By: angelo on Lunedì 08 Ottobre 2007 18:48
pare che Niederhoffer abbia di nuovo toppato alla grande (con i subprime)
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Si dice che Il Matador fund (il recente campione dei rendimenti e dei bassi drawdown, più volte incensato anche su questo forum) abbia perso il 75% e sia stato chiuso.
Ma i sub prime pare che c'entrino poco, ha toppato esattamente come nel 1997:
The surge in volatility prompted the Chicago Merc to raise its margin requirements for options on S. & P. 500 Index futures twice, first from two per cent to three per cent, and then from three per cent to four per cent.
Niederhoffer was asked to double the amount of capital supporting his positions, and he found it difficult to raise the necessary cash. Some of his investments had lost a lot of their value, and the value of others was difficult to determine.
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As Niederhoffer’s financial situation deteriorated, ADM Investor Services, a Chicago-based brokerage firm that caters to futures traders, ordered him to liquidate some of his options positions. Working late into the night, Niederhoffer berated himself for leaving himself so exposed.
Referring to the margin calls, he said to one acquaintance, “I shouldn’t have been in the position where it could have had such an impact.” Despite the lessons of 1997, and the precautions he had taken, he was again in over his head.
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Vedi ^qui..#http://www.nypost.com/seven/1007200...r_hit_again.htm^
e ^qui#http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/...?printable=true^
Tempo fa - e ripetutamente - qualcuno sul forum Cobraf incensava Niederhoffer e tutte le sue teorie sul "mean reverting trading".
Qualcun altro, molto modestamente, aveva provato a far notare che - da quello che VN diceva (Domanda: "Cosa hai cambiato nel modo di investire dal 1997?" Risposta: "la cosa principale è che non investo più in Thailandia") egli era semplicemente .....an accident waiting to happen.
Ma con poca "presa" sugli altri partecipanti. Il fatto è che i tipi come Niederhoffer sembrano sempre più intelligenti della media, negli incontri intellettuali del giovedì sera...
Oggi, dopo le nuove notizie (prima filtrate su Elite Trader, a cui VN scrisse adirato poche settimane fà, intimando a quel sito di cancellare le "calunnie" scritte sulle sue performances....... ) ci potrebbe forse essere spazio per un ripensamento anche su questo, ma il bello dei forum è che si svolgono discussioni anche animate ma poi ognuno fondamentalmente rimane sempre della propria idea...
PS a leggerlo, pare che neanche stavolta abbia tratto molti insegnamenti dalla debacle...
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Still, Niederhoffer sounded philosophical. “The market was not as liquid as I anticipated,” he said. “The movements in volatility were greater than I had anticipated. We were prepared for many different contingencies, but this kind of one we were not prepared for.” Niederhoffer was still trading for his own account, and for some remaining clients. “My basic ideas about the creative power of the market, buying in panics, buying on weakness—I don’t think what has happened has anything to do with that stuff,” he said. “I am going to keep going, for better or worse.” ♦