Arafat-Al Qaeda-Israeale

 

  By: shabib on Mercoledì 12 Gennaio 2011 16:08

Fiamma mostra come non si vuole capire da dove viene il demone..... Le stragi di cristiani ed ebrei che devastano il Medioriente Il Giornale, 5 gennaio 2011 Come fermeremo le uccisioni di cristiani nel mondo islamico, come si evita la prossima strage in Iraq, in Turchia, nelle Filippine, in Nigeria, ovunque alberghino gruppi islamisti? Prima di tutto, chiamandole per nome e cognome: non si tratta di «intolleranza religiosa» ideologica, non di casuali «gruppi di fondamentalisti» né di «alcuni terroristi». Se si guarda la carta geografica, è ormai maculata da stragi, espulsioni, rapimenti, chiese vandalizzate... È il mondo islamista nella sua vasta, massiccia terribilità che colpisce i cristiani, e la responsabilità è di chi per opportunismo o per paura di rappresaglie sui cristiani ha ritenuto che col silenzio avrebbe pacificato gli aggressori. Il fatto che appena il Papa ha protestato chiamando il mondo islamico «mondo islamico» e il Mufti di Al Azhar abbia esclamato «ingerenza», la dice lunga sul paradosso dell’atteggiamento dell’islam istituzionale: che sarà mai qualche morto, taccia il secolare nemico romano. Se lo si chiede il teologo e professor padre Peter Madros, oggi al Patriarcato di Gerusalemme, per tanti anni direttore della scuola dei Freres a Betlemme, un sacerdote che ha combattuto la decimazione dei cristiani a Betlemme senza fare sconti anche agli israeliani, pure egli mi indica chiaro, per capire, il testo del Corano: «Dopo pagine sulla concordia che deve vigere, pur nella sottomissione dei cristiani e degli ebrei che (versetto 9/29) devono comunque pagare la Gizia (la tassa per i non musulmani, ndr) se non abbracciano l’Islam, c’è un altro verso rivelatore (5/51): non lasciatevi dominare né dagli ebrei né dai cristiani». Il nodo è tutto qui: il mondo islamista è determinato a costruire un mondo in cui i due comprimari siano tenuti in stato di sottomissione culturale, religiosa, politica. Ed è invece accaduto negli ultimi sette secoli che il mondo occidentale abbia preso il sopravvento, dichiarando così, nell’interpretazione bigotta di vaste organizzazioni e persino di Stati interi, come l’Iran, una guerra contro l’Islam che deve ancora essere vinta. Naturalmente non tutti la pensano così, ma le bombe fanno rumore, mentre la buona volontà non si sente. Nel 1919 la rivoluzione egiziana portava per egida una bandiera verde con la mezzaluna e la croce. Sia i musulmani che i cristiani erano parte di una rivoluzione nazionalista contro il colonialismo britannico. Ma le elite dei nostri decenni, spaventate anche dall’omicidio di Sadat che aveva concluso la pace con Israele, hanno lasciato spazio a un processo di islamizzazione strisciante che pacificasse i gruppi più aggressivi, come la Fratellanza Musulmana. I libri di testo nelle scuole rappresentano oggi l’Egitto come un Paese soltanto islamico e includono testi anticristiani. Il trapianto di organi fra musulmani e cristiani è proibito per una decisione del sindacato dei dottori, che come altri è dominato dalla Fratellanza Musulmana. Il governo recentemente ha bloccato la costruzione di una scala in una chiesa copta e i copti, continuamente aggrediti (8 furono uccisi un anno fa), non esistono in politica benché siano il 10 per cento della popolazione. Mubarak, che così facendo tiene a bada la Fratellanza tanto che l’ha emarginata alle ultime elezioni, fa come l’Arabia Saudita, lo Yemen, la Siria, la Giordania e più lontano il Pakistan: crede di domare il domatore, che invece viene messo in grado di sguinzagliare il suo odio a piacimento, mettendo a repentaglio anche la sua leadership. Le televisioni iraniane, libanesi, turche hanno accusato i “sionisti” della strage di Capodanno. Ma sì, perché non cercare di colpire almeno un po’ gli ebrei anche in questa occasione? È nello stile della casa: dal pogrom Farhud di Baghdad nel 1941, in cui furono uccisi 180 ebrei, e poi in Libia (130 morti) e poi in Turchia (tre attacchi alle sinagoghe dall’86 a oggi, 47 morti), a tutte le violenze che hanno causato la fuga di quasi tutti gli ebrei, il mondo islamico ha fatto fuggire da 600mila a un milione di ebrei. Profughi irriconosciuti dall’Onu, come i cristiani fuggiti dallo stesso mondo in cui ormai la popolazione cristiana, una volta quella originale, è ridotta al 6 per cento. The real reason of the massacres of Christians and Jews in the Middle East Il Giornale, January 5, 2011 How can we stop the slaughter