Analisti Europei di Oggi - gz

Scusate, ma debbo intervenire nuovamente perchè vorrei esprimere il mio modello ideale di analista: Prof. A. Penati della Bocconi di Milano, che ebbe il coraggio circa un anno fà, quando la stragrande maggioranza degli analisti sostenevano che il target price di Mediolanum, sarebbe dovuto essere di 14, mentre quotava appena 10, sostenne che invece sarebbe dovuto essere di circa 5. Tutti noi abbiamo potuto vedere come in realtà è andata. Fraternamente e con rispetto. <Abby Cohen ha detto preciso preciso "Buttatevi sull'azionario" questo pomeriggio.> Notizia di Rael. Sandro Modificato da - Sandro Cecconi on 8/22/2002 1:48:33

Egr. Dott. Zibordi, ho letto anche questa volta con molta attenzione quanto da lei scritto veementemente, sinceramente non riesco a comprenderne i motivi. Volevo soltanto dimostrarle che basta aspettare e tutto è più chiaro. A proposito di Pirelli, per onestà storica, la prima a sparare sulla società non è stata Warburg ma Leman, strano appena dopo che il gruppo aveva acquistato OLivetti e quindi Telecom Italia. Mi domando: come mai? Mi sbaglio o la nota casa era la consulente primaria del gruppo Colaninno? Non credo. Vogliamo mettere a confronto i due diversi stili di gestione societaria? Si ricorda quando il Gruppo Tronchetti fece la conferenza con tutti gli analisti? Ebbene io ero presente per conto della mia banca. Inoltre deve sapere che quando alla fine del 1999 ci siamo incontrati con molti altri analisti a Londra, al momento non ricordo per quale società, alcuni miei amici mi hanno confidato che davano dei giudizi estremamente lusinghieri e alzavano i target-prices in quanto seguivano il mercato al rialzo e cercavano giustificazioni invereconde, assurde, prive di qualsiasi logica per giustificare prezzi che salivano sempre al ritmo del 2/3% quando andava male. Oppure dobbiamo far finta di non ricordare quando una delle più grandi banche del mondo, tra le prime 15 (olandesi) dette un price futuro(ex ante frazionamento, parlo di Tiscali) di 1750€ quando ne quotava 1200? Sa come la chiamavamo Tiscali, che tra l'altro giudico una bella società, in quel periodo? "Vu cumprà". Vergognoso è dir poco. Inoltre ho conservato un report su Seat qundo quotava circa 5 €, il mio amico che me lo ha inviato lo ha intitolato: Per non dimenticare. Mi scusi se anche io le rispondo di getto, ma ho troppa di lei e del suo modo di gestire questo sito per far finta di non averlo letto. Inoltre sappia che non sono e non voglio essere né rialzista né ribassista, il mio "mestiere", che amo, è quello del consulente e questo voglio fare. Mi creda sulla parola, per me il guadagno è solo la conseguenza della prestazione della mia opera professionale. Mi scusi ancora una volta, ma non vogliamo vedere come è salita Wall Street pochi giorni prima di Ferragosto quando stava perdendo solo oltre il 2%? Suvvia, come come disse Totò: siamo uomini o caporali? Oppure dobbiamo far finta che il Caso Merrill e anche altri, non siano mai accaduti? I danni in tribunale chi li ha pagati? Vede in questo forum qualche giorno fà è comparso un certo Marino con lo pseudonimo di WASCOLI che chiedeva notizie sul LIFFE BUND, sa quante volte sono stato tentato di scrivergli per consigliarlo di lasciare stare per ora qualsiasi tipo di investimento e cercare di investire il proprio danaro sulla sua formazione professionale? Non l'ho ancora fatto per non toglirgli un sogno ma credo che questa sera lo farò come farebbe un buon padre. Sandro

avevo gia' letto ma ringrazio il post per a beneficio degli altri. e come al solito sollevo un'altra questione: certi downgrade li fanno per permettere al proprio trading desk di comprare le azioni che stanno scappando (magari dove sono short). Insomma se la divertono nell'uno e nell'altro senso. Tutti da buttare via quindi? E' il divertimento dove rimane poi? Bella domanda. Peccato che non lavoro alla SEC altrimenti mi impegnavo a trovare la risposta e la relativa soluzione. Bah per un lauto compenso potrei cominciare a pensarci sopra. F.

