Sembra che le cose stiano accellerando - gz
By: GZ on Venerdì 07 Febbraio 2003 11:07
Debka appena arrivato oggi indica che la data di inizio potrebbe essere il 21 febbraio, molto prima di quello che tutti pensano.
I giornali americani e altre fonti indicano che non ci sono ancora tutte le truppe e i mezzi in posizione per un attacco tradizionale stile Kuwait 1991, con bombardamento di 6-7 giorni e avanzata di truppe corrazzate dal Kuwait e gli esperti concordavano che occorreva arrivare alla prima settimana di marzo per questo.
Ma dopo lo show di Powell è anche evidente che la macchina che è stata messa in moto non si ferma e in questa logica prima inizia meglio è per l'amministrazione Bush.
L'Iraq lo percepisce come si vede oggi dalle iniziative frenetiche di oggi (..offerta di scienziati che danno interviste private, visita di Aziz al papa, corea del nord, che è pagata da Saddam per queste uscite, che ogni giorno minaccia guerra nucleare...)
Inoltre il petrolio ha sfondato 33 dollari il barile e stamattina si avvicina a 35 e il dollaro ha recuperato che è quello che ti aspetti alla vigilia dell'intervento
Il piano secondo Debka sembra allora che sia di attaccare in anticipo. Sarebbe basato su:
i) la collaborazione completa dei turchi che invaderebbero il nord dell'iraq da soli e in cambio avrebbero un protettorato politico
ii) il puntare su un enorme operazione di lanci di paracadutisti in tutto l'iraq
iii) le defezioni di alti ufficiali irakeni concordate
iv) la collaborazione piena della Giordania in cambio del protettorato sul sud dell'iraq
(come noto debka passa informazioni dei servizi israeliani quindi va presa cum grano salis)
------------ Debka Weekly --------------------------------
The US jettisoned the principle of preserving Iraq’s integrity.
This guideline was fundamental to Washington’s military and diplomatic thinking on Iraq in all its permutations – until very recently. Now, sources in Washington report exclusively to DEBKA-Net-Weekly, the Bush administration has turned around to accept a share-out at this stage of military control over Iraq with Turkey, the UK and Jordan.
(Click here for illustrative map)
The Turks will advance into North Iraq ahead of the US invasion.
Their objective: to seize North Iraq’s oil fields and cities thus gaining military control of 25 percent of Iraq’s oil resources. The fate of the oil after the war has not been decided, but Turkey will certainly be awarded a sizeable stake.
US Special Forces and CIA units hunt Iraqi WMD systems in… Lebanon.
Their secret hiding places were the object of an intensive search at the very moment that Powell was depicting their stealthy evacuation from sites in Iraq. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources have discovered that Iraq’s military leaders, with the help of Syrian president Bashar Assad, arranged to ship out to Lebanon via Syria the bulk of Saddam’s biological and chemical weapons arsenal in special tanker trucks. Whether or not Saddam Hussein and his sons Qusay and Uday consented to this “export” undertaking or even knew about it is unknown.
Some top Iraqi officials are tentatively reported testing possible asylum in Syria.
Some intelligence sources claim to have heard that a few of Saddam’s officials have put out feelers in Damascus with a view to getting themselves and families out to safety from the coming threat to the regime.
Failing the spontaneous collapse of the Saddam regime, the US offensive will go forward on February 21.
The Bush administration hopes that the foregoing steps will build up enough pressure to blow the Saddam regime down. The date for the US assault is, as always, provisional, depending on developments on the ground and the success of terrorist groups in pulling off a mega-terror strike in the United States, Europe or the Middle East.
1. The Turks Go in First
At the beginning of this week, the Turkish General Staff quietly ordered a general call-up of Turkish forces, regular and reserves – army, air force and navy - according to information reaching DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources. The units are being hurriedly equipped and armed for immediate transportation to the Turkish-Iraqi frontier by every available vehicle – plane, ship, rail and truck. At the frontier, the units are deployed in attack formation and are standing by for orders to move forward into northern Iraq.
According to our sources in Washington, the Turkish high command is fully coordinated with the Bush administration at the highest level. This latest twist in the Washington-Ankara arrangements for the Iraq war is being kept under close wraps in Washington, restricted to a very tight circle. The final touches to the arrangements were applied by the US war commander, the head of the US Central Command Gen. Tommy Franks, together with the Turkish chief of staff, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok.
Their joint plan calls for three Turkish armored columns to drive into northern Iraq.
The first will go in through Haur north of Zakho, heading west to cross the Euphrates and turn south not far from the Iraqi-Syrian border toward the Iraqi town of Sinjar. This column will then head east, taking in the Tall Afar area and then making for the western suburbs of the oil city of Mosul.
