazzareil dollaro ??(valuta di riserva mondiale) http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm

E-bay... Davvero non so più che dire. L'altro giorno è uscito l'ennesimo report su Apple: un bel "Buy" con target a 550

Oggi il miglior titolo del NQ100 è EBAY a +8% Questo è il motivo: EBay Inc (EBAY.O) expects revenue at its PayPal unit to double by 2013 as it sought on Thursday to cast itself as a reinvented company and an innovator at the center of e-commerce. Chief Executive John Donahoe characterized eBay as leading a consumer-driven move to make e-commerce faster and more convenient. He said consumers already have a "store in their pocket" because of smartphones that allow them to surf the Internet, shop and pay in one go. "We're at an inflection point where tech-driven innovation is broadly shaping e-commerce and shifting consumer behavior. This shift is creating new global opportunities for our company," he said. "We are driving the next generation of e-commerce." PayPal mobile transactions are estimated to double to $2 billion in total payment volume this year, executives said. The company has already announced that mobile on marketplaces will double to $4 billion in gross merchandise volume this year. _______________________________________ In sostanza il sistema di pagamento tramite Paypal, grazie alla diffusione degli smartphone e per comprare gli stessi apparecchi hi-tech (sembra una specie di ossimoro, ma è così) dovrebbe raddoppiare quest' anno i pagamenti effettuati. Dunque non si produce nulla di nuovo, nè vi è una innovazione tecnologica, ma soltanto si dovrebbero spendere più in fretta circa 1 Miliardo di USD (che probabilmente si sarebbero spesi comunque tramite altri canali) Non approfondisco oltre, perchè mi sembra evidente che il guadagno di produttività per il sistema sia tutto da dimostrare... ma lasciamo perdere, per il momento.. La sostanza è che questo rialzo si basa sulla presenza illimitata di liquidità da spendere, in assenza della quale, i profitti si azzererebbero, visto che Ebay non produce nulla, la sua capitalizzazione è lamciata verso i 50 Miliardi di USD (per rendere l' idea, Morgan Stanley oggi viene superata, mentre colossi come MMM e CAT, capitalizzano poco più del 20% in più, pur trovandosi ai loro rispettivi massimi storici, altrimenti varrebbero uguale, a Novembre scorso era più o meno così). Qualcuno dirà che un PE di 26 non è eccessivo, che AAPL, ad es., vale oramai quasi quanto EXXON e questo dovrebbe essere ancora più assurdo …. Francamente EBay si basa solo su questo… http://finance.yahoo.com/news/January-deficit-grows-by-50B-apf-1040737723.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode= ed il resto delle considerazioni le lascio a voi

Come dicevo ieri, aumentano i segnali di un movimento impulsivo di inversione dello yen

Okkio a partire da oggi e per le prossime settimane al cross eurjpy. Sembra prossimo a sferrare un nuovo attacco, dopo i molti falliti lo scorso anno, a quota 114,5

^Piove#http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7FzLzzlRRU&feature=fvst^

"la frode e la complicita sono diventati il sangue stesso del sistema..." ci va giu peso il Durden http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-united-states-organized-financial-crime-if-fraud-stops-financial-system-collapses

Consiglio la letttura di questo articolo pubblicato anche sul sole 24 ore del 5 Gennaio http://rassegnastampa.mef.gov.it/mefnazionale/View.aspx?ID=2011010517556780-1 L'articolo è interessante e onestamente dipinge uno scenario abbastanza sconvolgente. Sono andato indietro a vedere cosa questo signore aveva scritto rpecedentemente e nel 2008 aveva effettivamente previsto i movimenti valutari dell'euro e del dollaro che si sono poi avuti nei due anni successivi http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/Finanza%20e%20Mercati/2008/04/dollaro-abdica-favore-euro.shtml?uuid=f22bd5f4-014b-11dd-9cf0-00000e251029&DocRulesView=Libero&fromSearch

GRANDE ESTEBAN , L'IMPORTANTE DI QUESTE RICERCHE' E' CHE FACCIANO CAPIRE A CHI NON HA IL PROSCIUTTO SUGLI OCCHI QUELLO CHE HAI NOTATO TU...... ( IL $ CANADESE VA FORTE , COME DA MOLTI PREVISTO....)

