By: banshee on Giovedì 27 Febbraio 2003 20:59
THE MOTHER OF ALL TAR BABIES
I think this will be a gift for Osama bin Laden. He will be the beneficiary of it. He hates Saddam Hussein. He has a better chance of getting one of his men [in power] after we cause a lot of disruption over there. And besides, his recruiting operation is going to get a real boost. We are going to prove to many Muslims around the world exactly what he has been telling them all along, that we are over there to dominate, to control, and to get the oil. I think we have fallen into that trap. --Cong. Ron Paul
http://www.texasobserver.org/showArticle.asp?ArticleID=1246
The dogs of war are racing toward the tar baby. I think this war will begin on March 15 or close to it. The stock market has been suffering from uncertainty, as well it should.
This war will be a war mainly on Iraq's civilians. Maybe our troops will starve them out by capturing the oil fields -- the ones that survive Saddam's alleged preparations to blow them up -- and thereby cut off goods flowing into Baghdad. Or maybe pilots will bomb Baghdad into rubble. Or maybe our troops will have to adopt urban warfare because Iraq's troops will be mixed with the civilian population. Here is bin Laden's recommendation on February 11:
We advise about the importance of drawing the enemy into long, close and exhausting fighting, taking advantage of camouflaged positions in plains, farms, mountains and cities. The enemy fears the most the town fights and street fights. Such fighting would cause the enemy huge losses of souls.
We stress the importance of martyrdom operations against the enemy, these attacks that have scared Americans and Israelis like never before.
I don't think Saddam Hussein will step down. Nothing seems to faze him. He cooperates a little with the inspectors, but he is not rushing to let them inspect. He moves very slowly, very calculatingly, to retain power. Unlike bin Laden, he is not in a position to escape. Unless a smart bomb or a special forces unit takes him out very early, or one of his own officers, this war will be bloody. He will not surrender. He has been in a position to cut a deal with Bush for a year. He shows no signs of being willing to trade a promise of his amnesty for his resignation from office. He gives the appearance of being a wolverine trapped in a corner. He acts as though he believes he has been targeted for extinction personally, and there is no way for him to get out of the trap. This has increased his will to resist. We now face an enemy who corresponds to the enemy described by Sun Tzu around 300 B.C., who advised: Do not oppose those with their backs to the wall. . . . Leave an escape route for a surrounded army. . . . Do not press a desperate foe. http://www.thewarriorclass.com/our.htm
There is no question that the bin Laden audiotape identified Iraq as the prime target of "crusader" imperialism. He knows that Saddam and the Ba'ath Party are secularists, having little to do with Islamic religion, especially Saudi Arabia's Wahabi branch. But bin Laden is nothing if not a masterful PR manipulator. He knows his audience. He sees an American invasion coming, and he is preparing his organization's potential recruits for the emotional reaction that will follow this invasion. There is no love lost between bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, but there is a shared enemy: the United States. The tape says exactly what he has been saying for years. That's why I don't think it's a fake.
First, to be honest in intention that the fighting would be for the sake of God, not to triumph for nationalism or pagan regimes in all the Arab countries, including Iraq. God said in his book, 'Those who are the believers fight for the sake of God. Those who are infidels fight for the sake of the juggernaut. Fight the followers of the devil. The devil's cause is weak'. . .
You know that such a crusade war concerns the Muslim nation mainly, regardless of whether the socialist party and Saddam remain or go. So Muslims in general and Iraq in particular must pull up your pant legs for jihad against this unjust campaign. You should also keep the ammunitions and weapons, as it is an obligatory mission.