The second column, starting out from Zam Alamon, will cover the distance to Bamarni where the Turkish army has already established a base, move south towards the Kurdish towns of Aqrah and Irbil and onto the second oil city of Kirkuk.
The third column will enter Iraq through the town of Amadiyeh and head east along a route parallel to the Iraqi-Iranian frontier to fetch up at Suleimaniyeh. From this town, the column will march west up to the eastern suburbs of Kirkuk.
After capturing Mosul and Kirkuk, the Turkish forces will carve out a military buffer zone to cut off the northward path of Iraqi refugees and military escapees attempting to flee central and southern Iraq. This operation, with a nod from Washington, will cut Iraqis in flight off from their only refuge: Syria.
American and Turkish war strategists hope the various Kurdish factions and tribes of northern Iraq accept Turkey’s seizure of the oil fields and cities. They are therefore trying to make sure that advancing Turkish forces stay clear of Kurdish cities as far as possible, and that those passing through, move on without interfering in Kurdish affairs.
In an effort to draw mutually acceptable red lines, representatives of northern Iraq’s ethnic groups have been closeted in Ankara since Wednesday February 5. The meeting is presided over by President George W. Bush’s adviser on Iraqi affairs, Zalmay Khalil-Zad, attended by a bevy of Pentagon officials and US military officers. Present are Sanan Ahmet Aga, Chairman of the Iraqi Turkomen Front; Jalal Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan – PUK, and Nechirvan Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP.
Al the participants are pretending to turn a blind eye on Turkey’s broad designs in northern Iraq and its oil. However, one group has betrayed a reluctance to join the game. The KDP leader Massoud Barzani has pointedly stayed away from the Ankara get-together, sending instead his nephew, Nechirvan.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts predict that the Turkish army’s crossing into northern Iraq and its seizure of Mosul and Kirkuk will bring to life the most deep-seated fears of every ruler in the Persian Gulf and Middle East, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, that President Bush will not think twice before reshuffling the region’s geographic boundaries, re-distributing its ethnic groups and re-apportioning control of the oil fields.
The Turkish push toward Mosul and Kirkuk will fire the starting gun for the war against Iraq, the first military step of which will have been taken by a Muslim country rather than by the United States.
2. US Military Plans Overhauled
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources advise taking the assertions from Washington, that the US buildup of might in the Persian Gulf is in its final stages, with a pinch of salt.
For the moment, the American deployment is simply not up to muster.
The aircraft carriers and airborne and infantry divisions that must bear the brunt of the campaign have yet to arrive on-station. Not enough US troops have assembled in Kuwait to execute an armored thrust north toward Baghdad, or for a major amphibious landing in the Basra area. To conquer western Iraq, a greater number of soldiers must collect at jumping-off bases in Jordan.
As for the preparations in Turkey, the buzz may be that some 350 fighter planes and bombers have flown into four Turkish air bases. But, according to our information, they have not landed and there is no sign they have even taken off for the region.
Furthermore, no more than three US aircraft carriers are within striking range of Iraq, and as our military sources reported in DEBKA-Net-Weekly No. 95 last week, the campaign demands six or seven.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts see three options available to American war planners:
To postpone the start of the offensive until March in order to give additional forces time to reach the arena. Current military and political circumstances make this course impracticable.
To scale down US participation in the campaign by, for example, refraining from sending an invasion force for northern Iraq through Turkey and leaving the northern front to the Turkish army.
To relocate to central Iraq the American units assigned to occupying the north, thereby focusing more American strength on the operation for the capture of Baghdad and Tikrit.
In view of revised US war planes, these contingents have received new orders. They must all be relocated in different staging areas. According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts, it would be virtually impossible to shift them all around into fresh combat positions in time to take part in a war slated to begin on February 21.
So the United States has had to revise its game plan and carry out some logistical short cuts. Instead of having to traverse hundreds of kilometers overland to reach central Iraq, the troops will be dropped by parachute or ferried by air to landing strips near their targets.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military experts reported last week on this shift of emphasis in the plans of the Pentagon and the US war command, whereby large-scale airborne operations would drop masses of troops. Under the revamped scenario, the United States will embark on what will probably be the biggest airborne assault in military history. At least two full divisions will have to parachute or land by air in the region, if Washington hopes to adhere to its operational timetable for late February.
3. Fragmented Fronts, Proliferating Foes
As demonstrated by the special DEBKA map displayed in this article, northern Iraq and its oil fields have been assigned to the Turkish army, while western Iraq with its oilfields will be the province of British and Jordanian special forces. US forces will be free to concentrate on the two remaining fronts – central and southeast Iraq.