The Valuation Evaluation 8/21/02 11:07 AM ET Jamed de Porre TheStree.com One irritating development I've been noticing lately is that a number of downgrades by analysts are based on valuation. Stocks that have been acting very well technically are getting cut as they break out and make strong moves. In the past week I've noticed downgrades on valuation of Boyd Gaming (BYD:NYSE), Safenet (SFNT:Nasdaq), United Online (UNTD:Nasdaq) and Checkpoint Software (CHKP:Nasdaq), among others. All these stocks were acting very well technically when they were downgrade. In the past, especially in the bubble days, analysts tended to increase their targets rather than cut ratings when stocks acted in this manner. I imagine the current environment, with the increased scrutiny on analysts actions, is pushing them to stick to their original target forecasts rather than raise them. Quite often these downgrades on valuation are quickly shaken off by the market but they can mess up momentum nicely and kill a good pattern fairly quickly. Boyd Gaming is a good example of a stock that quickly shook off a downgrade on valuation

Egr. Zibordi...chiave di lettura troppo semplicistica per discolpare nel gruppo anche i tanti venditori di illusioni. Siamo tutti d'accordo che la stima, per definizione stessa, cerca solo di essere un'approssimazione del risultato a posteriori. Se l'analista o il CEO di turno avesse la palla di cristallo non starebbe neanche a fare l'analista o il CEO. Gli basterebbe andare a giocare tutte le settimane i numeri del lotto. Il problema quindi non e' sbagliare le cifre PER difetto, ma sbagliare le cifre CON difetto. Che sia quello di una miopia da giuggioloni accecati dalla bolla speculativa (ma i giuggioloni non stanno a fare gli analisti e tantomeno i CEO) o di una avidita' ben calcolata per arricchirsi alle spalle dei veri creduloni. F.

Qui ogni volta che una società di analisi o casa di investimento dice che un azienda farà 2000 di fatturato se poi invece fa 1800 deve essere una truffa ? Uno che dice che gli utili aumenteranno è un venduto ? E se invece poi aumentano chi glielo dice all'investitore, lei ? Ma non vi siete accorti che ora ogni volta che i titoli salgono gli analisti impauriti li "abbassano" subirto perchè "la valutazione è ora piena.." ? ^Check point#^ mi sta salendo ogni giorno e per ogni +10% che fa gli analisti l'abbassano per paura che sia troppo cara. Su ^Pirelli#^ quando era a 1.05 20 gg fa Warburg è uscita con il target a 0.85, lo ha notato anche maiocco qui e siamo ora a 1.20. Oggi ^CVC#^ mi fa un altro +23% e non c'è un analista che gli dia il buy, sono terrorizzati e più sale più abbassano. Nel 1998 avrebbero alzato il target quando un titolo rimbalzava o saliva e ora tolgono il buy. La borsa non è mai la stessa per più di un anno o due di fila. Per anni su titoli come Microsoft e Intel e tanti altri, per tutti gli anni dal 1990 al 1999 ad es gli analisti hanno sbagliato PER DIFETTO. Per anni nonostante fosse loro interesse dare dei buy su Microsoft, Intel o Oracle non riuscivano a stare dietro all'esplosione del business. Quando le borse andavano su dal 1982 al 1999 di 4 volte è stato perchè gli analisti erano onesti ? E se dal 2000 al 2002 hanno perso il 50% è stato perchè erano interessati a pomparle ? Anche oggi, 21 agosto del 2002 ogni giorno, ci sono stime sbagliate PER DIFETTO come quella di Axia di oggi, gli analisti sono spaventati, i giornali e anche le tv un poco li sfottono (in america non da noi) il pubblico li odia e loro abbassano le stime per non sbagliare Ho lavorato per due aziende di consulenza in cui ti chiedevano di stimare come sarebbe andato il fatturato o l'utile o altro per cercare di fare su questi stime delle scelte di investimento interne all'azienda ad es di Coca Cola in Inghilterra o Ansaldo Ogni volta sbagliavi o per difetto o per eccesso anche con le migliori intenzioni del mondo e anche avendo accesso ai dati interni aziendali e spendendo 2 mesi in azienda Stessa cosa per gli analisti anche quando sono di società indipendenti il cui unico business è fare della ricerca, provate e vedrete che mica è facile. La borsa sale quando le stime sono troppo basse e vengono man mano riviste al rialzo e viceversa scende se sono alte e vengono riviste al ribasso (come è stato negli ultimi due anni). Io non so già a priori se verrano riviste al ribasso, guardo giorno per giorno quelle che escono le confronto con i numeri disponibili. Invidio molto chi invece sa già che tutte le stime degli analisti di qualunque genere, sono sempre e tutte troppo alte e immagino faccia un sacco di soldi facilmente vendendo tutto sempre al ribasso Modificato da - gz on 8/21/2002 22:53:38

