NOKIA - gzibordi
By: GZ on Martedì 11 Giugno 2002 16:43
commento molto acuto mi sembra: da un parte i VOLUMI di cellulari venduti da Nokia sono aumentati del 10% e la quota di mercato resta al 38% che è buono. Dall'altra i prezzi stanno calando e ha perso un poco di quota.
Ma gli utili sono stati confermati perchè è riuscito a ridurre i costi e questo non se lo aspettavano gli analisti tutti impegnati a lamentarsi del fatto che la sua quota di mercato sta calando.
Quindi i volumi ci sono ancora e ci sono dati anche sul versante americano da Verizon ad es che mostrano che a differenza dei computer i cellulari crescono ancora
Dato che Nokia era attaccata da tutti gli analisti nei prossimi due giorni può avere una ricopertura dei ribassisti che si erano ammassati a spingere giù il titolo.
Poi però (credo giovedì) arriveranno i dati delle vendite di maggio e quelli possono essere peggiori per cui ci sono due giorni di tempo per il rimbalzo
Nokia announced the mid-quarter update – and it went smack across the market consensus on volumes. The most distinguished banks in business have spent the last three weeks crafting elaborate, impressively professional-looking research reports on how Nokia’s market share is tanking. Yeah, right. It was a real smooth move to use Amazon.com data for global forecasting. In reality, the phone volumes are up by a big 10% year-on-year. The market share probably rose to 38%. The surprise in the report was the vehemence of Nokia’s new price war strategy -- the revenue guidance went out the window as the average sales price of phones crashed by 10 euros in three months. But unlike Intel, Nokia did not fight the price war at the cost of profitability –- margins remain above 20%. That was the shocker -- the ability to push production costs down as much as needed for an outright price war. This is what markets have refused to believe –- that Nokia is a better manager of costs than Intel. That explains the initial reaction. The telecom rebound of this week remains just about on track as the chip companies and operators react to that 10% phone volume increase. On top of that, the Nextel confirmation comes smack on top of the Verizon confirm, propping up the operators further.
But this is a really, really fragile move we have here. I think the short squeeze that has been slowly starting may finally get some traction today –- but it could evaporate just as soon as the previous meaningful telecom bounce (which was about 4 days). By Thursday, my view on the telecom move is going to expire -- I don't see anything good coming from the May retail info. Let's hope we get even that far.
----------- breakingviews -------------
Nokia, the world’s leading mobile phone group, delivered its scheduled mid-quarter update on Tuesday.
The Finnish company predicted its second-quarter net sales would fall by between 2% and 6% year on year to between E6.9bn and E7.2bn. This compares with its earlier guidance of 2% to 7% growth.
The mobile phone unit is now expected to grow sales by between zero and 4%, instead of the previously stated 5% to 10%. Nokia Networks sales are expected to fall by 20% to 25%, compared with earlier guidance of a drop of between 5% and 10%.
Despite these revisions, Nokia is sticking with its earlier forecast of pro-forma earnings per share – between E0.18 and EUR0.20 on a diluted basis.
“Nokia Mobile Phones pro forma operating margins are expected to be above 20%, demonstrating Nokia's ongoing strong product competitiveness in this market," the group said in a statement.