Scudi spaziali, dischi rotanti e Ayatollah

Il treno è in ritardo - gz  

  By: GZ on Venerdì 14 Marzo 2003 17:08

Il "treno della morte" annunciato da Al Qaeda il 2 marzo è un poco in ritardo, ma si sa che con questi blocchi dei treni, magari i pacifisti non sono stati troppo attenti e hanno incagliato anche quello. Può darsi che venga smentito molto presto, può darsi che debbano attendere l'ordine quando inizia l'invasione, ma ormai dopo l'11 settembre 2001 sono passati 18 mesi e in europa e USA non c'è stato un solo attentato riuscito rilevante. In Pakistan, Tunisia, Filippine, Indonesia, Kenia, Giordania, Yemen anche Kuwait hanno ammazzato e fatto saltare parecchia gente e sono riusciti a prendere dentro turisti, tecnici e altri lavoratori occidentali di vario genere, ma anche il proclama ultimo di bin ladin benchè condito con molta poesia e la promessa di morire lui stesso in azione ormai è vecchio di un mese. Sembra invece che nell'attesa del "treno della morte" di Al Qaeda dopo una serie di ritardi stia arrivando qualche cosa d'altro ----------------------------------------------------- (ASCA) - Washington, 14 mar - Ora e' ufficiale: il presidente americano George W. Bush, il Primo ministro britannico Tony Blair e il capo del governo spagnolo Jose' Maria Aznar si incontreranno domenica alle Azzorre (nel Portogallo) per il vertice sull'Iraq: lo ha confermato oggi il portavoce della Casa Bianca Ari Fleischer. Modificato da - gz on 3/14/2003 16:9:36

 

  By: gianlini on Domenica 02 Marzo 2003 16:35

Spero solo che questa non sia un'azzeccata ricostruzione ex-post!!! altrimenti è veramente terrificante!

 

  By: banshee on Domenica 02 Marzo 2003 01:33

Awaiting the Train of Death by Mark Aaron Robinson On the 24th of February Al Qaeda posted an ominous threat on the alfjr.com website. Middle East Media Research Institute posted an English translation two days later. The Al Qaeda messenger, a self-proclaimed “Prince of Philosophy”, boasted that “the train of death is on its way,” and stated that it will arrive in a “little more than 10 or less.” Most commentators are taking that to mean an attack is planned for 10 days from February 24th, but I don’t think so. The phrasing is intentionally oblique, and does not include “days” as a unit of measurement. It reminds me of two previous Al Qaeda missives for several reasons. First, last November Osama Bin Laden broke his long silence–a silence that began with the U.S. bombardment of the Tora Bora cave complex in Afghanistan. In that message, Bin Laden made reference to Mongol leaders too obscure in history to have meaning to all but a tiny minority of his audience. However, I seem to be a minority in a lot of venues. And I believe I found a hidden message in those obscure references that points to an attack on the U.S. on Ashura, which commemorates the death of Imam husain, the “father of the martyrs.” Ashura is celebrated on Musharran 10, or March 14, 2003 on the Gregorian calendar [See] This most recent reference to a “little more than 10 or less” appears to be a second veiled reference to Musharran 10. Note that a “little more than 10 or less” is really just a Cheshire cat way of saying 10 ± a little is still 10. And it’s also worthy of consideration that in Islam, “the philosophy of jihad is the philosophy of life.” Therefore, a reference to the “Prince of Philosophy” not only points to Bin Laden as the issuer of fatwas (philosophical religious rulings), but it also points back to the “father of the martyrs” and Musharran 10. One might argue that tying the two references together is a stretch. But another Al Qaeda message right after Thanksgiving last year leads me to think otherwise. In that message, Al Qaeda stated that an attack was eminent, that “the Zero hour” had come, and that it was “6:20 hours.” I reasoned that the Muslim “zero hour” was 622 AD because that is when the Muslim calendar begins, and that if it was 6:20 when the message was posted, the attack would come at 6:22 hours–two days later. [See] Sure enough, two days later Al Qaeda attacked a hotel frequented by Israelis in Mombassa, Kenya. The attackers also tried to shoot down an airliner with stinger missiles, but missed–which only goes to show that there is a difference between having weapons and being able to use them. In his message, Al Qaeda messenger boasted, “Nobody knows what I mean.” Clearly, Al Qaeda thinks the West is ignorant of their dating system. And if my interpretation of their references to Muslim history in the other messages is correct, Bin laden and the lusters for the Hur (the virgins awaiting martyrs in paradise; see Sura 55:56) think no one in the West understands their history or eschatology. May their pride go before their fall! The question remains, what is the “train of death”? There are both historical and fictional precedents to draw on. And I look to precedents because I don’t expect original ideas from Islamic terrorists –if some ancient Caliph, Adolph Hitler, or Hollywood didn’t think of it first, it’s not going to be on the agenda. After all, spending all your time reciting is not exactly conducive to creative thinking. But I digress… As a first appalling example, there is the “Train of Death” that the Nazis crowded with Jews as the Allies advanced on Berlin. The Nazis kept it rolling from place to place for three weeks without providing the Jews food and only a few drops of water. When the American Army caught up with it at the Dachau concentration camp, it held 2310 emaciated tortured bodies. Take a look, see where such madness leads. [See Scrapbook] Although Bin Laden doubtless applauds the work of the Nazis, he frankly has to do something bigger than that atrocity –anything less than the 9/11 attack in drama and death toll will relegate him to anticlimax–and Bin Laden cannot afford to be diminished in deed and stature at this point. Of course, there are scenarios for upping the ante, but I am not in the business of providing terrorists with ideas here. Another precedent that wants examination is Alistair MacLean’s novel, Death Train. The novel (and subsequent 1993 movie, Detonator) portrayed a train carrying a nuclear weapon to Iraq, of all places. However, a more recent makeover by DreamWorks, Inc., The Peacemaker, has the weapon diverted to New York City. Is this a plausible explanation? The Al Qaeda posting says they will “assault with speed, with the heat of a volcano, and the bombardment of thunders.” What do you think that means? One thing for sure, if Al Qaeda has such a device, or any other weapon of mass destruction, it’s because someone gave it to them. The Islamic world is not exactly a hot bed of scientific innovation or technical capacity. Videos of Al Qaeda experiments in Afghanistan indicate they’re hard-pressed to perform 8th grade level chemistry projects. And they can’t fly planes at our buildings unless we train them. So I repeat–Al Qaeda will not possess weapons of mass destruction unless someone else provides them, and they will not be able to use such weapons unless someone else trains them. That is something to think about.