of Christians in the Islamic world, how can we prevent the next massacre in Iraq, Turkey, the Philippines, Nigeria, wherever Islamic groups may be? First of all, we should start calling things by their real name: this is not ideological «religious intolerance» and the perpetrators are not random «fundamentalist groups» or «some terrorist». If we look at the map, we can find examples in many countries: massacres, expulsions, kidnapping of women, acts of vandalism on churches... It is the entire Islamist world that is battering Christians with the terrible inexorability of its hatred, but all those who – opportunistically or for fear of reprisals against Christians – have kept silent, in hopes of appeasing the aggressors, share in the responsibility. The fact that as soon as the Pope protested, calling a spade a "spade", namely calling Islam "Islam", the Mufti of Al Azhar blasted him for «interference», says a lot about the paradoxical attitude of institutional Islam: what do a few murders matter? The perpetual Roman enemy has no right to speak out. If we ask the theologian and professor Father Peter Madros, now in the Patriarcate of Jerusalem, formerly director for many years of the Frères College in Bethlehem, where he fought the decimation of Christians without making discounts to the Israelis either, he can clearly indicate the explanation in the text of the Quran: «After pages where the text explains that harmony must reign within the People of the Book, though with the subjection of Christians and Jews who (verse 9/29) must in any case pay Jizya (the tax for non-Muslims, ed.note) unless they convert to Islam, there is another revealing verse (5/51): do not allow either Jews or Christians to rule over you». The heart of the problem is right here: the Islamist world is determined to build a world in which the other two main faiths are held in a state of cultural, religious and political subjection. And instead, in the last seven centuries the western world has been dominanting and, in the bigoted interpretation of vast organizations and even entire countries like Iran, this amounts to a declaration of war. This is the war that Islamism now wants to win. Not everyone in that world feels that way, but bombs make a lot of noise, while good will remains silent. In 1919, the Egyptian revolution adopted a green flag with the crescent and the cross. Both Muslims and Christians participated in the nationalist revolution against British colonialism. But mostly since the assassination of Sadat, who had signed a peace agreement with Israel, the new élites left room to a process of gradual Islamization aimed at appeasing the most aggressive organizations, like the Muslim Brotherhood. The textbooks used in the schools today describe Egypt as an Islamic country only, and the children read also anti-Christian texts. As the Jerusalem Post writes, organ transplants between Muslims and Copts are prohibited by a decision of the physicians’ union. Labor unions indeed are often dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. The government recently halted construction of a stairway in a Coptic church and Copts are under constant attack (8 were killed also a year ago). Despite being no less than 10 percent of the population, they have no political representation. Mubarak, by acting this way, keeps the Brotherhood at bay, and thus succeeded to marginalize it in the last elections. This is the way that Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Jordan and Pakistan behave: they think they have tamed the tamer, who actually becomes stronger and stronger, thereby threatening even his leadership. The Iranian, Lebanese and Turkish television have accused “Zionists” of the New Year’s massacre in Alexandria. Oh sure, let’s try to put at least some of the blame on the Jews once again! That is their style: from the Farhud pogrom of Baghdad in 1941, in which 180 Jews were killed, and then in Libya (130 dead) and also in Turkey (three attacks on the Nevè Shalom synagogue from 1986 to the present, with 47 dead), to all the violence that has caused the flight of almost all the Jews, the Islamic world has kicked out of the Arab countries between 800,000 and a million Jews. These are refugees that the U.N. has always refused to recognize, like the Christians in flight from the same countries, where the Christian population, once the native one and the majority, is now reduced to 6 percent. http://www.fiammanirenstein.com/articoli.asp?Categoria=3&Id=2493