Caro amico e marstro di sapiente ospitalità, come vede a meno di 48 ore dal pessimismo annunciato ipocritamente, ecco che rispuntano in modo spudorato gli ottimisti da strapazzo; che sia per il rush finale e far andare gli indici sui livelli da me indicati in altro post o addirittura sopra per liquidare l'equity? Verificheremo al momento opportuno. Così potremo mettere alla prova quanto scritto da Arch Crawford il 26/7 u.s. Ora il mercato si fa davvero interessante, che ne pensa? A presto Sandro

Ehi... oggi è una giornata in cui piovono i giudizi positivi degli analisti e il mercato sale non è vero che le due cose non c'entrano niente ^Ericsson#^ balza del +30% perchè si ha meno paura del debito (vedi quanto ho detto di recente sui titoli spazzatura) ^Credit Suisse#^ riceve un mezzo buy ^Axa#^ soprende con risultati buoni I bond di ^KPN#^ sembrano attraenti GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Zuercher Kantonalbank analyst Christoph Ritschard broaches theme of ^Credit Suisse#^ Group (Z.CSG) being a turnaround pick. But he takes the cautious approach. He would wait for proof of a lasting improvement in profit and risk situation, even though shares have priced in the prior bad news. Rates market weight. Shares +4.7% at CHF37.75. (BAK) 1150 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^MLP#^ (G.MLP) +5.3% at EUR16.83. CSFB says MLP "put growth on a back burner," at last week's interims with annual average forecast growth to slow to 20% from 30%, as efforts redeployed to shore up existing custom, "profit profile of unit-linked business" altered to a "more prudent basis." CSFB lowers 02 EPS forecast 46% to EUR0.60 and 03 37% to EUR1.10, given MLP's PTP downgrade to EUR100M, from EUR195M. Fair value now EUR22 from EUR26 per share. (KOO) 1151 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--CSFB says Julius Baer (Z.JBH) is still a hold, with a break-up value of CHF363. Shares are up 0.7% at CHF371. "We are cautious with regard to the outlook for Julius Baer's asset gathering and asset management businesses." So, CSFB reduces EPS estimates, '02 cut 14%, '03 by 17%, '04 by 18%. (BAK) 1137 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Alcatel#^ (ALA) +12% at EUR5.65 on the back of European tech sector rally triggered by Ericsson's (ERICY) 30% surge. "There is a significant short squeeze in Ericsson shares amid talk of Middle East clients moving holdings out of US assets into Europe," says trader. "Alcatel is clearly benefitting from this trend and from the fact that it has lost nearly 70% since the beginning of the year," he adds. (MJK) 1136 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Bank Julius Baer analysts see Sika (Z.SIK) posting a 0.5% increase in 1H net profit to CHF32M when company reports Fri. Sales seen -1.6% at CHF1.02B due to negative currency effects of around -7%, bank says. Positive local currency growth rates seen in all regions, but CHF growth seen only for Asia Pacific and Africa. Baer doesn't think Sika cut costs disproportionally and so sees a slight decrease on the operating level. Shares -0.6% at CHF350. (CCS) 1133 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Swissca portfolio managers are skeptical of current rally. Swissca says that in the absence of significant issues to dominate the equity markets, technicals have taken over to lead shares higher. Swissca doubts this gain will last much longer, and so refrains from raising its share quota. It concedes that relative values favor stocks over bonds. (BAK) 1128 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Goldman Sachs makes a pre-emptive strike at Charles Voegele (Z.CVH), lowering EPS estimates ahead of 1H results. And not just a little: by 41% for 02, and 30% each for 03 and 04. Brokerage says 55% gross margin in 1H is "unsustainable" and an "inventory writedown is a potential risk." Rates shares market underperformer. Little traded shares up 2.2% at CHF33.20. Clothing company reports Aug. 27. (BAK) 1129 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--ABN Amro upgrades Handelsbanken (S.SHB) to add from hold, raises 02 EPS forecast to SEK11.10 vs SEK10.70 after "solid" 2Q report that highlighted better credit quality, higher interest income. Leaves intrinsic value unchanged at SEK160. Biggest relief was that credit quality remained at solid levels with marginal loan losses, reduced lending to telecoms. Adds that focus on tighter cost control has produced results, now expects stable cost situation going forward. Share +4% at SEK131. (RIV) 1126 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Spread implied by the ^KPN#^ (KPN) convertible is too wide when compared to comparable debt instruments trade, says Lehman Brothers. Too much of a discount is being applied for subordinated status of the convertible. Credit spread implied by senior credit default swap market of Libor plus 406bps, is more accurate. Applying this spread gives us an investment value that is higher than the current market price of the bond. (AJM) 1124 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Axa#^ (AXA) is in much better shape than its market valuation might lead one to believe, writes Dow Jones' The Skeptic. Even if it misses its FY target for EUR1.8B in operating profit, it won't be by much; more than EUR1B of that is already in the bank. (EMB) 1122 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--European stocks edge higher midday Wed after positive earnings news from bluechips Axa, Lufthansa and Nestle help buoy market. Traders note limp volumes and say market unlikely to storm ahead as uncertainty over economic outlook should keep a lid on gains. Strategists at CSFB say that while investors will continue to play some attention to valuation levels, these will play second fiddle to the outlook for companies' earnings. Says the days of super-normal returns to value investing are behind us and sees little reason for investors to move their focus away from companies that offer a relatively robust earnings outlook. DJ Stoxx +2.1%, at 225.89.(MMD) 1116 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM-- ^Ericsson#^ (ERICY) continuing higher, +30.8% at SEK7.65. "The rumors are that someone called in their stock loans today," forcing short-sellers to cover their positions by buying shares, says Stockholm-based broker. Subject of rumor is large US institution, but there's no confirmation, he said. Unclear whether gains will last, he says. (LCK) Modificato da - gz on 8/21/2002 14:34:32

^EBiscom#^ forse è salita ieri perchè Cisco System (CSCO) ha invitato Chief Executive Silvio Scaglia a parlare al loro meeting annuale.... Noto i dati sul petrolio che indicano domanda in calo Upgrade di ^ARM Holdings#^ , positivi su ^Accor#^ , hotel Negativi su ^Pinault#^ e ^Alstom#^ Vivendi sostenuta da commenti di UBS Warburg 1252 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^EBiscom#^ (I.EBS) +3.1% at EUR24.60 after Cisco System (CSCO) invited Chief Executive Silvio Scaglia to address the opening of Cisco Global Sales Meeting on the grounds that E.Biscom is the best company of its broadband telecommunications sector. A trader says, "It's a sign of international recognition." Adds, "It's mantaining the targets that it announced when it went public (2 years ago)." A financial daily reported Sun Scaglia saying that Fastweb and its German network, which had 150,000 subscribers at the end of 1H 02, will maintain a growth rate of 15,000 clients a month through 2H 02. (FGB) 1409 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^ARM Holdings#^ (ARMHY) +9.8% at 182.5p. An analyst notes company's annual partner day last week and argues it is an extremely strong player in the semiconductor industry, with diverse end markets. "Any return of optimism benefits ARM and the 2Q results proved its business model is working as new management delivered robust data and results." (NPF) 1346 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Pinault#^-Printemps (F.PPR) -4.2% at EUR68.95. News of Wal-Mart's (WMT) Aug sales prediction being at the low end of a 4% to 6% growth range due to lower sales in both divisions last week seen weighing. (MJK) 1338 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- Arcadia (U.ACA) bid talks are likely to progress further, says Investec Securities. Rates the retailer a strong buy. Philip Green's offer of 365p a share implies perspective P/E of 8.4X, but Investec says fundamentals offer excellent