Banca di Roma

proprio per questo può migliorare molto se poco poco si decidessero a fare una anche marginale ristrutturazione.

proprio per questo può migliorare molto se poco poco si decidessero a fare una anche marginale ristrutturazione.

in pratica c'è la possibilità che venda il 49% di mediocredito centrale a fininvest goldman sachs che la spinge (anche perchè sono i loro advisor) e il fatto che gli analisti però non hanno ancora un buy, molti hanno un target inferiore al prezzo attuale e possono cambiare idea detto questo resta una banca che ha numeri peggiori di qualunque banca in europa ============================================ dal WSJ ================================= Banca di Roma's stock has fared worse than some of its Italian competitors. In the past two years, Banca di Roma shares have fallen 42%, while Unicredito Italiano SpA shares have risen 6.4%. Sanpaolo IMI shares have gained 0.54%, while IntesaBCI shares have dropped 26%. Banca di Roma is aiming for return on equity of 9.8% in 2004 -- analysts expect 5.5% for 2001 -- and a cost/income ratio of 55%. "The plan is far too aggressive," said Dresdner Kleinwort's Marcello Zanardo, who has a hold rating on the stock. Metzler Bank's Manuela Meroni agreed: "The RoE targets are more credible than the ones the bank suggested last year [13%], although still hardly reachable." She also has a hold rating. But even if those targets look ambitious, they are still far behind the RoE of sector peers. In 2000, Unicredito Italiano posted 20.8%, Banca Intesa SpA 13.5% and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA 12.8%. Banca di Roma's 2000 performance was 4.5%. Its 2001, nonperforming loans were about 6.6% of total loans, compared with a 2% average for the Italian banking sector, one analyst estimated. The bank hasn't released 2001 earnings yet. Hesitation also exists over how the bank intends to handle the proposed merger with Bipop-Carire SpA, but Banca di Roma's chairman, Cesare Geronzi, still wants to give a turnaround another shot. Meanwhile, Matteo Arpe, the future director general of Banca di Roma Holdings -- who currently leads Mediocredito Centrale, Banca di Roma's investment-banking arm -- is trying to show the financial community that the bank plans to get back at least on par with its fellow Italian banks. But how will that be achieved? For starters, with an updated holding structure that organizes the bank into three macro divisions -- traditional banking, asset gathering and investment banking -- and by aiming for challenging profit targets. But also, and most importantly, by cleaning up the bank's asset quality. The plan envisions net provisions for loan losses falling 6% to represent 0.63% of total customer loans in 2004. To further improve its loan portfolio, Banca di Roma plans to introduce a new securitization in the second half of this year for a book value of 2.6 billion euros. And it will sell a stake in Mediocredito Centrale of as much as 49%. Fininvest SpA, the holding company owned by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's family, is among the investors contacted about taking a stake in Mediocredito Centrale, said Italian daily financial newspaper MF, in a report on Wednesday. The report cited people familiar with the matter who confirmed Fininvest's interest in studying the project. Others contacted about possibly acquiring a collective stake of as much as 49% are the Pirelli SpA group, Fiat SpA unit Toro Assicurazioni and financier Emilio Gnutti with a pool of banks, insurance and industrial companies. Fininvest declined to comment. The move to sell a stake would certainly bring Banca di Roma fresh cash, maybe as much as 750 million euros, but more significantly it would open Mediocredito Centrale's doors to new associates in an attempt to turn Mr. Arpe's fiefdom into a potential southern rival to Milan-based Mediobanca. Marco Tronchetti Provera, the boss of Pirelli; Fiat; and financier Roberto Colaninno are names the Italian media have touted as potentially interested parties. Fiat already has a close relationship with Banca di Roma through Toro, its insurance arm that has a 10% stake in the bank. But for Mr. Colaninno, and particularly for Mr. Tronchetti Provera, it could be more than an investment. It might mean being seen as taking sides with Fiat against Mediobanca in the Byzantine complexity of Italian business relationships. Ratings agency Fitch says it wants to see a change in performance and implementation before changing its triple-B-plus to a long-term rating. "The bank hasn't enough income and capital to meet risks," said Fitch's Matthew Taylor. A number of analysts are holding their ratings until the outcome of exclusive merger talks between Banca di Roma and Bipop are known. Bipop's board meets at the end of the month, and a shareholders' meeting is scheduled for April. The Bank of Italy is encouraging the merger. A deal between the two banks would improve Banca di Roma's valuation multiples because the southern bank would gets access to Bipop's northern franchise, analysts said. But Banca di Roma isn't friendless. Goldman Sachs has a buy rating, acknowledging that the targets are "challenging" but "achievable." Then again, Goldman is one of Banca di Roma's investment advisers. But whether the new generation of managers will achieve what one analyst has called "potentially the best turnaround story in Europe" remains to be seen.