 

  By: DOTT JOSE on Sabato 01 Marzo 2003 12:36

sicuramente sto treno non e' in italia.. olo ferma casarini and friends.. oppure arriva in ritardo..ahaha

Che i Treasury bond sappiano qualche cosa ? - gz  

  By: GZ on Venerdì 28 Febbraio 2003 22:16

Che i Treasury bond sappiano qualche cosa ? Sono usciti per due giorni di fila dati economici discreti (si potrebbe persino dire buoni visto che il Pil americano che doveva essere +0.7% è uscito a +1.4% per l'ultimo trimestre, che non è poco) e invece i Bond salgono in verticale accellerando in serata con uno dei balzi più grossi degli ultimi mesi Probabilmente molti operatori nel dubbio e nell'attesa - non comprano nè vendono le borse (i volumi da 3 settimane sono minimi), - l'oro lo lasciano stare perchè hanno visto che le banche centrali lo stanno vendendo pesantemente, - per le valute comprano solo l'australiano e canadese, per il resto yen, euro e swiss sono anche loro a zig-zag da due mesi - e allora si riempiono di bonds perchè sentono che la guerra è imminente. Guardando il calendario onu-ispettori-turchia-alleati ecc... non dovrebbe essere prima di 2-3 settimane ma potrebbe essere prima guardando ai bonds Modificato da - gz on 2/28/2003 21:20:49

 

  By: Leofab on Giovedì 27 Febbraio 2003 22:03

Bhe, Zibordi, forse sarebbe opportuno inviare l'ultimo messaggio all' FBI americana. Se casomai loro non l'hanno ancora notato. Intanto sembra che le truppe irachene si stiano asserragliando presso le moschee. Ad un'eventuale ingresso alleato c'è da vedere scagliare contro i fucili molti civili o, peggio, imam con vestiti da predica. Tutta questa confusione però insospettisce. Troppe parole, troppi annunci. E' davvero probabile una sommossa interna.