 

  By: ebreo errante on Mercoledì 26 Giugno 2002 03:48

Anche Israele chiaramente ha la su parte di responsabilità nella crisi che si è creata, è da dementi ad esempio pensare di mantenere gli insediamenti in Cisgiordania .

 

  By: lutrom on Martedì 25 Giugno 2002 23:39

Ebreo errante, da che mondo è mondo sono caduti imperi e sistemi di potere che parevano immodificabili: chi ha il potere ha sempre l'illusione di contare più di quanto conta in realtà, foss'anche re Luigi XIV di Frania o Augusto imperatore romano. Comunque prima di toglierci di torno Arafat e compagni ne passerà di tempo: quello che deve maturare, e tanto, è il popolo palestinese, rimasto, con tutto il rispetto, all'epoca delle nostre crociate (e loro fanno le crociate contro l'America e compagnia); ma un po' devono cambiare anche gli ebrei che hanno vari scheletri nell'armadio, ma, come si sa, siamo tutti capaci di vedere i difetti degli altri, meno i nostri.

 

  By: ebreo errante on Martedì 25 Giugno 2002 15:58

In qualità di ebreo errante mi sento chiamato in causa. Concordo che Arafat e la dirigenza palestinese non ha come vero obbiettivo la nascita di uno stato palestinese. L'OLP ha interesse a mantenere uno stato di conflittualità permanente con Israele soprattutto perchè è da questa lotta perenne che deriva la sua legittimazione al potere presso il popolo palestinese. E' ovvio infatti che nel momento in cui si arrivasse ad una vera pace con Israele allora anche l'attuale classe dirigente sarebbe messa in discussione : chi ha passato la vita ad organizzare attentati ed Intifade sarebbe totalmente inadeguato a governare una palestina in pace e desiderosa soprattutto di sviluppo economico . E poi non si potrebbe più attribuire le colpe per tutto ciò che non funziona agli ebrei cattivi . Da che mondo è mondo è chi comanda ad avere interesse che nulla cambi, perchè il mantenimento dello status quo è presupposto indispensabile per la conservazione del potere .