value even at 410p, which would give an exit P/E of 10X. Whilst believes bid could increase to 400p "or beyond", says Green's offers have failed to materialize in the past. Arcadia up 16% at 348.5p. (JFH) 1337 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--WM-data (S.WMD) -0.6% at SEK8.60, down more than 25% since 2Q report last week. "The market is so difficult at the moment that if you can't execute, you're going to be punished severely for it," says Anders Berg at Evli Securities. Cuts rating to sell from reduce, with target of SEK7. Says TietoEnator (Y.TTO) a relative bright spot in sector. (LCK) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Given strengthening conviction that proposal to increase the coupon to remove ^Vivendi Universal#^'s (V) guarantee will not pass tomorrow, credit default swaps in Vivendi Environnement (VE) widened out to around 260bp-310bp, says analyst. Nearly 100bp wider than they were talked about last week. Difficult to tell what price the bonds are trading at, with few bonds actually trading hands before Tue's meeting. (AJM) 1256 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein remains cautious on ^Alstom#^ (ALS) despite the current share price trading below its EUR8.50 share price target. Says stock currently trades at 9.9x EV/EBITDA, in line with the sector despite its additional financial risk and product problems. Maintains reduce recommendation. Shares +2.6% at EUR6.75. (MJK) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--OPEC cuts '02 world oil demand growth forecast by 46.7% "not that surprising," says analyst. Recovery "not here yet." However, market relatively unfazed as world demand of 76.16M bbd remains within 74M-77M bbd range expected. Shell (SC) up 0.6% at 448p, BP (BP) +1.8% at 528.5p. TotalFinaElf (TOT) down 0.7% at EUR147.9. (TRF) 1239 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein expects Vivendi Universal (V) share price to be driven by financial health in coming weeks, with sentiment and rumors around strategy also likely to increase volatility. But Vivendi still owns and operates group of well-performing, valuable assets. Open letter by Fourtou might reassure the market and spark share price rebound, but it's execution that matters. Stock +12% at EUR10.37. (MMR) 1230 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Accor#^ (F.ACC) would boost its share of the German four-star hotel market, should it acquire stake in Germany's Dorint, says CIC Securities analyst Annick Thevenon. Would also complete its product range in Germany, where it has substantial holdings in the economy and 3-star hotels market, she says. Accor not immediately available to comment on reports of potential interest in Dorint. CIC keeps hold rating, EUR45 target. Shares +2.2% at EUR34.10. (VLV) 1221 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--European stocks off highs ahead of Wall St open. Bad news from drug heavyweight AstraZeneca cited as main turning point for equities. JP Morgan technical analyst Nick Glydon says clear head & shoulders now confirmed on FTSE 100, but lack of volume caused by summer holiday adds confusion. Sees S&P500 moving to 950 now it's above 911. Also "definitely" likes oils after breakout by oil price last week. Also don't be short Vodafone, now it's above 101. Targets 115 or maybe even 120. DJ Stoxx 50 +0.7% at 2782.0. (NPB) 1202 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Bilfinger Berger (G.BIL) +13% at EUR22.90, Hochtief (G.HOT) +10% at EUR18.35 as construction sector still benefitting from expectations of incoming orders following heavy flooding in Germany. "Just like after Sep 11 when defense and IT security stocks were in fashion, investors are speculating on what areas of the economy will profit from this catastrophe," trader says. "And just like back then, the bubble will burst and the shares will drop back to previous levels," he says, advising selling.(CHE) Modificato da - gz on 8/20/2002 11:22:57