L'importanza di sapere le lingue - gz  

  By: GZ on Giovedì 27 Febbraio 2003 20:47

L'importanza di sapere le lingue Oggi si sono accorti in borsa che su questo sito affiliata a Al Qaeda da lunedì sera c'è una minaccia : "... il treno della morte è partito... entro 10 giorni ... ....nessuno potrà fermare i suoi passeggeri.." Se sono di parola ci sono ancora sette giorni per questo treno della morte (sempre poetici questi amici) ----------------------------------------------------- The writer said it is a "little more than 10 or less until we hear the cry announcing to us the good tidings of Allah's victory [coming] by the hands of our brethren, the jihad fighters. This is a serious matter and not a joke." "The operations have already been set," the pronouncement says, "and the lions have taken their positions and everything is complete. They are only waiting for permission from the heroic commander." MEMRI said the website is registered to Paris-based "AlFajr," and its technical contact is listed as DomainValet Support Department, located in Bellevue, Wash. The following is the main part of the exhortation: "Allah Akbar [Allah is the greatest], Allah Akbar. Here is victory appearing in the horizon. "Allah Akbar, here is the dawn of Islam that has arrived to bring an end to the night of unbelief, collaboration [with foreign powers] and hypocrisy. "Allah Akbar, die with your anger, oh herds of error. Allah Akbar, die with your wrath, oh gangs of [unjust Muslim] rulers. Allah Akbar, oh slaves: All of you are big slaves and small slaves, you and your masters. "Your shrouds are woven with gun powder and smoke, and your coffins are shells of fire and spearheads. "There is no rescue, nor escaping the earth, with all of its width and length [it] belongs to our Lord, the skies and their horizons belong to our Lord. You have nothing, oh slaves of the cross and slaves of the Dirham and Dinnar [currency used in the Arab world]. "Allah is our ally and you have no ally. Our dead go to Paradise and yours go to Hell, and how bad is their fate. "Allah Akbar. It is Paradise, a paradise as wide as the whole skies and earth. Rejoice, oh lovers of the Hur [i.e., the black-eyed virgins of Paradise] and the gardens [of Paradise] "Allah Akbar, it is the clear victory and the great triumph [promised by Allah]. By Allah, if you knew what I know, you would laugh much and you would go to your trenches crying with extreme joy, while you carry your arms. "Allah Akbar, here are the heroic soldiers of the truth. They have taken their positions and raised their swords and they shielded themselves with the protection and support of Allah. "Allah Akbar. Here are the lions ready to set out, waiting to hear the [battle cry] "Allah Akbar" coming from their commander, to assault with speed, with the heat of a volcano, and the bombardment of thunders. "Allah Akbar, how long was the dark night, its darkness will no longer besiege us. "Oh the raiders for Allah, hurry on your way to crush this unbelief, oh the raiders for Allah. "Allah Akbar, oh the people of Islamic lands, your brethren have left to encounter the enemy with firm resolve and conviction of victory, Allah willing. "You should offer supplications. Continue with [supplications] and do not stop. Do not stop asking Allah's forgiveness and recite his name, so that victory should come from him. "Oh lions of Islam, may our appointed time be tonight and every night in the prayer niches of the Exalted One so that we align our feet before Allah, he who has all power, kingship, and greatness. "We beseech him and humble ourselves before him and implore him to direct the coming blows [right to the targets] and to protect our brethren who went out to meet the enemy inside his own home [country]. "You, our brethren, be firm and keep the path and hide in waiting and prostration [as in prayer] for it is only a matter of a few days, a little more than 10 or less until we hear the cry announcing to us the good tidings of Allah's victory [coming] by the hands of our brethren, the jihad fighters. This is a serious matter and not a joke. "The operations have already been set and the lions have taken their positions and everything is complete. They are only waiting for permission from the heroic commander. "Whatever the enemy may do, he will never be able, Allah willing, to thwart anything. The brigades for the main missions are ready. They are supported by their brethren, members of the supporting brigades and the reserve brigades. The alternative plans are ready. "Hence, whatever the enemy of Allah may do, he shall not be able to harm us, Allah willing. "The train of death is on its way. Its riders are steadfast. Nothing will stop them or turn them back, Allah willing, from the goal: Neither the bushes of the enemy nor his weeds, neither his reptiles [nor] his lizards will stop its progress. "There is no force or advancement, except from Allah, the All-Powerful ... . "It is only a matter of a few days so be patient. We will come out and announce to you the news of the great victory. "And so I repeat: supplications, supplications, supplications, supplications to Allah ... . "We implore Allah, to protect them [the jihad fighters] ... and to take away from them [the enemies'] hearing and sight. "Oh Allah, this is America ... destroy it and shake it and all who walk in its line and entrenches with it ... . There is no god but you, the exalted ... ." Modificato da - gz on 2/27/2003 21:8:31

