Ciena doveva affondare il Nazz - gz
By: GZ on Giovedì 22 Agosto 2002 20:34
la cosa curiosa di oggi è che tutti hanno detto: "..se ^Ciena#^ annncia risultati buoni oggi allora il Nasdaq sale Ciena è il titolo che decide oggi perchè non ci sono altre notizie e ci sono speranze che arrivi qualche notizia buona sul lato networking..."
Bene Ciena ha annunciato un disastro, peggio di così non poteva e il Nasdaq è su a 1043 e ha rotto la trendline giornaliera
Questo contrasto tra notizie e azione del mercato vuole dire qualche cosa
(vedi sotto la bellissima analisi dei risultati di Ciena di Melanie Hollands )
L'altra cosa curiosa è che chi scrive questa analisi da scorticare vivo è un "analista", una tizia che ha lavorato a McKinsey e Solomon e stranamente capisce qualche cosa delle aziende
Melanie Hollands specializes in converging communications technologies, such as computer and communication hardware, software and operating systems, wireless data, and telecom services and hardware. She has more than a decade of experience in business strategy (McKinsey & Co. and Bain & Co.), corporate finance (Salomon Smith Barney) and equity research (Merrill Lynch), specializing in the technology and telecommunications sectors, and has received an Institutional Investor All-Star Honorable Mention. Hollands holds a BS in Structural Engineering from Melbourne University and an MBA in finance and economics from Columbia Business School.
--------------da RealMoneyPro ----------------
Melanie Hollands covers the Ciena earnings call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
08/22/02 10:54 AM EDT
Given what I've heard on this call, I think this stock is headed for $3. Investors would be wise to consider it a reduce or sell. I don't like the rhetoric about breakeven operating expense levels, cash burn, lack of detail about customer growth and revenue growth opportunities. I don't like their view that carrier spending is looking better; that does not match up against what I know at all.
I just don't get the right "feeling" from how they are answering questions about product development and market development opportunities. They seems to be doing the soft shuffle around much of this stuff.
I would not be a holder or a buyer of the stock. I think risk is going up because execution risk at the company sounds high.
China could be a good opportunity for 2003 for double-digit millions of revenue. Carriers are restructuring and talking to vendors for '03 plans now. Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq) is pushing hard across its line, anchored with the CD. China Rail is one possible customer, so there is some real demand, but this won't be enough, I don't think, to help Ciena overcome its other issues.
In addition, Ciena management's guidance for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was for a "flat to slightly up quarter" from the fiscal third-quarter results. However, given a more cautious outlook at key carriers, low visibility and flat IT spending, the outlook in general for tech for 2003 (and quite possibly again in 2004) and oem's, I continue to be comfortable with my overall assessment of CIEN.
No Major Leadership Changes
08/22/02 09:34 AM EDT
In response to a question about management changes: They don't envision further changes in leadership beyond changes in the metro products, with the Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq) leader departing and the ONI Systems leader replacing him.
Operating Expense Challenges
08/22/02 09:31 AM EDT
Operating expenses: Company is working on lowering opex. Breakeven revenue is in the $280 million to $300 million range, and if the company manages to reduce cash burn significantly and gets opex down, then breakeven revenue comes down too.
Lowering the breakeven level is important for Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq).
08/22/02 09:29 AM EDT
About "those 10% customers" in the quarter (of which one is Sprint (FON:NYSE)), they were existing customers, not acquired with ONI.
They got a 2500 products from the ONI systems acquisition, but had not typically had a sales channel for the products.
Q. Please talk about the addressable market for the product.
A. Market for the 2500 is a "customer premise" product and there will possibly be enterprise channels that they seem to be in the process of negotiating
Delayed Spending in China
08/22/02 09:25 AM EDT
Q. Inventory charge?
A. Less than 10% related to commitments.
Q. China market?
A. Outlook for second half of calendar year. There is delayed spending in China due to spending with China tel and regulations in China.
Modificato da - gz on 8/22/2002 19:7:15