Ok ... ma quell'affare PPP tiene conto delle passività ? Intendo i trilioni di debito ... perchè altrimenti è relativo ... sino a quale punto si può ancora sostenere che il purchasing power parity è ancora affidabile ? Non è evidente di come le economie emergenti hanno le proprie valute più "sane" proprio perchè non stampano e hanno vantaggio da economia "sana" rispetto alle occidentali ridotte a groviera ? Se si guarda alla comparazione con il $ canadese si nota che pure l'euro è sotto zero !!! provate a confrontare il PPP prendendo come base la CINA e la russia che NON HANNO DEBITO e si scopre che tutto il pianeta è SOTTOVALUTATO ??? A me sembra una stronzata ... lo zero dovrebbe essere cina o russia ... Si dovrebbe cioè dire che la valuta cinese e russa sono coerenti , mentre le altre £ ,$ ,€, Y sono pessime valute perchè le hanno svalutate stampando ... Quindi , quardare al PPP e pensare che lo suisse sia sopravvalutato in momenti di DEFAULT di nazioni e debiti disastrati NON HA SENSO ... Non è il suisse il rublo lo yuan (e valute emergenti sane) che sono sopravvalutate e quindi devono scendere ... piuttosto sono le forti occidentali che devono svalutarsi ulteriormente causa i loro debiti !!!