Anche oggi ha deciso il rumor sull'Iraq - gz  

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 26 Febbraio 2003 01:33

Anche oggi ha deciso il rumor sull'Iraq Putin che ha mandato Primakov a Bagdad ieri a parlare con Saddam (grande sua amico dei tempi del KGB) con un piano per farlo gradualmente abbandonare il potere salvandogli un ruolo e i soldi. Domani Schroeder corre a mosca ecc.. Questo rumor ha consentito di schiacciare un poco i ribassisti. Anche oggi il mercato ha seguito www.debka.com che ne è stata la fonte, micidiale questo sito, anche venerdì lo stesso

Quanto costa il petrolio ? - gz  

  By: GZ on Giovedì 06 Febbraio 2003 02:08

Quanto dei problemi delle economie globali dal 2000 a oggi è dovuto al petrolio ? Non molti ci hanno fatto caso, ma il 2000 è stato l'anno in cui i paesi petroliferi hanno incassato quasi 900 MILIARDI DI DOLLARI PER IL PETROLIO contro una media degli ultimi 15 anni di 480 miliardi grazie a un rialzo record del greggio. Il che significa che le economie industrializzate hanno pagato circa 420 miliardi di dollari di più della media. E quest'anno stanno pagando di nuovo 720 miliardi di dollari, circa 300 miliardi più della media. 300 o 400 miliardi di dollari IN UN ANNO non sono pochi, il PIL dell'Italia è di 1.100 miliardi tanto per dire, o se volete il famoso pacchetto di stimolo fiscale americano quest'anno è di 60-70 miliardi circa e non supera i 120 miliardi annui. Le famose manovre fiscali in italia di amato erano da 15 miliardi di dollari Una parte dei 700 o 800 miliardi di ricavi del petrolio viene reinvestito in qualche modo, ma l'effetto immediato è rallentare le economie europee in particolare e asiatiche Basta pensare che in europa per ogni miliardo in più di costo del petrolio ci sono automaticamente 2 o 3 miliardi di tasse sopra . E l'Asia essendo un economia tutta manifatturiera e in media più povera subisce l'incidenza del petrolio in % maggiore (delle tre aree l'america è quella il cui il costo del petrolio in % del reddito incide meno, grazie alle proprie riserve petrolifere, al carbone, al gas e al nucleare) Risolvere il Venezuela in qualche modo e rovesciare Saddam significa ridurre di 300 miliardi di dollari la tassa che gli europei, gli asiatici e anche gli americani pagano (senza contare che se l'Iraq si mette a pompare 5-6 milioni di barili il costo totale può scendere anche di più, come nel 1996-1999 come si vede sotto, quando era sceso a 300 miliardi contro i 700 attuali) Modificato da - gz on 2/6/2003 1:14:34

L'impressione oggi - gz  

  By: GZ on Giovedì 23 Gennaio 2003 19:15

Ci sono reportage ieri e oggi del famoso raduno a davos di 3mila capi politici, businessman e managers, da Bill Gates a Lula a Putin a Soros e tutti riportano che la gente non parla d'altro che dell'iraq (senza contare l'atmosfera in cui si svolge, hanno isolato davos dal resto del mondo, speso 10 milioni per blindare tutto, interdetto qualunque volo nell'area e impedito a chiunque di avvicinarsi). Ora Jack Straw e Colin Powell per inghilterra e Usa spiegano alla conferenza stampa che il tempo sta per scadere, che non sono gli ispettori a dover cercare la prova che non ci siano armi di distruzione di massa in iraq, ma al contrario è saddam che deve mostrare di averle distrutte ecc... Mentre parlano l'euro, il franco svizzero, l'australiano e le valute minori volano e gli indici euro affondano (ma il greggio scivola...) Chi ascolti la conferenza stampa di Straw e Powell ha l'impressione che non torneranno indietro. Forse non hanno il consenso della giordania e della turchia come sembrava oppure forse sì, a sentire il tono con cui parlano si direbbe di sì. Se fosse così allora il 15-20 febbraio sembra la data probabile. Il mercato reagirà non tanto al primo sparo quanto al momento in cui la decisione del primo sparo sarà finale. L'impressione oggi è di essere vicini