It is known before that you should not fight raising the pagan banners, but you have to, as a Muslim, to have a clear faith and banner during war for the sake of God, as the Prophet said, 'Whoever fights should raise the word of God'. It is not harmful in such conditions for the Muslims' interests and socialists' interests to come along with each other during the war against the crusade, without changing our faith and our declaration that socialists are infidels. Socialists' leadership had fallen down a long time ago. Socialists are infidels wherever they are, either in Baghdad or Aden. Such war which may take place these days is similar to the war between Muslims and Romans when the interests of the Muslims came along with the interests of the Persians who both fought against the Romans. Nothing was harmful for the Companions of the Prophet.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/02/12/1044927652254.html
It Was Never About Al Qaeda
In a January 8 article, Canadian war critic Stephen Gowans went after Canadian war hawk David Frum. Almost no one has heard of Gowans. A lot of people have heard of Frum, a former White House speech writer. Millions of people have heard a re-worked version of a phrase that Frum coined, "Axis of hatred." The version we know is "Axis of evil." Frum was fired by the White House after his wife went public with the information that he had coined the early version.
Frum is a neoconservative. Here is Gowans' account of what the public has now been told by Frum in his recent book on his experiences in the White House. George W. Bush put Saddam Hussein in his crosshairs shortly after 9-11, an attack conducted by a bunch of Saudi Arabians. Gowans summarizes Frum's account of what took place.
In late December 2001, chief presidential speechwriter Mike Gerson "was parceling out the components of the forthcoming State of the Union speech. His request to me," recalls David Frum in his new book The Right Time: The Surprise Presidency of George W. Bush, "could not have been simpler: I was to provide a justification for a war."
And so was born the phrase "the axis of evil." . . .
Key Bush cabinet members had been pushing for a take-over of Iraq and its oil fields for some time.
In September, 2000, Dick Cheney, now vice-president, along with his current chief of staff Lewis Libby, and Donald Rumsfeld, now Secretary of Defense, along with his deputy Paul Wolfowitz, laid out a plan to create a new American century, in which the United States would be supreme in the world, the first truly global empire.
The plan adumbrated regime change in Iraq, that is, the installation of a US puppet regime in Baghdad.
The events of 9/11 were pressed into service to provide the trigger.
Within hours of hijacked jets careening into the World Trade Center and Pentagon, Rumsfeld was ordering his staff to find something that could be used to pin the blame on Iraq.
National Security advisor Condoleeza Rice ordered her staff to consider the opportunities 9/11 provided, as if the grim events of that day were a sliver lining that could justify the vigorous extension of US hegemony.
In his book, Frum recounts how he spent two days dreaming up a pretext for "going after Iraq," eventually hitting on the "axis of evil" idea, which he originally conceived of as the "axis of hatred" but which Gerson changed "to use the theological language that Bush" (mirroring Osama bin Laden) "had made his own since Sept. 11."
While Frum denies the decision to launch a ground invasion had been made when he was asked to "sum up in a sentence or two our best case for going after Iraq," the events leading up to Frum's inventing a pretext for the mass murder suggest the decision had been made long before that.
http://www3.sympatico.ca/sr.gowans/frum.html
This means that the war on Iraq is not the result of the attack on the WTC. It is the result of other special interests.
Oil and the Great Game
"The Great Game" is the name given by participants and historians to the battle between England and Russia in the 19th century for control over India and contiguous nations. This phrase is now commonly applied to the Middle East as well, because of its oil.
This is not about a low price for oil. If that were the issue, then there would not be United Nations controls over Iraq's export of oil in its "oil for food" plan. Such restrictions reduce the flow of oil, thereby keeping the oil price higher. This war is over the control of oil at the margin. The price of oil is highly volatile. It responds dramatically to relatively small increases or decreases in the supply of oil. What oil retailers want is price stability. This is true of all oligopolies. This includes the oil cartel of the wholesalers (OPEC) and oil cartel of the retailers (the major oil companies -- "Seven Sisters"). They see the unhampered free market as somehow de-stabilizing. They want an alliance between big government and themselves. This is what they now possess, and have for 70 years.
When Libya's Ghadaffi stole Bunker Hunt's oil by nationalizing the oil fields in 1971, OPEC's leaders watched for a reaction from the West, especially the United States. There was no reaction. Within two years, OPEC made the first major hike in oil's price. The oligoplists saw their opportunity, and they took it. They did it again in 1979. This created uncertainty for their partners, the oil company retailers. The retailers want stability. They want high profit margins, not low prices. Oil is a nonrenewable resource. Its price should reflect this. Retailers want predictable supplies and predictable prices.
