fonti della FED sul New York Times - Gzibordi
By: GZ on Martedì 04 Dicembre 2001 15:42
questo è il pezzo di oggi che cita fonti della FED sul New York Times
e che direbbero che la ripresa sarà più lenta di quanto si pensasse giorni fa
ed è il pezzo di cui tutti discutono stamattina a Wall Street
inmplicazione pratica ? beh il treasury bond o il bund salgono
(e questo va bene visto che li ho raccomandati la settimana scorsa)
ma per le borse non sarebbe l'ideale
December 4, 2001
Fed Now Says '02 Recovery to Be Gradual
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON with LOUIS UCHITELLE
ASHINGTON, Dec. 3 — Federal Reserve officials say they expect a modest and gradual recovery in the economy next year rather than the quick turnaround many investors and forecasters are expecting. That suggests the central bankers are open to at least one further interest rate cut and may keep rates lower for longer than financial markets anticipate.
The officials said the recovery could be tempered by a variety of forces, from high levels of consumer and corporate debt to the reluctance of companies to invest in new factories and equipment at a time of uncertainty in the economy and the fight against terrorism.
"I am of the opinion that the recovery will not begin until mid-2002," said Anthony M. Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. "I think the forecasters are overly optimistic."
Many private economists are predicting that a rebound will begin no later than the spring, and perhaps much earlier. Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm in Valhalla, N.Y., said he expected slightly positive economic growth in the current quarter, after a return to relatively healthy growth rates next year.
"I'm looking for a reasonably robust recovery that will surprise people with its speed and magnitude," Mr. Shepherdson said.
Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm in St. Louis, said economic growth should resume in the first quarter of next year. "Our forecast is for what would be called a V- shaped recovery," he said, referring to the prospect that the downturn that began in March will be followed by a strong upturn soon.
Fed officials said they also saw evidence that the recession could be coming to an end relatively soon. But in several interviews, some granted on conditions of anonymity, most stressed their belief that the turnaround was likely to be slow in getting off the ground and that any real recovery might not begin in earnest until summer. They suggested that the economy might end up being more sluggish than recent statistics suggest.
Even the more optimistic among them said there were considerable risks that could hinder the economy through much of next year. Before Sept. 11, many Fed officials were predicting that the economy was on the verge of stabilizing if not recovering.
On the plus side, the officials pointed to shrinking inventories, low energy prices, a rebound in the stock market, relatively strong consumer demand and the effects of the interest rate cuts and tax reductions already in the pipeline. And there was fresh evidence today that the economy might be close to bottoming out.
Personal spending in October rose by 2.9 percent, a record, in part because consumers took advantage of zero-interest-rate financing offers to buy automobiles, the Commerce Department reported. Construction spending in October increased 1.9 percent, the first monthly rise in six months. And there were signs that the worst might be over for manufacturing, with a survey by the National Association of Purchasing Management showing that the dropoff in manufacturing activity was slowing.
But most Fed officials remain worried that any rebound will be weak, at least initially.
In a speech last week, Laurence H. Meyer, a Fed governor, said his view was that "the economy should gradually strengthen over next year."
The main force inhibiting a strong comeback, Fed officials say, is the perception among businesses that the rates of return available to them from investing in new equipment remain too low given the uncertainty about demand for their products, the overall health of the economy and the risks associated with the campaign against terrorism.
In this view, the economy will not begin rolling again until capital investment rebounds. Capital investment was a primary driver of the economic boom of the late 1990's. But it fell off sharply starting last year, both a victim and a cause of a general reassessment of the potential for technology to improve business efficiency and profitability.
To the degree that businesses choose to trim capital spending in the face of economic risk and uncertainty, lower interest rates do not help much. Instead, Fed officials said, the return to more normal levels of capital spending will come about steadily — but slowly — as demand picks up and terrorism-inspired fear and risk diminish.
"High-tech equipment investment at elevated rates of return will, most likely, resume once very high uncertainty premiums recede to more normal levels," Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, told Congress in October.
Fed officials did not say whether they would cut interest rates for an 11th time this year when they meet next Tuesday, and Mr. Greenspan did not shed any light on his intentions on interest rates in a speech here today about globalization.
Mr. Greenspan also met for lunch today with President Bush to discuss the economy. "The president was interested in listening to the chairman's points of view on the economy," said Ari Fleischer, the White House press secretary.
Asked if any specific development in the economy had led to the session, the first since the economy officially was declared in recession last month, Mr. Fleischer said "the president has the economy on his mind despite developments around the world."
Investors are betting that the Fed will reduce its benchmark interest rate once more next week, to 1.75 percent from 2 percent. But investors are also betting that the Fed will reverse course next year and push its federal funds target rate up starting in late winter as the economy gains strength.
But the question of how soon the Fed will start raising rates again turns on how soon the recovery starts and how strong any turnaround will be. Fed officials are more cautious on that score than some other economists, including those inside the Bush administration. Testifying to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress last week, R. Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, said the notion that businesses continued to be burdened by an overhang of excess capital "seems unduly pessimistic."
As a general matter, Mr. Hubbard said, "any capital overhang is likely to have been eliminated by the weak investment performance in 2001."