Rimandato di un mese - gz  

  By: GZ on Venerdì 17 Gennaio 2003 22:41

Se uno pensa che negli ultimi dodici mesi le borse siano in crisi solo perchè l'economia mondiale è in crisi non è questo il suo topic. Da marzo scorso (2001) l'amministrazione americana ha cominciato a parlare di intervento in iraq, citando le armi chimiche e batteriologiche o nucleari di Saddam ecc.. e da allora un -10 o -15% delle borse è probabilmente da attribuire a questa tensione crescente verso la guerra. Dal punto di vista dei mercati qualunque soluzione è meglio della tensione senza fine, ma per quanto riguarda quelli americani in particolari sembra ormai che tendano a reagire bene quando l'intervento sembra deciso e male quando torna l'incertezza Come noto la Corea è "entrata in campo" in dicembre creando un diversivo (si pensa che Saddam abbia pagato una grossa somma ai coreani per concordare la mossa) e segnando dei punti per Saddam. Ora Debka indica che prima la Turchia (come ho riportato 8 giorni fa) e ora anche la Giordania si stiano defilando e rompendo gli accordi presi, per una serie di motivi: gelosia verso il ruolo crescente dei kurdi, maggiori compensazioni economiche da strappare sentendosi indispensabili per gli americani ecc... Senza la Turchia è molto difficile l'intervento e senza la Giordania impossibile. Allo stesso tempo dopo fine marzo è tecnicamente impossibile comunque per il caldo dato che le truppe devono usare protezioni per armi chimiche che a 45 gradi nel deserto le semiparalizzano. Tornare indietro dopo aver spostato 150 mila truppe e manovrato e negoziato e minacciato per 10 mesi senza aver ottenuto niente sarebbe una grossa sconfitta. E può essere presa molto male dai mercati finanziari americani E' una una faccenda complicata, le parti in causa sono tante: i kurdi che hanno in mano il nord dell'iraq, i leader sciiti di opposizione in iraq appoggiati dall'iran (sciita anche lui), la Turchia che vuole dei pozzi di petrolio in iraq, aiuti economici sostanziali americani e teme i kurdi, la Giordania e poi praticamente tutti, OLP, Israele, Kuwait, Siria, Russia. L'america ha bisogno come minimo dell'appoggio della Turchia, Giordania e Kuwait-Quatar, della neutralità/simpatia dell'Iran e della neutralità della Russia. La cosa è andata avanti da marzo 2001 a oggi, gennaio 2002, ed è rimasto ora un mese e mezzo ormai prima di rinunciare. Secondo Debka c'è stato un altro rinvio, l'ultimo al 15 febbraio per la decisione finale. Tirando le somme da dicembre l'alleanza messa faticosamente assieme in 10 mesi di trattative segrete si sta sfaldando. Ora ci saranno sforzi frenetici di rimettere in piedi la coalizione per poter attaccare Saddam entro fine febbraio. Secondo Debka Bush ha accettato di spostare al 15 febbraio la decisione, ma è alle strette ----------------------------------------------------- Although difficulties continue to pile up, President George W. Bush has lost patience with the delays in launching America’s full-scale war against Iraq. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources report he is determined to go forward, come what may – and soon - even if some allies drop out and war plans have to be revised. Saturday, January 11, our sources report that the US President and Saudi crown prince Abdullah had a secret telephone conversation on Iraq and the situation in the Arab world in the light of the approaching war. At the end of the conversation, Abdullah made a personal request for a short period of grace for intense lobbying that might somehow obviate the need for war. Bush said he was not optimistic but granted the Saudi crown prince the extra time, giving his word not to launch military action before February 15, the day after the Little Pilgrimage (Umrah) to Mecca. This is the reason for the postponement of the Blair visit to the White House to January 31. That is the last extension Bush is prepared to allow – even though America’s two key allies threaten to drop out -Turkey is stalling and, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly discovered this week, Jordan has quietly developed cold feet. Ankara allowed a 150-man Pentagon team to inspect bases this week, but is still withholding permission for the US invasion force to use Turkey as a staging base to invade Iraq from the north. Jordan’s king Abdullah has not yet approved the large-scale landing of Marines to open the Western front of the war. This means that the Northern and Western warfronts are in disarray. If the Americans are only able to invade from the south, the nature of the war will differ from its planning, and become a slower, staged and rolling operation. The overriding concern of the Turks and Jordanian king, in addition to the wish for a better bargain, is the nuclear threat from al Qaeda which has assumed the role of Saddam’s proxy against the US and its allies. Nuclear references abound in Islamic fundamentalist publications and chatter of the last few days. No one knows what types of nuclear weapon are involved, but the allies want to hear from Washington what will happen to them in case of nuclear attack – be it dirty bomb or something more sophisticated. Nonetheless, the White House intends adhering to its current timeline for opening the assault on Iraq. This timeline currently ranges from January 20 to February 15. On January 27, chief UN arms inspector Hans Blix makes his report to the Security Council On January 28, Bush addresses the nation. Israeli election takes place. If the assault has not been launched by then, the President will use his speech to declare his intentions. Alternatively, Tommy Franks will be told the attack must go forward by mid-February – no later. Our sources stress that there is no guarantee that this time-span will not change again under the impact of far-reaching events. Say, if Saddam makes a direct move or the terrorists carry out a mega-hit. 2. Saddam’s Timeline There is a widespread assumption in Washington that Iraq paid the North Korean ruler Kim Jong-Il good money to raise a furor over his nuclear arms program so as to divide