Iraq has the second- largest known oil reserves. When the United States military controls access to Iraq's oil fields, the Administration will gain control over the spigots. The Administration can then determine the marginal price of oil. It can see to it that OPEC never again unilaterally raises the price of oil by restricting production.
The war in Iraq is about oil. It's about controlling the marginal supply of oil, thereby reducing the volatility of oil's price. It's about divvying up the flow of Iraq's oil among participants who are presently also-rans behind France and Russia. It's also about Bush II getting revenge for his father's refusal to take out Saddam in 1991.
There are now reports that the managers of the oil wells have ordered large quantities of dynamite. How the media know this is uncertain. The official interpretation is that Saddam is preparing for the destruction of the oil fields, comparable to what retreating Iraqi troops did to Kuwait's oil fields in 1991. If the reports are true, then oil production could be squeezed badly, beginning as soon as it's clear to Saddam that he is about to be overrun. If not true, the reports would justify an initial securing of the oil wells by the U.S. Army.
The least risky strategy of invasion would involve the capture of the oil fields and the economic strangulation of the cities. This is a variation of a traditional naval blockade. It can work because Iraq's source of foreign currency is its oil. The wells are identifiable targets for occupation. Once U.S. troops control these fields, the French and the Russians will confront a fait accompli. Like our troops in Saudi Arabia, nobody can get them out.
This will play right into the hands of bin Laden. His main objection to the United States for a decade has not changed: the presence of American infidels on Islam's holy land, Saudi Arabia. What his audiotape was all about is to rally his own troops and also the pool of young men who serve as his target audience. He gave them this message: "The infidels are coming for you, too. It's not just Saudi Arabia that is under oppression."
There was another obvious tactic in his release of that tape. He was forcing American strategists to admit that they had not killed him. The standard reply has been this: "He may be dead." But the Administration's desire to tie Al Qaeda to Iraq was too great to resist. No one officially said, "The tape is a fake. It's not bin Laden." By not immediately announcing that it was a fake, the Administration had to admit that bin Laden, like the Scarlet Pimpernel, has eluded them. He has thumbed his nose at the Great Satan.
His targeted audience of young, angry Arab males who are dedicated Muslims now knows that bin Laden is alive. He is still providing a voice for their anger. He is still their senior representative. If the U.S. invades, Saddam Hussein will be killed. This will leave bin Laden as the voice of resistance for Islam in general and the Middle East specifically. This man is very clever. He is in a win- win situation. Whatever the outcome in Iraq, he can pick up the pieces at his convenience. His words are preparing his followers for protracted conflict:
We also make it clear that anyone who helps America, from the Iraqi hypocrites (opposition) or Arab rulers, whoever fights with them or offers them bases or administrative assistance, or any kind of support or help, even if only with words, to kill Muslims in Iraq, should know that he is an apostate and that (shedding) his blood and money is permissible (in Islam). . . .
I also assure those true Muslims should act, incite and mobilise the nation in such great events, hot conditions, in order to break free from the slavery of these tyrannic and apostate regimes, which is enslaved by America, in order to establish the rule of Allah on Earth. Among regions ready for liberation are Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, the country of the two shrines (Saudi Arabia), Yemen and Pakistan.
As I have been saying for years, his model is The Old Man of The Mountain, the legendary medieval leader of the Assassins, a revolutionary Islamic brotherhood. Osama bin Laden is not tied to any civil government. He can present himself as the representative of the Islamic holy people precisely because nobody elected him, and therefore nobody can unelect him. The more that the regional political leaders claim to be opposed to him -- Ghadaffi is the latest to do so -- the more he undermines their legitimacy in the eyes of the voters who count: angry young fanatics. He is calling them to become martyrs.
He can be matched now only by religious leaders. But Islam is decentralized. Even if a few mullahs announce their opposition to violence, this will do little good for the West. Because bin Laden has positioned himself as the voice of the holy people, despite his lack of ordination or its Islamic equivalent, he cannot be placed under anyone's formal discipline. He cannot be silenced except by killing him. You can't kill him if you can't find him.
