Già 4 anni fa Cobraf prevedeva il toro delle materie prime - polipolio
By: GZ on Sabato 19 Gennaio 2002 23:37
Ragionando in termini non di un mese, ma di un anno almeno, occorre leggere anche questa intervista di Marc Faber (la terza volta che lo cito questa settimana) che sostiene quello che sottolineavo lunedì
( vedi: Non Perdere le Materie Prime di G.Z. 1/13/2002 23:21 Free )
cioè che dopo 4 anni di purgatorio, seguiti alla crisi del 1997, la Cina e l'Estremo Oriente ritornano a produrre (le stime di crescita cinese per 2001 sono sul 8-9% del PIL). La prima conseguenza sicura è che consumeranno materie prime, sempre più materie prime, per produrre e riempire il mondo dei loro prodotti a basso costo. Lo stavano già facendo e il crac del 1997 li ha fermati di colpo. Ma era solo una battuta di arresto, nessuno ferma 1.2 miliardi di cinesi sulla strada del benessere.
le materie prime (eccetto il petrolio e suoi derivati) sono oggi sui minimi degli ultimi venti anni, depresse nel 2001 anche dalla recessione americana che dura già da un anno
Per cui può essere che 1) + 2) sia uguale a 3) (= rialzo delle materie prime)
-------------------------------------------------- In the long run, very few emerging economies will be able to compete with China. I wouldn't rule out, in 5-10 years' time, the possibility that China becomes the workshop of the world, the way Lancashire [England] did in 1830s. But China will also become the customer of other emerging economies. China has a population of 1.2 billion people. Today less than 1% of the population is outbound, but 5%-10% could be traveling over the next 10-15 years. That would mean a meaningful influx of tourists into the surrounding countries of Asia, and Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Western Europe. Food and plantation companies will benefit from Chinese demand. Companies that cater to domestic consumer demand -- cigarette companies, pharmaceutical companies, software companies -- will also be helped.
Faber: Let me first talk about commodities. Financial assets have been in a secular bull market in the U.S. and Western Europe from 1982 until recently. But we have had a terrific bear market in commodity prices since 1980. In the history of capitalism, commodity prices have never been as depressed as they are today when measured against the consumer price index and the Dow Jones Industrials or the S&P 500. But demand for oil in Asia could double over the next 10 years. The trend for all commodities in Asia is toward higher per- capita consumption. Investors should also allocate some of their assets to precious metals such as gold and silver.
Q: Why should gold and silver rise?
Faber: In due course people will question the value of money. I don't think the dollar will tumble against the euro, though it may decline 10%-20%. But the dollar will drop against a basket of commodities as more and more people endorse the view that the gold standard has a lot of merit. It has built-in stabilizers that might actually solve or prevent financial excesses from happening in the future.
Schafer: Given your view of China, what are the implications for worldwide inflation and interest rates?
Faber: Commodity prices will go up more than most people think. On the manufacturing side China produces a deflationary shock because it can produce anything cheaper than we in the Western world. On the other hand, it will become a huge consumer of commodities. In the last 20 years we had inflation in financial assets and deflation in commodity prices. In the next 20 years we could have inflation in commodity prices, but we may not have bull markets in financial assets. Unlike in 1950 stocks today are not cheap.
Edited by - gzibordi on 1/19/2002 22:48:42