the Bush administration’s single-minded concentration on the war against Baghdad and buy time for Saddam Hussein. However, that assumption may only cover a part of the ploy. According to some of DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources, Kim received much larger cash pledges from his Middle East clients – and not only Iraq – for the future sale of complete nuclear bombs. The situation was best summed up in an article by Dennis Ross in the Washington Post of last Friday, January 10: "Does that argue for the administration's approach of isolation and containment of North Korea? It might, if the North Koreans were two or three years away from being able to produce a half-dozen nuclear devices. But it's more likely that they are only six months away, and that is not sufficient time for the effects of isolation and containment to work on Kim Jong Il. The price to North Korea in six months will not be appreciably different from what it is today. In six months, North Korea will be in a position to sell a nuclear device, and its record to date demonstrates unmistakably that it will sell anything to anybody at any time." To this comment, DEBKA-Net-Weekly adds from its intelligence sources: Kim already has six nuclear devices, but to keep his brinkmanship tactics afloat he needs them at home in his keeping. In another six months, he can build six more devices for sale. So if Kim gets six months' grace - and Saddam is also allowed to buy six months - the entire Arab Middle East will be given the time to acquire advanced nuclear weapons. (See also first HOT POINT at the bottom of this issue.) Top Allies Drop out Jordan Stalls, Follows Turkey Two of America’s three designated warfronts against Iraq are buckling. However, they may not be a total loss. The new February 15 timeline leaves all the parties space to indulge in gainful maneuvers and still climb back on the US war wagon at the end of the day. Turkey was the first defector. This week, Jordan followed. Ankara raised the stakes Thursday, January 16, by calling a regional summit to discuss ways of preventing the American war against Iraq, inviting Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia to attend. The Jordanian setback caught United States war planners still shuffling the board round under the shock of Turkey’s refusal to let US forces use its bases and territory for the leap into Iraq from the north (as DEBKA-Net-Weekly 92 first revealed on 10 January 2003). They discovered that the second staunch American partner, Jordan’s King Abdullah, had developed cold feet. The monarch suddenly called off the deployment of Marines in Jordanian bases, just as American military planners were frantically mapping out new plans for re-routing entire armored divisions, squadrons of warplanes and fleets of ships, which had been on the point of shipping out to Turkey from their home bases. Two of the three designated US invasion fronts against Iraq were on the point of folding. The two defections – if sustained – leave US war commander General Tommy Franks with one last invasion front: the south. US ground assault can only come now from Kuwait and Qatar bases plus a Marine landing from vessels of the US naval armada piling up in the Persian Gulf. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources and experts expect the United States to partly offset the loss of Turkish bases by a general mobilization of Kurdish militias in northern Iraq – some 50,000 paramilitary fighters. They are no substitute for the estimated 70,000 Turkish troops supposed to have fought alongside US soldiers, but they are up to the task of commandeering northern Iraqi oilfields - with the help of US special forces present in Kurdish command centers and air cover from US aircraft carriers deployed in the eastern and central Mediterranean. The Kurdish militias cannot be counted on to capture the key northern Iraqi oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. For this mission, the US war command will have to reassign at least one elite 101st Airborne Division contingent especially trained for months for parachuting missions into the Baghdad metropolitan area. The US command will have to make do with only two-thirds of the force originally dedicated to the battle for Baghdad and Saddam Hussein’s second seat of government, Tikrit. If US military planners can successfully redraw their battle plan and allocation of forces in Iraq, some of the harm can be offset.. Nonetheless, unless the king recants, the damage caused by Jordan’s withdrawal and the loss of the Western front, as weighed up by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources, is considerable: A. The strategic Iraqi air bases - especially the H2 and H3 complexes, which defend the central Iraqi region around Baghdad and Tikrit – will be left in Iraqi hands. The US originally planned to drop American airborne forces on those bases or nearby and wrest control of their facilities with the help of Jordanian special and rapid deployment troops. This plan will have to abandoned, leaving Iraqi troops assigned to defending this sector against the raiding force free to head south and, from the west, harass American tank columns as they advance, or else race to the aid of the Iraqi defenders of Baghdad. B. Nothing much will stand in the way of Saddam Hussein launching his 60 to 80 al-Hussein surface-to-surface missiles, most of which are hidden in western Iraq, against the advancing American columns or against Israel. The Al Hussein, an improved version of the Scud missile (32 of which wrought heavy damage in the Tel Aviv area in 1991), has a range of about 800 km (500 miles). DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts warn that, should Jordan persist in staying out of the conflict - and western Iraq is consequently left in Saddam’s hands - this could tilt the military balance in Iraq’s favor and trigger the kinds of radical military developments that US President George W. Bush has been at pains to avert for nearly two years. Modificato da - gz on 1/18/2003 0:28:6