We are being told by the Administration that we face a war that will last for decades. Doug Casey calls it the Forever War. This is exactly what it is. It is also the tar baby, or the "uncongealed tar baby." George W. Bush is B'rer Rabbit. B'rer Bear is Saddam Hussein. And B'rer Fox is Osama bin Laden. President Bush is about to ram his fist into the tar baby because it just doesn't respond when he talks to it. (It is a shame that the politically correct decisionmakers at Disney years ago permanently pulled "The Song of the South" out of circulation. It was a great film for all age groups. In the revised book version of Disney's version of B'rer Rabbit and the tar baby, it's a glue baby. It's white.)
The CIA, whose estimates have not been particularly reliable, has estimated: "By 2015, only one-tenth of Persian Gulf oil will be directed to Western markets; three-quarters will go to Asia."
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015
If this estimate turns out to be anything near the truth, then China will be paying through the nose for its oil, and it will be paying American/European producers. The looming war in Iraq is America's response, three decades later, to the OPEC hijacking of 1973. Western retailers are going to recapture some of the oil revenues that have flowed through their fingers since 1973. This is not about cutting oil prices. This is about allocating the booty: from Islamic governments to Western oil companies.
China is steadily becoming the world's number-one manufacturer of low-price goods. The West's money is flowing into China. This means that China's investors are buying Western debt and other investments. China is following a rule laid down by Moses 3,500 years ago:
The LORD shall open unto thee his good treasure, the heaven to give the rain unto thy land in his season, and to bless all the work of thine hand: and thou shalt lend unto many nations, and thou shalt not borrow. And the LORD shall make thee the head, and not the tail; and thou shalt be above only, and thou shalt not be beneath; if that thou hearken unto the commandments of the LORD thy God, which I command thee this day, to observe and to do them (Deuteronomy 28:12-13).
The U.S. Treasury Department is becoming more and more dependent on the policies of China's central bank and government. Instead of allowing China to continue to lay up U.S. debt, the Administration is about to take active steps to re-direct the flow of dollars toward American oil companies and Middle Eastern oil-producing nations that have American troops inside their borders or right next door, e.g., Iran.
The Great Game continues, but with the United States' having replaced Great Britain. Russia is still in the game. The question is: How deeply? If Iraq really does have nuclear capability, then Saddam bought the technology and the raw materials from Russia. There is no other likely source. China is a second suspect. Both Russia and China are opposed to the war in Iraq.
Domestic terrorism is now the wild card. This was never a consideration in the original Great Game. It is now. Bin Laden began his message with these words:
In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Beneficent: A Message to our Muslim brothers in Iraq. Alsalam Alikom Wa Rahmat Allah wa Barakato. (Koran verse) Oh Believers, be pious to God, and never die but when you are believers in Islam.
We are following with utmost concern the Crusaders' preparations to occupy the former capital of Islam (Baghdad), loot the fortunes of the Muslims and install a puppet regime on you that follows its masters in Washington and Tel Aviv like the rest of the treacherous puppet Arab governments as a prelude to the formation of Greater Israel.
Because of the complete dependence of the West on Middle Eastern oil, it is obvious even to amateur military strategists what the Islamic radicals' targets will be in the Middle East: the oil wells. There will be a war on the sources of the West's oil. The "treacherous puppet Arab governments" are the ones that are allied to the West. Bin Laden is rallying his troops and future recruits with a call to undermine the Arab governments of the Middle East. When this happens -- and it will happen -- the United States will be forced to send in troops to keep the oil spigots open. We are about to embark on phase two of a program of occupation that began in 1990 in Saudi Arabia.
The war in Kuwait was U.S. policy to persuade the Saudis to allow the United States to station troops permanent ly inside Saudi Arabia. The U.S. government distrusts the Saud family's ability to maintain continuity, which means continuity of the flow of oil. The Administration lured Saddam Hussein into that attack when it instructed April Glaspie, our Ambassador to Iraq, to tell Saddam on July 25, 1990, that the U.S. had no opinion on his invasion of Kuwait. This is old news, but we need occasional reminding. The transcript from the New York Times (Sept. 23, 1990), is posted on the website of Montclair State University.
