MAN gestore di hedge fund automatici - gzibordi
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By: GZ on Mercoledì 21 Novembre 2001 19:21
usare l'intuito e l'esperienza
e usare un sistema autoatico sono due strade diverse
ad es uno dei migliori titoli alla borsa di Londra quest'anno è Man Group, che è un broker, ma soprattutto fa i soldi come gestore di hedge fund
E SONO TUTTI HEDGE FUND COMPUTERIZZATI
tra cui il famoso fondo AHL che ha reso di media +33% negli ultimi anni
ma se uno si pone il problema di fare un programma computerizzato deve studiare
queste cose e quindi l'esempio che fa Funes
è il tipo di cose che si devono analizzare
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Man Group: Man Group, the hedge fund manager, has turned in
another sparkling set of results. Funds under management are up 33% in the
six months to the end of September and continue to grow strongly. First half
profits have doubled from a year earlier. The company is now a member of the
FTSE 100 and will shortly enter the MSCI index. How long can 'Superman' - to
use a phrase coined by one of the firm's house brokers - keep it up?
Unfortunately, no knows the answer to this question. Management
is naturally bullish. The company's flagship AHL fund, which trades futures
in roughly 100 markets, continues to perform strongly and there is no
evidence that the increased size of funds under management is damaging
performance. However, there are two irreversible laws of the markets that
even Man cannot buck.
First, abnormal profits will attract competitors, who whittle
away excess returns. Man uses sophisticated quantitative techniques to trade
markets, but it does not have a proprietary black box. Indeed, former
employees - the so-called 'Sons of AHL' - are already operating
independently. Secondly, the aggregate profits from arbitrage in any market
is limited. As more capital flows to futures arbitrage, returns must
necessarily fall. Man has avoided such problems to date by exploiting new
markets, but new opportunities are limited. It is therefore unlikely that
investors in Man's hedge funds will enjoy over the next ten years the
roughly 20% annual returns they received over the past decade.
However, even if the future is not as bright as the past, Man's
business may well prosper. As the bear market deepens, retail and
institutional investors become keener to increase their exposure to
alternative investment vehicles. With its two-hundred year trading history
and extensive distribution network, Man is one of the more reputable
destination for hedge fund investment. Given the company's strong growth
prospects, the shares on around 20 times forward earnings do not look
overpriced.
Author: Edward Chancellor