"riprendono al primo colpo di cannone". - gz  

  By: GZ on Venerdì 20 Dicembre 2002 13:23

Se la guerra fosse economicamente conveniente al suo avvicinarsi le borse e il dollaro non andrebbero giù. Il potenziale "rally di fine anno" è stato affossato dall'avvicinarsi della scadenza di guerra, persino l'euro da tre giorni perde qualcosa, solo l'^oro#^ il ^franco svizzero#^ (e, un poco di meno, anche le obbligazioni) salgono tra gli strumenti finanziari (il cambio euro/franco svizzero è in picchiata da lunedì, vedi sotto, da 1.48 a 1.46) D'altra parte come diceva anche Francesco Micheli in un intervista la settimana scorsa è molto forte il pregiudizio che "le borse riprendono al primo colpo di cannone". Quindi il gioco è che i mercati perdono quando vedono il colpo di cannone che si avvicina e possono rimbalzare quando finalmente "arriva la notizia" Debka Weekly di stamattina dice che sembra possa essere ora da metà gennaio in poi, in particolare tra il 18 e 21 ci sono tre notti senza luna che sono molto adatte. Il Washington Post ieri diceva citando fonti interne alla casa bianca "ultima settimana di gennaio". Allo stesso tempo l'uso di armi chimiche e batteriologiche è più probabile che nel 1991 perchè a differenza di allora Saddam sa di essere l'obiettivo e non ha niente da perdere (nel 1991 il fatto di usarle avrebbe dato un pretesto per rimuoverlo dal potere). Come armi convenzionali Saddam è più debole che nel 1991, ma usando altre armi è un incognita -------------------------------- Debka Weekly -------------------------------------- The new presidential adviser on Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, proposes that shortly after Baghdad is conquered by American-led forces, President George W. Bush will fly out and deliver a speech celebrating the New Iraq and calling on the Iranian people to rise up against the clerical regime in Tehran. Khalilzad was until recently the Bush administration’s main policy architect on Afghanistan. Suggestions for the day after the victory are pouring in to the White House from other parts of the administration. One is to shut the defeated Saddam Hussein up in an isolated building and place him under a siege, relegating him to a fate similar to that of Yasser Arafat, who is encircled by Israeli forces in his Ramallah headquarters, but has not been physically harmed. In effect, this would condemn Saddam and family to lifelong imprisonment as an American captive. He would become an object lesson for all brutal dictators, illustrating the destiny awaiting those who acquired weapons of mass destruction and refused to disarm or join America’s global war on terror. These reports, which come from DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Middle East and military sources, exemplify the current buoyant mood in the White House and in circles close to senior administration officials. There is a sense that the battle for Baghdad will be brief and America’s victory swiftly attained. This optimism contrasts strongly with the cautious public statements emanating from the Bush administration, which stress that the President has not yet decided on military action against Iraq. The last timeline for the launching of the Iraq war was cited officially in Washington on Thursday, December 18, as some time between the end of January and mid-February. According to our sources, this date is not binding. The attack could come earlier, from mid-January on, depending on weather conditions in the Middle East and the number of moonless nights, the longest of which occur between January 15 and 18. While no one questions the victorious outcome of the US campaign, at least three leading American war planners are known to appreciate that the first ten days to two weeks hold great peril for the United States and its allies. Defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Myers – who was in Moscow this week to tie up the ends of US-Russian military and intelligence collaboration in the Iraq War – and Central Command chief, General Tommy Franks, are all conscious of the dangers hanging over America at the battlefront and at home in this crucial period - as well as its supporters in the Middle East and Europe. It is now obvious that Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction systems have survived intensive American, British, Turkish, Jordanian and Israel attempts to seize and destroy them and that he is still able to deploy them against several targets simultaneously. It is also clear that the American-British-Israel threat to counter an Iraqi unconventional weapons attack with a nuclear blast has no deterrent power. A few days ago, Saddam confided to visitors from the Gulf Emirates that he has taken into account that Iraq’s main cities will be razed and their populations decimated by US-led retaliatory raids. This conversation prompted the predictions published in the last few days that Saddam is contemplating resorting to a course of scorched earth if he falls, including setting fire to his own oil fields. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources, that was only a fragment of the leaked conversation. The Iraqi ruler went on to speak about igniting all the oil fields of the Persian Gulf, especially those of Kuwait and Oman. Those sources also reveal that high-ranking Saudi and Iraqi intelligence and military officers met on their common frontier this week. The Saudis asked for immunity from attack for their oil wells and installations, but were given no promises. A potential spanner in America’s Iraq war plans is a possible Middle East war. Despite US diplomatic efforts to keep the lid on regional tensions until the Iraqi conflict is resolved, our military experts see the heightened threat of a conflict erupting, drawing in Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. (See separate article in this issue). If this happens, the United States may find itself entering Baghdad as a victor, yet surrounded by the flames of war in other parts of the region. American war planners are beginning to consider they might have to detach forces from Iraq and the Gulf at high speed to attend to conflagrations flaring in the Middle East as a result of war, the assassination of rulers, internal insurrections or military coups in countries that support the United States. Those currently most vulnerable are Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and Yemen. Another hazard looming over American plans is a terrorist outbreak. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror experts predict a severe escalation in terrorist activity will accompany the onset of the US offensive against Iraq. Ominous warnings in the name of al Qaeda appeared during the holy month of Ramadan in November, threatening mass casualty attacks around the “feast of gift-sharing”. These references were at first linked to Ramadan, when Muslim martyrs are rewarded with lavish gifts in Paradise. However when November came and went and the only terrorist strike occurred in Mombasa – and even then it ended disappointingly for the terrorists when they failed to shoot down an Israeli airliner – the experts’ attention switched to Christmas and the Christian New Year as the target period. Since those dates come close to the approaching American assault on Iraq, a high terror alert for mass-casualty strikes has been declared in America’s main cities – particularly New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Detroit. In Washington, such key government centers as the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, are labeled high risk, while Vice President Richard Cheney and his staff have been consigned to a hidden location. Mainline transport facilities, air, sea and rail are deemed potential targets. Similar hazards are seen in London and big British cities; a high state of terror alert was declared in France, Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. There is a dearth of intelligence on the scale of potential attacks. However the general evaluation is that they will be carried out by al Qaeda network cells, some of them sleepers, which are already on location at their targets, under orders to get set for pre-determined action. Most intelligence and terror experts no longer doubt that Iraqi military intelligence has joined forces with Osama bin Laden’s organization in the planning and execution of these attacks. Therefore, the first terrorist strike may also be the opening shot of the US-led war on Iraq. As in Afghanistan and Israel, the civilian population will find itself part of a warfront. Late Thursday night, December 19, just as we were closing this issue, al Qaeda published a new report, which says:”…fighters brotherhood will spread some diseases viruses and Ibola… in north Kuwait to… the soldiers of America and Britain” preparing to launch war against Iraq. Modificato da - gz on 12/20/2002 17:3:9