trovo interessantissimo tenere d'occhio questo indice...si puo' scoprire che poi l'euro non e' cosi' sopravvalatato sul $ ma che non ha l'elasticita' e l'omogeneita' socioeconomica di questo..... Purchasing Power Parity What is Purchasing Power Parity? Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a theory which states that exchange rates between currencies are in equilibrium when their purchasing power is the same in each of the two countries. This means that the exchange rate between two countries should equal the ratio of the two countries' price level of a fixed basket of goods and services. When a country's domestic price level is increasing (i.e., a country experiences inflation), that country's exchange rate must depreciated in order to return to PPP. The basis for PPP is the "law of one price". In the absence of transportation and other transaction costs, competitive markets will equalize the price of an identical good in two countries when the prices are expressed in the same currency. For example, a particular TV set that sells for 750 Canadian Dollars [CAD] in Vancouver should cost 500 US Dollars [USD] in Seattle when the exchange rate between Canada and the US is 1.50 CAD/USD. If the price of the TV in Vancouver was only 700 CAD, consumers in Seattle would prefer buying the TV set in Vancouver. If this process (called "arbitrage") is carried out at a large scale, the US consumers buying Canadian goods will bid up the value of the Canadian Dollar, thus making Canadian goods more costly to them. This process continues until the goods have again the same price. There are three caveats with this law of one price. (1) As mentioned above, transportation costs, barriers to trade, and other transaction costs, can be significant. (2) There must be competitive markets for the goods and services in both countries. (3) The law of one price only applies to tradeable goods; immobile goods such as houses, and many services that are local, are of course not traded between countries. Economists use two versions of Purchasing Power Parity: absolute PPP and relative PPP. Absolute PPP was described in the previous paragraph; it refers to the equalization of price levels across countries. Put formally, the exchange rate between Canada and the United States ECAD/USD is equal to the price level in Canada PCAN divided by the price level in the United States PUSA. Assume that the price level ratio PCAD/PUSD implies a PPP exchange rate of 1.3 CAD per 1 USD. If today's exchange rate ECAD/USD is 1.5 CAD per 1 USD, PPP theory implies that the CAD will appreciate (get stronger) against the USD, and the USD will in turn depreciate (get weaker) against the CAD. Relative PPP refers to rates of changes of price levels, that is, inflation rates. This proposition states that the rate of appreciation of a currency is equal to the difference in inflation rates between the foreign and the home country. For example, if Canada has an inflation rate of 1% and the US has an inflation rate of 3%, the US Dollar will depreciate against the Canadian Dollar by 2% per year. This proposition holds well empirically especially when the inflation differences are large. Does PPP determine exchange rates in the short term? No. Exchange rate movements in the short term are news-driven. Announcements about interest rate changes, changes in perception of the growth path of economies and the like are all factors that drive exchange rates in the short run. PPP, by comparison, describes the long run behaviour of exchange rates. The economic forces behind PPP will eventually equalize the purchasing power of currencies. This can take many years, however. A time horizon of 4-10 years would be typical. How is PPP calculated? The simplest way to calculate purchasing power parity between two countries is to compare the price of a "standard" good that is in fact identical across countries. Every year The Economist magazine publishes a light-hearted version of PPP: its "Hamburger Index" that compares the price of a McDonald's hamburger around the world. More sophisticated versions of PPP look at a large number of goods and services. One of the key problems is that people in different countries consumer very different sets of goods and services, making it difficult to compare the purchasing power between countries. According to PPP, by how much are currencies overvalued or undervalued? The following two charts compare the PPP of a currency with its actual exchange rate relative to the US Dollar and relative to the Canadian Dollar, respectively. The charts are updated periodically to reflect the current exchange rate. It is also updated once a year to reflect new estimates of PPP. The PPP estimates are taken from studies carried out by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and others; however, they should not be taken as "definitive". Different methods of calculation will arrive at different PPP rates. The currencies listed below are compared to the US Dollar. A green bar indicated that the local currency is overvalued by the percentage figure shown on the axis; the currency is thus expected to depreciate against the US Dollar in the long run. A red bar indicates undervaluation of the local currency; the currency is thus expected to appreciate against the US Dollar in the long run. The currencies listed below are compared to the Canadian Dollar. A green bar indicated that the local currency is overvalued by the percentage figure shown on the axis; the currency is thus expected to depreciate against the Canadian Dollar in the long run. A red bar indicates undervaluation of the local currency; the currency is thus expected to appreciate against the Canadian Dollar in the long run. The currencies listed below are compared to the European Euro. A green bar indicated that the local currency is overvalued by the percentage figure shown on the axis; the currency is thus expected to depreciate against the Euro in the long run. A red bar indicates undervaluation of the local currency; the currency is thus expected to appreciate against the Euro in the long run. Where can I get more information? • OECD National Accounts: The OECD publishes PPPs for all OECD countries. You can retrieve the PDF file with the 2004 PPP rates from this site. Also available is a table with the OECD's 1970-2004 PPP rates (also available as an Excel file). This is a comma-seprated file that can be easily imported into a spreadsheet program. • From The Economist magazine: The Big Mac Index - as they put it "The world's most accurate financial indicator (to be based on a fast food item), with a ten-year retrospective on burgernomics" • Wilfred J. Ethier: Modern International Economics, 3rd edition. W. W. Norton & Comp., New York/London: 1995. Chapter 18, section 2 on "Price Linkages" contains an excellent non-technical overview of PPP • Kenneth Rogoff: The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle, Journal of Economic Literature, 34(2), June 1996, pages 647-668. This recent survey provides an overview of developments with respect to research on PPP, including the emerging consensus that deviations from PPP do damp out but only very slowly, at roughly fifteen percent per year. It remains difficult to explain why the estimated speed of convergence to PPP is so slow. • For the more technically minded, I recommend searching the EconLit database for recent research papers on PPP. This is a very active branch of economic research, both theoretically and empirically. http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/PPP.html

Stiamo uscendo solo in questo momento da questa bocca di zucca di Halloween, era ora, non ne potevo più di vedermela davanti. Cavolo, 20 giorni di tedio, eccheppalle!

China must Kill the Dollar Non appena parte il dollaro esce l'articolo. http://economicassassin.blogspot.com/2010/12/china-must-kill-dollar.html

Puo' darsi. Ma gli analisti finanziari cinesi si staranno ora sicuramente buttando via dalle risate ripensando a quei loro colleghi americani che meno di un anno fa parlavano del sistema creditizio cinese oramai marcio e vicino al collasso (*)... (*) Anche perche' probabilmente parte di quegli stessi colleghi americani lavoravano per le finanziarie o le banche travolte dalla crisi del subprime...