Vai Short gli strategisti - Gzibordi
By: GZ on Martedì 11 Dicembre 2001 15:25
ho copiato e incollato questo pezzo molto bello che cita una statistica di richard bernstein, il capo analisi quantitativa di merril lynch, uno che appunto calcola
queste cose e che anche scritto un libro recente con una serie di queste regole.
In sostanza quando gli strategisti americani in media raccomandano il 70% o più di allocazione in azioni (il massimo insomma) la borsa poi scende
e quando raccomandano il 60% o meno di allocazione in azioni (il minimo insomma per loro che sono sempre tra 55 e 75%) la borsa poi sale
Al momento sono in media saliti sopra il 70%
Short the strategists!
Short the strategists: With the Dow Jones index breaking through the symbolic 10,000 mark, everyone wants to know whether the current ‘bull market’ is sustainable.
The bears say the rally will be short-lived. Stocks, they say, have been boosted by strong money supply growth. However, corporate indebtedness continues to pose problems. The number of ‘fallen angels,’ former investment-grade bonds, has reached record levels. Even before the collapse of Enron, banks were reluctant to lend. Now they will be even more cautious. According to this thesis, banks will start to hoard cash, the growth in the money supply will come to a halt and stocks will fall.
The bulls tell a different story. Greenspan and Bush will succeed in getting the economy back on track. Productivity will continue to grow strongly throughout the decade. Profits as a percentage of GDP will also climb back to their average levels. According to Citigroup, a combination of these factors will spur earnings growth of 7% over the following decade. Ed Kerschner of UBS Warburg has a year-end 2002 target price for the US stock market nearly 35% above its current level.
Whom to believe? Merrill Lynch Quantitative strategist, Richard Bernstein, has come up with a scientific solution to the problem of stock-market forecasting. Bernstein finds a negative correlation between the bullishness of sell-side strategists and the subsequent performance of the market. When strategists have an equity allocation of more than 60%, stocks tend to fall. Currently, US strategists are extremely bullish, with a near-record allocation to equities of over 70%. According to Bernstein, if the past is any guide to the future, the stock market is due to fall by 25% over the next 12 months.
Edited by - gzibordi on 12/11/2001 14:26:45