 

  By: prozac on Giovedì 12 Dicembre 2002 12:31

Se gli Usa pagheranno da soli i costi della guerra allora pretenderanno anche di esserne gli esclusivi beneficiari nella gestione delle riserve di petrolio e nella ricostruzione, quindi costi e benefici dovrebbeo compensarsi . E' possibile che questa volta il $ non sarà più moneta rifugio, ma allora vorrebbe dire che l'atteggiamento degli investitori verso il $ è proprio cambiato e quindi ci sarebbe da aspettarsi il prossimo declino della moneta Usa . Con tutto quel che ne conseguirebbe per l'economia e la borsa Usa . Stiamo a vedere . Modificato da - Prozac on 12/12/2002 11:32:41

 

  By: GZ on Giovedì 12 Dicembre 2002 12:30

sono mesi che il dollaro scende e l'oro e l'euro salgono ogni volta che aumenta la tensione e la probabilità di guerra in iraq le ragioni sono varie, ma non c'è molto da discutere quando una cosa accade 5 volte su 6

 

  By: Liuk on Giovedì 12 Dicembre 2002 12:10

<Di solito quando soffiano venti di guerra il $ si rafforza, visto che è considerata moneta rifugio . > Stavolta la guerra se la pagano da soli. Stiamo a vedere, ma è possibile che il rifugio venga cercato altrove, almeno per un po'.