By: GZ on Giovedì 14 Ottobre 2004 01:57
Puo' essere che uno di questi giorni ti alzi
e scopri che la Cina ha rivalutato il renminbi
del 15% secco come sostiene oggi questo
(From THE FAR EASTERN ECONOMIC REVIEW)
By Marcus Noland
Most observers regard the Chinese economy as overheated and many are sceptical that recent administrative measures will be sufficient to produce the desired soft landing. Under such circumstances, a revaluation of the currency could be an advisable component of a domestic adjustment package, dampening inflation and
discouraging hot-money inflows.
Yet, the Chinese witnessed the Asian Crisis and have seen the havoc wreaked by premature liberalization of the capital account. The health of the Chinese banking system is questionable, and it is almost surely the case that depositors would reallocate away from Chinese institutions and renminbi-denominated instruments if they were permitted to do so. This would have the twin effects of
putting downward pressure on the renminbi while at the same time undermining the stability of the Chinese banking system.
Many within the Chinese government recognize that the renminbi is undervalued, and the maintenance of the dollar peg at its current level encourages speculative capital inflows that are having a deleterious impact on macroeconomic performance and the stability of the banking system. So while expressing agreement with the thrust of foreign demands during recent meetings in Washington, Chinese officials steadfastly refused to commit to any specific
liberalization timetable.
Under these circumstances, a one-time step-revaluation of the renminbi of perhaps 15%-25% under the existing institutional framework would achieve the desired revaluation of the currency while buying time for continued internal reform and gradual liberalization of the capital account. The worst policy would
be a small, say 2%, revaluation which would simply signal to speculators the existence of a one-way bet -- the revaluation has to be big enough to convince market participants that it is unlikely to be repeated in the foreseeable future.
China emerged as the hero of the Asian Crisis by not devaluing the renminbi in the midst of the turmoil. China can now reinforce that leadership by doing the opposite: revaluing the renminbi both for its own good and to ease the adjustments of its neighbours in Asia.