il ciclo dei semiconduttori non è già finito - gz
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By: GZ on Martedì 23 Marzo 2004 13:26
Il solito Tom Kurlak ieri è intervenuto (facendo autocritica per essersi sbagliato a gennaio) come fa nei momenti di crisi e dice che i prezzi sul mercato spot stanno salendo per i componenti e la capacità è utilizzata ai massimi per cui il ciclo non decelera ora come molti pensano.
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"...However, after checking in with my old industry contacts, I remain very enthusiastic about this industry's upcycle. Book-to-bill ratios are still strong, over 1.0. Pricing is firmer and order lead times are lengthening. Industry excess capacity has been absorbed, and managements are preparing for a sequentially stronger second quarter and second half.
In 2003, when semiconductor industry sales grew 18%, consumer electronics drove most of the growth, as corporate IT spending never really got going. So it's no wonder that this year's first quarter has seen seasonality in computer sales and some inventory backup. Corporate demand for computers still isn't recovering much, but it will eventually, and that will help drive chip sales higher.
Meanwhile, I'm keeping my positions in leading chip stocks....
I'm getting more confirmation that now is the time in the cycle for commodity components to do better. Prices are firmer for DRAMs and capacitors. Also, worldwide chip capacity is getting tighter, and longer lead times are increasing the urgency for more production and test equipment. ......
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E anche l'altro che leggo su TSC, Titus Menzies ha un lungo pezzo in cui sintetizza la crescita totale in dollari (non in unità) del settore nel 2004 prevista in +31%
ma nota che varia molto nei diversi settori, il migliore sono le infrastrutture e attrezzature per la produzione di chip e la memoria flash non i chips di per sè. Nei "Semiconductor Equipment" sarebbe una +55% di crescita perchè l'utilizzo della capacità media del settore è al 95% e di norma quando arriva all'85% già cominciano a investire ed allargare la capacità.
Per cui sono non tanto quelli che fanno chips come Stm che beneficiano quanto quelli che fanno infrastrutture e attrezzature per la produzione
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Titus Menzies,( founder of Semiconductor Intelligence, an independent research boutique in London, focusing on the global IT hardware sector)
Semiconductor Equipment
3/18/04 4:09 PM EST Frenzied buying spree.
FY03 total sales came in at $31.1 billion, an increase of 55% year over year, with $16.7 billion spent on fab equip, $7.6 billion on test, $2.3 billion on assembly and $4.5 billion on spares and services. According to our and market estimates, FY04 should grow to $43.5 billion, up an aggressive 40% year over year, with $24.1 billion being spent on fab equip, $10.7 billion on test, $3.2 billion on assembly and $5.5 billion on spares and services. This strong growth is aided by lengthening lead times for equipment and stability or hikes for chip price. Bookings for semiconductor equipment have already risen steadily since their bottom in 2Q03. Cumulative bookings during 2003 amounted to $22.3 billion, an 11% growth from 2002.
Currently, the IC cycle is in a boom period. Overcapacity has been eliminated, causing a considerable ramp for equipment makers. As a result, our estimates guide for a sustained strong growth for 2004 of up to 40% over 2003. Chipmakers will make every effort to ensure early equipment delivery so that they are able to capitalize on supplying the corporate and consumer appetite in 2004 and 2005.
In the last several weeks, a number of foundries and IDMs have released their expected capital expenditure budgets for 2004 -- I had highlighted a few of them earlier in the Spotlight. The majority of these announcements showed more than 30% year over year growth in 2004, supporting the notion that the industry will add needed capacity quite rapidly. The over-capacity from 2000 has now been eliminated and demand for 300mm technology has become prevalent. As a result, there will be a strong upsurge in equipment needed to realign with industry demand. Because expansion came in later than usual, coupled with the longer lead-times, there will be a frenzied buying spree. How long this will last is unclear. However, I do expect the equipment makers to continue enjoying sales growth until mid-2005. By then, equipment makers will start to witness postponements or cancellation of orders coming in as chipmakers realize that they have ordered for capacity that exceeds demand. This will eventually result in an over-heated situation.
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3/18/04 7:41 AM EST I expect growth above 30% this year.
Year over year growth rate forecasts for the semiconductor chip sector for 2004 range between 20% (SIA) and 30% (Gartner, which is cited as being conservative due to cautious consumer and business spends). Based on our own estimates, I expect the semiconductor sector to grow in 2004 by 31% year over year to $218 billion. In the past, I have noted that historically chipmakers tend to start increasing production capacity when fab utilization rates reach 85%. However, in this upturn, average fab utilization rates have had to near 95% before chipmakers started to increase capacity seriously.
In 2003, the recovery was mostly consumer driven with hardly any corporate spending. In 2004, the corporate spending is resuming, even within the telecommunications infrastructure. Digital consumer, telecommunications and corporate IT spending are all in alignment along with the general economies of world growth. World economic growth, at best estimate, comes in at 4.5%, on the back of an inevitable very strong pick-up in 2004. However, the strengthening euro coupled with generally slower economies in Europe will mean that Europe will underperform other regions. Last week's tragic events in Spain will, however, dampen any near-term recovery in consumer spending confidence as consumers question the levels of economic and security stability.