Arafat-Al Qaeda - gzibordi  

  By: GZ on Martedì 25 Giugno 2002 02:46

Chi guardi il grafico delle borse nota che dopo il massimo in marzo 2000, sono rimaste ferme fino a settembre (2000) e solo da quella data hanno cominciato a franare. Cosa è successo a settembre 2000 in particolare ? Ad esempio è la data in cui Arafat e l'OLP (nei documenti ufficiali continua a firmarsi "OLP") dopo aver rifiutato in luglio gli accordi offerti da Clinton e Barak a Camp David ha lanciato la seconda fase dell'intifada basata sugli attentati suicidi. I primi attentati suicidi sono stati in settembre 2000. Ora siamo arrivati (stasera) dopo circa due anni, dopo le stragi di Al Qaeda e dopo un nuovo apice della campagna terrorista in Israele al punto in cui il parallelo tra Al Qaeda e l'OLP è sempre più stretto e l'America stessa lo percepisce come tale con il discorso di Bush. Stratfor.com di oggi (il report di strategia internazionale molto seguito) si chiede: perchè Arafat e l'OLP hanno puntato tutto sulla strategia del terrore suicida in questi due anni anche se è evidente che non da nessun risulato in termini di concessioni o accordi e anzi ha cancellato tutto quello che sembrava a portata di mano nell'estate 2000 ? E' evidente che si tratta di una strategia ben coordinata e finanziata e per la quale si usano tutte le risorse sia di propaganda che militari dell'autorità palestinese e allo stesso tempo è evidente che non sembra portare a nessun risultato nel senso della creazione di uno stato palestinese. Allora perchè ? Cito: " la strategia palestinese non ha senso se non contesto di un allineamento con Al Qaeda.. gli scopi di Arafat e di Al Qaeda sono man mano diventati convergenti. ("...Palestinian strategy makes no sense except in the context of alignment with al Qaeda. We are not saying that there is deep cooperation going on between the Palestinians and al Qaeda although we would be very surprised if representatives of the two entities have not met and coordinated at times. Rather, what we are saying is that the goals of the Palestinians and those of al Qaeda have converged...") Se si legge tutta l'analisi si vede che ci sono sempre più indizi che Arafat abbia scelto non di ottenere uno spazio a fianco a Israele,ma di puntare a una trasformazione del mondo islamico per la quale occorre tenere a tutti i costi acuto lo scontro in Israele a qualunque prezzo. L'obiettivo non è quello immediato di uno spazio e uno stato per i 4-5 milioni di palestinesi in cisgiordania e gaza a fianco di Israele, ma dello scontro continuo con Israele e con i suoi alleati come mezzo per essere protagonisti di una trasformazione del mondo arabo. Per Al Qaeda il terrore contro l'america ha come scopo non tanto quello di "vincere", ma di diventare la leadership morale, religiosa e politica del mondo arabo, mostrando con i fatti di essere capaci di punire i nemici dell'Islam. L'obiettivo di Al Qaeda è essere a capo della trasformaziona del mondo islamico, di rovesciare i regimi corrotti e opportunisti, di ispirare le masse arabe e di spingere il mondo islamico allo scontro con l'occidente nemico. Sempre più la strategia di Arafat sta diventando incomprensibile se si pensa alla realizzazone di uno stato palestinese in cisgiordania. Diventa invece spiegabile se si pensa alla convergenza con Al Qaeda negli scopi di esercitare un ruolo guida politico per tutto il mondo arabo con l'esempio glorioso dei martiri che si sacrificano ogni giorno. Nessun governo arabo può competere in termini propagandistici con la forza morale e politica dei giovani che si immolano con le bombe legate addosso per colpire il memico sionista. E così per i giovani che si immolano con Al Aqeda per colpire il nemico americano. Le due strategie sono sempre più convergenti e simili e il loro potere di suggestione enorme per le masse arabe, La conclusione di tutto questo è che rispetto a 2 anni fa abbiamo ora due forze radicate nel mondo islamico che competono e indirettamenre collaborano per ottenere a forza di terrore suicida (o di "martirio" si si vuole) la leadership morale e poi forse politica araba. Questo significa che sempre più i palestinesi dell'OLP torneranno alla politica degli anni "70 di attacco agli interessi occidentali e americani nel mondo. Tutto questo è un GROSSO CAMBIAMENTO rispetto a due anni fa e porterà molte disgrazie prima che si arrivi a una soluzione ".....One explanation is that the Palestinians no longer believe a solution to their problem is attainable on a local basis. This means they do not believe they can reach their goals through negotiations with Israel sponsored by third parties, such as the United States. Rather, they believe now that their goals can be reached only in the broader context of a transformation of the Islamic world and a redefinition of the relationship of the Islamic world not only to Israel but also to the West in general...." --------------------- da Stratfor.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 June 2002 Summary It is difficult to see the strategy behind Palestinian tactics. Suicide bombing has clearly become a mainstream Palestinian tactic, one that makes the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip unlikely to the point of impossibility. It not only locks Israel into a war-fighting mode but also eases diplomatic pressure on Israel to make a settlement. The Palestinians know this. So why have the Palestinians adopted this tactic? The answer lies in what must be a fundamental strategic shift on the part of the Palestinians. They no longer see the creation of a rump Palestinian state as a feasible or desirable end. Rather, despite the hardship of an extremely extended struggle, they have moved toward a strategy whose only goal must be the destruction of Israel. Since that is hardly likely to happen any time soon, the Palestinians must see forces at work in the Islamic world that make this goal conceivable and not just a fantasy. Analysis Embedded in the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli war is the fundamental question: What is the ultimate Palestinian strategy? We see the tactics unfolding daily, but it is neither clear what the Palestinians expect to achieve nor what strategy links these tactics to their ultimate goal. The suicide bombing campaign, involving both Hamas and Al Aqsa Martyrs, a unit of Fatah, is a well-defined and well-coordinated, mainstream Palestinian movement, not an errant action by splinter groups. Certainly, the Palestinians do not expect to be able to defeat Israel militarily by conducting suicide attacks. Nor do they expect to succeed at driving a wedge between Israel and the United States. To the contrary, the Palestinians are quite sophisticated managers of Western public opinion, and they understand that the suicide attacks decrease the probability of such an outcome, regardless of Israeli response. The lack of strategic clarity stems from the murkiness of their ultimately incompatible goals. