By: Moderatore on Sabato 10 Maggio 2003 14:28
Le ultime previsioni di Arch Crawford che abbiamo trovato.
.....Crawford, a longtime technical guru on Wall Street relies on zodiac charts and lunar eclipses, in addition to the typical technical indicators, to time major moves in the markets.
Crawford is not the only successful "financial astrologer" - Bill Meridian, a U.S. fund manager based in Abu Dhabi, who invests money for wealthy Arab investors, comes to mind.
But if Crawford's record is any indication - he accurately predicted the October 1987 market crash as well as the post-Sept, 11 selloff - then investors might want to take to heart his prediction that the recent rally in the equities markets has more room to go. But expect some bumps along the way.
"We may get some pullback in the near term and I would advise traders to short for the next day or two for a minor corrective phase of one to two weeks," he said. "But the market is much stronger than people expect and all the indications are better for several weeks."
On a technical basis, Crawford said the major indexes have climbed above their 200-day moving averages, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average forming an ascending triangle pattern. Crawford said the pattern, which consists of higher lows, shows bullish signs for an upward breakout. Technical strategists see an upside breakout of a triangle pattern as an indicator that the index will continue to climb higher.
Crawford added that the market's breadth, as determined by the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line, is also showing strength. On Monday, advancing issues outnumbered declining issues 1,850 to 1,398 on the NYSE.
But the heavens may portend some choppiness in the weeks ahead, particularly with the market facing a lunar eclipse on May 15 and a solar eclipse on May 30.
"An eclipse series tears up whatever pattern is in place in the market and brings in uncertainty," Crawford explained.
According to the stars, the lunar eclipse will occur at the same time as Mars conjoins with Neptune. For the non-astrologer, that means the markets could be faced with earthly mishaps such as accidents at sea, an attack on currencies, earthquakes or tsunamis. Interestingly, the lunar eclipse will take place the night before options expirations, which should bring in an excess of volatility during the options-driven trading session on May 16, Crawford warned.
Crawford said investors may want to wait until after the May 30 solar eclipse before going "200% long on the market using full margin."
He said jitters surrounding an eclipse often create better technical market indicators that would benefit investors.
It may sound kooky to the skeptical investor, but it's stellar formations such as these that have helped Crawford make some prescient calls on major market events. A huge planetary alignment in May 2000 of Saturn opposite Pluto warned Crawford that there would be a decline in economic activity, resulting in an extended bear market. In 1987, Crawford said a rare planetary cluster of the sun, moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars predicted that the markets were set to crash.
As for natural occurrences, Crawford accurately predicted the onset of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in his December newsletter.
"Mercury squares Neptune and Mars as Mars conjoins Neptune Station (resulting in) news of unusual airborne infections of unknown origin," Crawford wrote in his 2003 outlook.
So with some choppiness expected in May, what areas may investors want to dip into?
Commodities are the way to go in the near term, Crawford advised. Gold and oil plays benefit from the cycles of Jupiter and Neptune while the configuration proves to be weak for the equities markets. Crawford predicted that gold and oil stocks would jump on May 1, as Jupiter and Neptune began to oppose each other. Both the price of gold and crude oil climbed on that day, making the sectors among the strongest performers of the session.
Crawford expects gold and oil stocks to surge around May 26 and May 27 as the Mercury/Venus conjunction of planets squares against Jupiter, which is opposing Neptune. Oil and gold will likely top out On June 1 or June 2 as the Jupiter ends its opposition to Neptune and will retreat over the next two or three months with gold hitting a seasonal low in August, he said.
While many market participants may outwardly scoff at Crawford's unorthodox methods of market prediction, Crawford is certainly not worried.
"There are a lot of Wall Street professionals who don't care what you do as long as you've got the bottom line," Crawford said. "My newsletter subscription exploded this past year because when everyone started losing money, they started finding me. I'd tell the critics to stick that in their pipe and smoke it."