By: Mr.Fog on Giovedì 14 Luglio 2005 18:13
Raccolta di pensieri...da leggere anche se in inglese.
Yet while this is perhaps the single most important factor there has to be another factor involved here as yields have continued to stay low during 2005 despite decreased central bank purchases . During the first quarter inflow of foreign central bank purchases of U.S. government securities fell from an average $78 billion per quarter to $40 billion, yet yields only rose slightly (and has since returned to the previous lows). This factor must explain why by contrast foreign private purchases of U.S. government securities rose from an average of $26 billion per quarter to $75 billion the first quarter this year.
Many investors buy Notes and Bonds not so much because of the yield they currently give but because of a hope that their price will rise, just like most stock investors do not buy stocks primarily because of the dividend they give but because they hope stock prices will rise- And if investors believe that short-term interest rates will stay low then long-term securities will give a much higher return then the nominal yield.
For many investors the high level of debt in U.S. households makes it unlikely that the Fed would dare increase interest rates even more. Similarly, the sluggish growth and/or high debt burden in other rich countries have also increased expectations of continued low short-term interest rates there.
Based on revenue and spending data through June, the budget deficit for the first nine months of the fiscal year was $251 billion, $76 billion lower than the $327 billion gap recorded at the corresponding point a year earlier.
The big surprise has been in tax revenue, which is running nearly 15 percent higher than in 2004. Corporate tax revenue has soared about 40 percent, after languishing for four years, and individual tax revenue is up as well.
Most of the increase in individual tax receipts appears to have come from higher stock market gains and the business income of relatively wealthy taxpayers. The biggest jump was not from taxes withheld from salaries but from quarterly payments on investment gains and business earnings, which were up 20 percent this year.
the current Russell Crowe film, is about depression-era boxer James Braddock. In what is becoming the Crowe signature, here again is a tough-guy hero who suffers mightily for his family. The movie offers a scary view of the Great Depression, especially "Hooverville" in Central Park, and levels of hardship which seem anachronistically implausible amidst today's affluence entitlement.
Nel 2004 la Cina è stata la nazione con maggiori investimenti diretti stranieri, pari a 60 miliardi di dollari Usa. Le imprese estere hanno dato lavoro a 24 milioni di persone, pari al 10% della forza lavoro cinese non agricola. Negli ultimi anni ha ricevuto investimenti esteri per oltre 584 miliardi di dollari. Alla fine dello scorso maggio, il numero delle ditte estere che hanno operato investimenti è arrivato a 525.378. Secondo la Asian Development Bank, la Cina ha avuto investimenti esteri per un importo 5 volte superiore a tutto il Sudest asiatico e 14 volta maggiori dell’India.
Dal sito web del Ministero del Commercio risulta che gli investimenti esteri sono diminuiti dello 0,8% nei primi 5 mesi del 2005, pari a 28,6 miliardi di dollari. I contratti con imprese estere per investimenti nel Paese sono aumentati di circa il 19% nello stesso periodo, ma si tratta di somme non ancora utilizzate. Frank Gong, esperto economico della JP Morgan Stanley, ha dichiarato che “c’è un problema di offerta superiore al necessario, che causa una restrizione del profitto.” “I settori dove non c’è eccessiva offerta, come le ferrovie, sono quelli dove è arduo un finanziamento estero senza che il governo voglia intervenire, cosa che li rende poco appetibili”. (PB)
Investors stared into the terror abyss last week and did not blink. Investors stare into the $60 oil abyss and do not blink.
All we need to get us above the resistance levels of Nasdaq 2,180, S&P 500 at 1,235, Dow 10,620, Philly Semiconductor Index 463 and Russell 2000 at 677 are the earnings we expect to surprise to the upside.