Non era l'euro, ma l'oro l'alternativa - gz
By: GZ on Domenica 20 Novembre 2005 13:03
""...Are you surprised at the behavior of the euro?
Not really. It is a piece of garbage, really...." (spazzatura)
Il bello di alcuni gestori anglosassoni è la chiarezza.
Chi pensa che ci sia troppo indebitamento in America ha puntato sull'euro come alternativa, come Warren Buffett ma ci ha rimesso le penne quest'anno. Come mai ? Barron's di questa settimana intervista il gestore del migliore fondo aurifero Tocqueville Gold Fund, TGLDX (vedi sotto)
Ovvio che uno che gestisce un fondo aurifero parla bene del suo prodotto, ma in effetti l'indice aurifero è a +14% da inizio anno, l'oro in quanto metallo è salito del 24% in euro, +8% in dollari e +19% in Yen. Quando il dollaro scendeva nel 2003 e 2004 quasi tutti trattavano l'Euro e l'Oro come modi equivalenti di andare contro Dollaro. Errore !!!
L'Oro ha reso anche più di qualunque altra borsa europea, in dollari ha reso più dell'indice generale USA e anche in Yen, la borsa migliore del mondo, ha fatto pari con il Nikkei.
Notare che ora l'ORO come metallo sta andando molto meglio dei titoli auriferi (perchè sono società che hanno dei costi dipendenti dall'energia e perchè hanno fatto mega emissioni di capitale danneggiando gli azionisti)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2005 Interview with John Hathaway
Portfolio Manager, Tocqueville Gold Fund By SANDRA WARD
....................There is an ongoing currency debasing. Look at all the people who were bearish on the dollar a couple of years ago -- they've been been slammed because they put their money into the euro. They should have put it in gold. Warren Buffett just took a loss on part of his position in the euro. He was famous for being bearish on the dollar. How did he activate that? He took a €22 billion position because the euro was liquid and gold isn't.
Are you surprised at the behavior of the euro?
Not really. It is a piece of garbage, really. There is no national treasury that stands behind it, but a committee of bureaucrats. Then there's the politics and social issues in Europe. There's a big difference in the growth rate between the U.S. and Europe, and there's a big differential in interest rates between the U.S. and Europe. Gold is going to rise against the dollar and the euro and the yen, which it has been doing for quite a while, but it has been doing it quietly, so most people aren't even aware of it.
There are still a lot of skeptics on gold.
It's been five years since it's been in a bull market.
Before that it had been in a bear market for about 20.
These days, the generations are much shorter. Residual skepticism is all over the place, and it is terrific because it gives the bull case longevity. If everybody were on board the way they are with energy, I would have to think of a new investment theme to work on.
You have written about gold benefiting from a bubble in the U.S. Treasuries market.
The bubble is a reflection of the lack of investment alternatives. It is also a reflection of the perceptions of risk and the notion that Treasuries are a safe haven so they should be priced in a different way. There is so much money sloshing around the system, to the extent it is risk-averse it goes into Treasuries. On the other hand, you have negative real rates throughout the yield curve. Latest 12-month inflation is running about 4.7%. An investor has to go out almost 30 years on the yield curve just to get even. There is so much paper around and returns on assets are so hard to come by that it is driving money in this direction, and that's created the bubble. But these conditions are very favorable for gold.......