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's public goal, and the foundation of all third-party peace efforts, is to create an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and in Gaza. There are, however, two other possible goals: to reclaim all of the lost territories and create a Palestinian state throughout the former Palestine, not incidentally destroying Israel, or to reconcile the two goals and create a hybrid of a smaller Palestinian state as a springboard for broader operations aimed at ultimately defeating and occupying Israel. The Palestinians' current tactics are only slightly compatible with a strategy aimed at creating a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. For this to be their goal, the Palestinians would have to believe that the bombing campaign will drive a wedge between the Israeli government and the Israeli public who will demand an end to the war and willingly give the Palestinians an independent state in return, overriding any security considerations of the Israeli government. The Palestinians observed a similar process take place over the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. Possibly they believe they can achieve the same end on a much grander scale through this campaign. Were this the goal, it would suffer from two serious defects. Historically, bombing campaigns designed to drive a wedge between the public and the regime have failed. When delivered from the air -- as in the Battle of Britain or the bombings of Germany, Japan or Vietnam -- they did not succeed, even at much greater numbers of casualties than are likely to be experienced in Israel. The Palestinians must be aware that bombing campaigns against the homeland tend to fail. They also know Israeli sentiment very well and are too sophisticated to believe this campaign will result in a groundswell in Israel demanding negotiations. Quite the contrary, it is likely to freeze Israeli public opinion in an intransigent mode. But even if the suicide bombings forced Israel to capitulate on creating a Palestinian state, a Palestine consisting of the West Bank and Gaza would be an untenable solution, and the leadership knows it. First, a consensus would never be reached, and someone would object sufficiently to organize new attacks and undermine any agreement. Second, a small Palestine would be economically and militarily untenable: It would never be free of Israel's orbit. Therefore, Palestinian nationalism could accept a small Palestine only as an interim measure on the way to a greater Palestine. Most important, the Palestinians know that the Israelis are completely aware of this and therefore are not going to reach a settlement with Palestine on something that cannot be guaranteed: the complete cessation of warfare and an absolute commitment to accept the permanence of Israel. Which still leaves the question of why they are waging this type of campaign. One explanation is that the Palestinians no longer believe a solution to their problem is attainable on a local basis. This means they do not believe they can reach their goals through negotiations with Israel sponsored by third parties, such as the United States. Rather, they believe now that their goals can be reached only in the broader context of a transformation of the Islamic world and a redefinition of the relationship of the Islamic world not only to Israel but also to the West in general. From the Palestinians' standpoint, their fundamental problem is hostility or indifference on the part of Islamic states and Arab states in particular. Jordan has been actively hostile to Palestinian interests after Arafat almost overthrew the Hashemite monarchy in 1970. Egypt's peace treaty with Israel has kept it from redefining its relationship to Israel while paying only rhetorical attention to the Palestinian issue. The Syrians have supported factions of the Palestinian movement, still dreaming of annexing Palestine into a greater Syria. Other, more distant states have been more bellicose but no less ineffective. The Palestinians' fundamental problem of being isolated from Arab resources and power enables Israel to act against them without real concern for its other frontiers. Therefore, the Palestinians cannot hope to win. The needed transformation of the Islamic world will take a long time to achieve. On the other hand, from the Palestinian point of view, time is on their side. Given that all quickly attainable solutions leave them in an unacceptable condition, they have nothing to lose by playing for the long-term solution. Given Palestinian psychology, a long-term strategy of enormous proportions is politically more viable than short-term strategies that cannot deliver genuine solutions. They can either capitulate or continue to struggle, but a small Palestinian state would not satisfy their needs. Nor could it preclude the continuation of war by Palestinian rejectionists and therefore would not be accepted by Israel. The Palestinians' only hope is a redefinition of the general geopolitics of the region. It is in this sense that the ongoing suicide campaign must be understood. Having accepted that no political settlement in the smaller context of Israel and Palestine is possible, the Palestinians have accepted a long-term strategy of unremitting warfare using whatever means is available -- for now, suicide bombers -- as the only alternative. The price is high, but given the stakes, their view is that it is worth it. It follows