Obbligazioni Telecom: Attenzione! - Gzibordi
By: GZ on Venerdì 26 Ottobre 2001 12:58
per gli affezionati della saga telecom-olivetti-pirelli (un nome fra tutti, quarterback) e per chi avesse in portafoglio obbligazioni del gruppo
ecco qua l'ultimo interessante scenario che emerge e che proviene dal molto autorevole Rob Cox a Londra
come si vede se si ha pazienza di leggere sembra che ci sia un ipotesi di scorporare Telecom fonderne un pezzo in Olivetti ecc... ecc... e però facendone pagare un prezzo a chi abbia Bond Telecom perchè la Telecom che rimarebbe avrebbe un rating più basso
----------- Rob Cox -------------------------
He could de-merge Telecom Italia’s domestic fixed-line telephone business and fold it into Olivetti.
Here is how it would work: as part of a spinoff of the Italian retail telephone activities, Telecom Italia offers to convert savings shares at a rate of 0.75 new ordinary shares for each saver. Olivetti would then hold about 42% of the wireline company and the Telecom Italia rump, which would include stakes in Telecom Italia Mobile, DataCom, Seat Pagine Gialle and a grab bag of international assets that could be sold. Saddling the spinoff with Telecom Italia’s E22bn debt, however, leaves the rump enviably debt free.
This alone does not bring the cash generative bits of Telecom Italia to the Olivetti debt pile. Olivetti would achieve this by offering to buy the remainder of the domestic fixed-line business, which has E7bn of ebitda. The merged entity would have a debt-to-ebitda ratio of just under five times, less than Olivetti’s current ratio, easing its ability to meet interest payments.
On a multiple of five times ebitda, subtracting the E22bn of debt, the new company would have an equity value of about E13bn. On that basis, Olivetti could buy the remainder of the wireline company, leaving Olimpia with about 18% of the merged entity. While clearly not a majority, that would allow Pirelli to wield effective control, similar to the way Mediobanca directs insurer Generali with a smaller shareholding.
An Olivetti-Telecom Italia wireline deal does pose several difficulties. Chiefly, Telecom Italia bondholders would suffer as the fixed-line business is made to service an enlarged debt burden.
The bonds would likely lose their BBB+ rating, perhaps falling to BBB-, putting them on a par with the rating accorded to Valentia, the vehicle used to acquire Ireland’s Eircom. While bondholders have some protection from a clause that would increase the yield by 50 basis points, they might feel that was insufficient reward for the increased credit risk. Tronchetti might view this a small price to pay.