GLASPIE: I think I understand this. I have lived here for years. I admire your extraordinary efforts to rebuild your country. I know you need funds. We understand that and our opinion is that you should have the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait.
http://www.chss.montclair.edu/english/furr/glaspie.html
Iraq invaded on August 2. Bush within days then said we would go to war to defend Kuwait. This news came as a shock to Gen. Schwarzkopf. On February 5, 2003, The Guardian ran an account of how the United States tricked Saudi Arabia into inviting American troops into their country.
In 1990 as the US prepared for its first war with Iraq there was heavy reliance on the use of "classified" satellite photographs purporting to show that in September 1990 - - a month after the invasion of Kuwait -- 265,000 Iraqi soldiers and 1,500 tanks were massing on the border to gear up to invade Saudi Arabia. The threat of Saddam aggressively expanding his empire to Saudi Arabia was crucial to the decision to go to war, but the satellite pictures were never made public.
Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2 1990. The US cabinet met the same day. At that point, war was no more than a possibility. Norman Schwarzkopf recalls the prevailing mood in his autobiography, It Doesn't Take a Hero. He quotes General Colin Powell's remark to him: "I think we could go to war if they invaded Saudi Arabia. I doubt if we would go to war over Kuwait."
Within days the mood at the top had hardened. When Schwarzkopf next met Powell, he was told to prepare to go to Saudi Arabia. "I was stunned," he says in his book. "A lot must have happened after I left Camp David that Powell wasn't talking about. President Bush had made up his mind to send troops."
It gets worse. . . .
The photographs, which are still classified in the US (for security reasons, according to Brent Scowcroft, President Bush senior's national security advisor), purportedly showed more than a quarter of a million Iraqi troops massed on the Saudi border poised to pounce. Except, when a resourceful Florida-based reporter at the St Petersburg Times persuaded her newspaper to buy the same independently commissioned satellite photos from a commercial satellite to verify the Pentagon's line, she saw no sign of a quarter of a million troops or their tanks.
Jean Heller, an investigative reporter on the St Petersburg Times, has been nominated for a Pulitzer prize five times and come second twice, so when she asked permission to spend $3,200 on two satellite pictures, the newspaper backed her.
Heller's curiosity had been aroused in September when she read a report of a commercial satellite -- the Soyuz Karta -- orbiting and taking pictures over Kuwait. She wanted to see what the only independent pictures would make of the alleged massive build- up of Iraqi troops on the Kuwait/Saudi border. Soyuz Karta agreed to provide them. But no trace of the 265,000 Iraqi troops and 1,500 tanks that the US officials said were there could be found in the photographs. . . .
Jean Heller wrote her story for the St Petersburg Times. It opened with the words: "It's time to draft Agatha Christie for duty in the Middle East. Call it, The Case of the Vanishing Enemy."
Looking back now, Heller says: "If the story had appeared in the New York Times or the Washington Post, all hell would have broken loose. But here we are, a newspaper in Florida, the retirement capital of the world, and what are we supposed to know?"
A year later, Powell would admit to getting the numbers wrong. There was no massive build- up. But by then, the war had been fought.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,889419,00.html
Because of the World Wide Web and Google, a researcher can locate such information rapidly. Yet the vast majority of Americans are still unaware of all this or else they just don't care.
Presidents Bush have had an agenda: to get American troops stationed in every oil producing Middle East nation. One by one, by invitation or by invasion, our troops are going in. One by one, Islamic terrorist radicals are preparing to drive us out. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that part of this counter-offensive will take place on America's soil.
Bin Laden has now drawn a line in the sand. He specifically identified Bush, Senior as the initiator of the White House's present strategy. He speaks of U.S. troops.
They are fighting only to serve the interest of those who have the capital, arms dealers, oil owners, including the criminal gang in the White House. Adding to that, those who keep their personal envoys, Bush the father.