that the Palestinians will accept reoccupation by Israel and use that reoccupation not merely to drain Israeli resources but also to create an atmosphere of war designed to energize the Islamic world for a broad redefinition of relationships. The suicide bombing campaign cannot be intended to achieve any significant short-term goal. First, it is not likely to generate a peace movement in Israel --quite the contrary. Second, it locks the United States into alignment with Israel, rather than driving a wedge between the two. Finally, it creates an extreme psychology within the Palestinian community that makes political flexibility all the more difficult. The fervor that creates suicide bombers also creates a class of martyrs whose sacrifices are difficult to negotiate away. The breadth and intensity of the suicide bombings force us to conclude that the Palestinian leadership is focusing on a long-term strategy of holding the Palestinians together in a sense of profound embattlement, transforming the dynamics of the Arab world and then striking at Israel from a position of strength. In short, the Palestinians think that time is on their side and that sacrifices for a generation or two will yield dividends later. If they wait, they will win. Here Palestinian strategy, intentionally or unintentionally, intersects with that of al Qaeda, which also is committed to a radical transformation of the Islamic world. Its confrontation with the United States is designed to set the stage for this transformation, enabling the Islamic world to engage and defeat the enemies of Islam. For al Qaeda one of the pillars of this confrontation is the Palestinian question, which it defines as the recovery of Islamic land usurped by Israel, a tool of the United States and Great Britain. For al Qaeda, the Palestinian question represents the systematic repression and brutalization of the Islamic world at the hands of both Christianity and the secular West. Israel is merely the most extreme and visible dimension of Western injustice. Palestine is, at the same time, a primary means of energizing the Islamic world. The ongoing injustice of the Palestinian situation combined with the martyrdom of the bombers creates, in al Qaeda's view, both a sense of embattlement and religious fervor with profound political consequences. Hamas and Al Aqsa Martyrs are powerful recruiting tools for al Qaeda. If the Palestinians have adopted the long-term strategy we described, then al Qaeda is the means of achieving their geopolitical end. If the precondition for the defeat of Israel is a transformation of the internal politics of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and the rest of the Arab world, then al Qaeda is currently the only force fighting toward this end. In the same way that Arafat's generation aligned itself with Egypt's Gamel Abdel Nasser, Arab socialism and the Soviet Union in an attempt to find a geopolitical lever to destroy Israel, so today's generation has to look for geopolitical salvation among Islam's religious fundamentalists. Al Qaeda is the only group operating effectively at the moment and therefore, by default if not by intention, al Qaeda is serving the Palestinians' interest and vice versa. For al Qaeda, a Palestinian settlement would be politically and morally unacceptable: Morally, it would represent a betrayal of Islam; politically, it would defuse a critical, energizing issue. Any agreement that would accept the permanent loss of territory to Israel would increase the power of accommodationists in the Islamic world. Al Qaeda needs an ongoing confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis to serve its ends; the Palestinians need tremendous pressure brought on the Arab world to serve their interests. The Palestinians also need a transformation in the Arab world. Here the two interests coincide. Israel, then, becomes a foundation of al Qaeda's political strategy in the Islamic world, as well as a test bed for tactics and military strategies. Palestinian strategy makes no sense except in the context of alignment with al Qaeda. We need to be very careful here. We are not saying that there is deep cooperation going on between the Palestinians and al Qaeda although we would be very surprised if representatives of the two entities have not met and coordinated at times. Rather, what we are saying is that the goals of the Palestinians and those of al Qaeda have converged. Whether this was by design or by the logic of their situation is not really relevant. What is relevant is the convergence not only of tactics but also of a strategic and geopolitical perspective. Unless the Palestinians undergo a profound change of goals, they need al Qaeda to be successful to aid their own success. Al Qaeda is helped enormously by Palestinian behavior. If not a word had ever been exchanged --which we doubt -- the interests would still have converged. And the alliance that grows naturally is the most powerful one. This means that no real peace process is any longer possible and that Israel can expect to be under constant pressure from the Palestinians. Then the question is, can Israel define a strategy for containing the Palestinians without simultaneously inflaming the Islamic world? More important, can the U.S.-Israeli relationship survive when what Israel must do to suppress the Palestinians flies in the face of American coalition-building in the Islamic world? Of course the Palestinians may hope to provoke a response from Israel that the United States cannot tolerate. However, this is not 1973. Israeli dependence on the United States is much less today than it was then, and therefore U.S. influence on Israel is much lower. Second, the United States is not likely to break with Israel when the trigger is suicide bombing -- not what the Palestinians want to hear, but it is exactly what al Qaeda would want. This is precisely the crisis both the Palestinians and al Qaeda want to create. Al Qaeda hopes to use U.S. commitment to Israel as a tool for political mobilization in the Islamic world, since the United States cannot accept the destruction of Israel and nothing less can satisfy the needs of the Palestinians. The forecast, therefore, is for pain.