One US contingent will capture the oil fields of southern Iraq with Basra, while a second will converge on Baghdad and Tikrit. The conquest of the Iraqi capital will have top priority.
The big question is: How will the ten-thirteen million Iraqi Shiites who inhabit the regions between southern Iraq and Baghdad react? As 60 percent of the population Iraq, the Shiites were the main incentive for Washington to negotiate secret political and military agreements and understandings with Tehran. Those accords, reported on these pages extensively in the last six months, are now reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources to have largely collapsed.
First to fall by the wayside was US-Iranian cooperation in northern Iraq, whose purpose was to keep Iranian fighters from joining the ranks of pro-Iranian Kurdish groups in the region.
Next to go were the understandings designed to prevent an Iraqi Shiite-Sunni bloodbath.
The revised American war plan leaves the two communities exposed to the perils of internecine conflict. With Turkey controlling the north and an Anglo-Jordanian force occupying the west, the Sunnis will be trapped with no path of escape. All they can do is surrender to the Americans or turn on the Shiites.
The US war command’s tactics can be fully comprehended only by taking a close look at one of the most dangerous weapons still remaining to Saddam Hussein – the violent Iranian opposition guerrilla group, Mujahideen al-Khalq, or MKO.
4. New Radical Shiite terror threat for America
As if sleeper cells planted by al Qaeda and Iraqi military intelligence weren’t giving the CIA, FBI and US Homeland Security enough nightmares, another terrorist group is preparing to become their worst dream by carrying out mega-terror attacks against major cities in the United States at the start of the war on Iraq.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and counter-terrorism sources, that group is the Iranian opposition organization, Mujahideen a-Khalq, guests of Saddam Hussein, whose headquarters and primary bases are located mainly in the Baghdad area.
Intelligence information recently obtained by US counter-terrorism officials and their counterparts in other Western countries shows that Saddam has decided to activate Mujahideen a-Khalq’s networks in the United States and Europe for mega-terror attacks in the major cities in which they maintain a longstanding and largely unnoticed presence. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism sources say Saddam believes that the Mujahideen a-Khalq’s big advantage over other terrorist groups derives from it having long been ignored by US and Western intelligence agencies. These fiery Iranian terrorists may therefore have a good chance of getting away with a pre-emptive terrorist attack or revenge strike in retaliation for American military action against Iraq.
The Iraqi ruler has no doubt that the Mujahideen a-Khalk will do his bidding.
Its members, fierce opponents of the ayatollahs’ regime in Teheran, have called Iraq their home away from home for more than two decades. Its more than 15,000 uniformed soldiers trained in guerrilla warfare in open territory and in built-up areas and armed with the latest weaponry, are stationed in special Iraqi military camps. Save for the Republican Guard, which protects Saddam and his sons, they are perhaps the best-trained and equipped force in Iraq.
US intelligence operatives inside Iraq noticed in recent weeks that Saddam had begun to employ Mujahideen a-Khalq units to assassinate opponents of his regime, maintain order in Shiite areas of Iraq where anti-government disaffection is boiling over, and perform intelligence missions against US special forces in Iraq. Over the past week, Mujahideen a-Khalq has stepped up its activities significantly.
With the help of Iraqi intelligence, Mujahideen a-Khalq has established terrorist networks inside Iran, carrying out sporadic strikes against government offices in Teheran – mainly firing weapons from a distance or short-range missiles. Iran has responded with air and medium-range missile attacks on the group’s training bases.
In addition to its terrorist infrastructure in Iran, Mujahideen a-Khalq has also established intelligence and terrorist networks – again with the help of Iraqi intelligence – in expatriate Iranian communities in the West.
An estimated two million Iranians fled the country when Khomeini deposed the Shah 24 years ago. For years, these exiles have put up the bulk of the organization’s recruits. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and counter-terrorism sources say it has planted networks in the million-strong Iranian exile community in the United States. California alone has about 450,000 ex-Iranian émigrés; the group’s branches have been set up in Canada’s 100,000-strong former Iranian community and in Britain and France, each of which hosts around 30,000 Iranian expatriates.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism experts, the thousands of Mujahideen a-Khalq fighters have a lot to lose from Saddam Hussein’s overthrow. They can say goodbye to their operational and power base and main source of revenue. Faced with this prospect, the organization under its leader, Mariam Rajavi, has determined to do its utmost to serve its patron and keep him in power in Baghda
Modificato da - gz on 2/7/2003 10:35:21