Short le società piccole americane - gz
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By: GZ on Giovedì 12 Aprile 2007 15:19
Bloomberg riporta oggi che la posizione al ribasso sulle società piccole americane, quelle che sono nell'indice Russell 2000 ad esempio, è salita a 5 volte quella sulle società grandi che formano l'S&P 500 ed è la maggiore dal 2003
Le 2000 società che sono nell'indice Russell 2000 costano oggi 40 volte gli utili, cioè quanto costava l'S&P nel marzo-aprile 2000 al picco della bolla dopo di che perse un -50% e di contro le società grandi costano invece solo 17 volte gli utili. Dal minimo del 2003 il Russell è salito infatti del +145% contro un +86% dell'S&P 500
Dato però che ora l'economia USA sta rallentando sensibilmente, che le società piccole esportano meno delle grandi, sono meno diversificate e quindi hanno oscillazioni maggiori nel business, hanno meno accesso al credito e più debito, sembra assurdo che vengano valutate 40 volte gli utili e molti gestori astuti ^vanno short il Russell 2000#http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aVLV6bFaOyi8&refer=stocks^.
Ovvio che puoi interpretare questa mega posizione al ribasso al contrario ecc... ma è messa in piedi da gente come Peter Thiel (quello che è diventato miliardario fondando Paypal e poi ha creato un hedge fund che dal 2002 è su del +240%).
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Short Sellers Target Small-Company Shares as U.S. Growth Slows
By Michael Patterson
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Short sellers are increasingly betting against shares of America's smallest companies, and some of the biggest U.S. investors are equally pessimistic.
Short positions in companies in the Russell 2000 Index, which have a median market value of $669 million, jumped last month to the highest since at least September 2003, according to Citigroup Inc. Short sellers, who bet on stock declines, are targeting so-called small-cap companies after they outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 Index for the eighth straight year.
Bank of America Capital Management, JPMorgan Private Bank and LPL Financial Services, which manage about $1 trillion, are bearish on smaller companies too. They say large-company stocks are cheap relative to earnings and will outperform small caps this year as the U.S. economy slows. Decelerating growth at home favors bigger companies, which get more of their revenue from abroad, the investors say.
``The greater the growth scare here in the United States, the more pressure on small caps,'' said Joseph Quinlan, who helps oversee $540 billion as Bank of America's chief market strategist in New York. ``You want to be in large-cap stocks.''
The percentage of shares sold short in the Russell 2000, a small-cap benchmark, was more than five times greater than in the S&P 500, consisting of companies with a median value of $13.6 billion, according to Citigroup. Short sellers borrow shares from stockholders and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at a lower price later to return to the holder.
Shorts' Targets
Their biggest targets among small caps as of mid-March included Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a mortgage lender, and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc., a video-game maker, according to monthly data from stock exchanges.
The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 every year since 1998. Since the current bull market began in October 2002, the small-company index has climbed 147 percent, almost double the S&P 500's 85 percent gain. This year, the Russell 2000 has gained 2.6 percent, while the S&P 500 has advanced 1.5 percent.
Companies in the Russell 2000 sell on average for about 40.1 times earnings for the past year. S&P 500 members are valued at about 17.2 times. The gap between those two price- earnings ratios is the widest since May.
``It's not a surprise to me that some smart guys on the other side may be selling or shorting some of these stocks with the anticipation that they'll come back to a more reasonable price level,'' said Mark Keeley, who helps manage the $4.2 billion Keeley Small Cap Value Fund, which has beaten 98 percent of its peers in the past five years. ``That's not a bad bet.''
Thiel's Bet
About 9.6 percent of the shares available for trading in the Russell 2000 were sold short in March, according to data compiled by Nicholas Gulden, head of U.S. portfolio trading strategies at Citigroup. That compares with a 1.9 percent short interest in members of the S&P 500.
Peter Thiel, chief executive officer of Clarium Capital Management in San Francisco, is among the hedge fund managers who are betting the S&P 500 will outpace the Russell 2000.
``The way to trade equities at this point in the U.S. is short the Russell and go long the S&P,'' said Thiel, who manages about $2.1 billion. ``