The text in the BBC's transcript is clearer: "This is in addition to crusader and personal grudges by Bush the father."
A terrorist network is always highly centralized. It is difficult for civil authorities to penetrate its command structure. When its members are also screened by religious confession, the network becomes even more difficult to penetrate. The West has opened its borders to millions of people who profess the faith of Islam. This has placed Western nations at a great disadvantage. They have within their borders large organizations that give cover to, and camouflage to, Islamic radicals.
To bring down the economies of the West, Islamic terrorists need only disrupt the flow of oil. Yes, this will starve the populations of the oil-exporting countries, but envy is a powerful force. In a war, fanatics call on their own followers to become martyrs. Bin Laden is doing this. What do they care if the apostates -- Islamic citizens who have adopted a Western lifestyle -- should also perish? Their goal is to bring down the West.
The United States is now committed to military occupation. The troops will not be home for Christmas. The decentralized economies of the West are tied to highly centralized sources of oil: socialist governments (Iraq, Venezuela), Islamic one-party governments, and a handful of free market governments. But, here at home, green socialists (environmentalists) care more for Caribou than people. We are not allowed to drill for oil in Alaska.
President Bush has wrapped his family's long-term strategy of military occupation in the swaddling clothes of anti-terrorism. Bin Laden has responded to the Bush family's challenge. He has re-defined the war's terms from anti-terrorism to anti-Crusaderism. He has made it a holy war, a jihad. This has been his strategy for a decade. Any military retreat by the United States from this point on will be seen by Islamic radicals as their victory. This will whet their appetite, which cannot be appeased.
America already has one fist in the tar baby. That took place back in 1990-91. The French and the Germans see where this is headed, and they seek to keep their second fist out of the tar. They don't want to be seen as co-conspirators. But this may not work. They are seen by Islamic radicals as part of the Crusader regime, which the United States best represents. The day that we invade Iraq, our other fist goes in. I see only one way out: a successful palace coup that leads to a new regime. (I mean in Iraq.) The new regime would invite the U.N. inspection team to go anywhere. This would confront Bush with a Fait Accompli. The justification for invading would disappear.
As far as I can see, only one good thing will come out of this: the final nullification of the United Nations' official reason for existence. The Iraq war will prove, once and for all, that the United Nations Organization is a toothless bureaucracy that nobody with weapons of mass destruction needs to pay any attention to.
When it comes time to hand out the blame -- and it will -- here will be a good place to begin: Charles Krauthammer's call for Americans to become full-time policemen of the Middle East, at our expense in blood and taxes rather than Arial Sharon's.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/printout/0,8816,421021,00.html
The Economic Implications
The Iraq war has no specified limits. It is just another battle in the Forever War. The Administration's goal will be attained: U.S. troops stationed permanently in Iraq. There may initially appear to be a military resolution. This will serve to reduce the sense of uncertainty in investors' minds. I think there is a real possibility of a rebound in the stock market later this spring. But this will not change the reality of America's journey deeper into the tar baby of the Middle East.
Tens of millions of American families still believe in the ability of the U.S. stock market to provide them with the funds they will need for their retirement. They have been told this for two decades. The bubble of 1996-2000 lured them into fantasyland, and not even the bursting of Nasdaq's bubble has shaken their faith. They still think there is hope in the S&P500. Their faith will be broken only by the erosion of the market because of the effects of the Forever War.
Trillions of dollars of on-paper capital is now gone. It will not come back. It was always a sucker's play anyway. There was no way they could all cash out. Late-comers were wiped out. They will not put any new real money into that market, which they now see as one enormous illusion. High-tech capital was always an illusion based a lot of money flowing into a thin market that was legal for pension money and conventional investing. Like the fiber optic cable that now lies in the ground, unused -- "dark fiber" -- so is the dream of getting rich with the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq's capital base existed as a statistical artifact of the imputation of the latest share price to millions of shares. Now the imputation process has taken 90% of it away. "Imputation giveth, and imputation taketh away. Cursed be the name of imputation." Bullish imputations subsidize fantasies.
Gary North