Delle azioni degli analisti di oggi noto in positivo stamattina: ^Lufthansa#^ che sembra non essere toccata dalla bancarotta della US Airways, ^Sage#^ il titolo high tech inglese di cui ho parlato di recente In negativo non vedo invece niente di importante stamattina (spiace che i pezzi di ieri incluso questa rassegna siano andati persi, si parlava di ^Nobel Biocare#^ in particolare ieri -------------------------------------------------------- 347 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 +3.3% at 4310.2. Market stays firmly in positive territory after sunny start to US trading and US July industrial production number comes in slightly ahead of expectations at +0.2%. "I don't think this number (industrial production) is going to change sentiment in any significant way," says Gerrard's Simon Rubinsohn. Thinks there's still large degree of uncertainty out there and markets were due for a technical rebound. (TRF) 1342 GMT (Dow Jones) DUBLIN--Waterford Wedgwood (WATFZ) -3.5% at EUR0.55 after Federated Department Stores, Waterford's major U.S. customer, reduced same-store sales forecasts for 2H to between -1% to -3%. This, coupled with recent gloomy U.S. economic data, suggests the bias of risk for Waterford's forecasts is on the downside, says Merrion Stockbrokers: "This lessens our confidence in the apparent value opportunity offered in the shares." (QAF) 1336 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Getronics#^ CEO and CFO let off steam at Thu's press conference, writes Dow Jones' The Skeptic. They blamed the press, analysts, hedge funds, and investors - everyone except themselves - for the drop in the company's share price. Not exactly soothing stuff. (EMB) 1326 GMT (Dow Jones) BUDAPEST--Erste maintains Synergon (R.SGN) underperform rating after 2Q results on doubts about its outlook and a sluggish IT market. Doubts company's double-digit '02 sales growth forecast and target for a pft this year. Sees '02 loss per share at HUF24.9 and an EPS of HUF15.5 for '03. Adds that expansion abroad would be a positive. Synergon -2.3% at HUF565. (MAF) 1323 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) +9.6% to 125.5p following Intuit's (INTU) 4Q results which reaffirm Sage's comments on entry level products, says CSFB. Says Intuit's success with its Quickbooks software is consistent with Sage's arguments that entry-level is better than mid-market in the US. Recommends picking up the stock at these levels. (NPF) 1321 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- ^Lufthansa#^ (G.LHA) +1.7% at EUR12.30, unruffled by UAL Corp (UAL) United Airlines statement late Wed it might file for bankruptcy. According to WestLB's Gert Zonnefeld, European market very different that US market, with US airlines suffering declining volumes and yields, while European peers have managed to increase yields in recent months. Rates Lufthansa as a buy. (RZG) 1319 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Sarasin analysts see Bachem (Z.BCM) posting an 11% increase in 1H net sales to CHF72.8M on an 13.9% increase in EBIT to CHF24.7M when it reports Aug 23. Pretax profit seen -3.3% at CHF22.5M. Aside from that, eyes on financial income since recent turbulence on markets is likely to have had negative influence on company's equity holdings. Bachem doesn't publish an after-tax, net income figure at 1H. Shares +2.4% at CHF79.85. (CCS) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- Altana (G.ALT) technicals look bearish. Despite entrance into DAX, more negative potential expected after stock bounces off 200 day moving average at EUR56. Downward trend from high in Apr is further intact, in contrast to short-term upwards trend from Jul low. "Another return to year low at EUR41.55 or the supports from '00, '01 around EUR40 must be viewed as likely," says MM Warburg technical analyst. Stock +2.4% at EUR52.20.(CHE) 1308 GMT (Dow Jones) COPENHAGEN--Lundbeck (K.LUN) +7.5% at DKK180 on FDA approval of Lexapro, known in Europe as Cipralex. Resistance seen around DKK185. Trader says he expects Lundbeck to hold onto gains after recent losses pushed shares down to year lows. (FRS) 1305 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers cuts Eniro target to SEK85 to reflect lower organic growth but reiterates overweight. Lehman finds Eniro's 32% drop in share price Wed hard to justify given its performance, solidity of business. Flat organic growth in Sweden is pressuring Eniro to complete integration of bought assets to deliver future top line growth. Share +6.7% at SEK44.80. (CHP) 1222 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Vivendi Universal (V) is to sell Houghton Mifflin because it is one of the few assets on which it can make a capital gain, analysts say. Disposal could be seen as first step toward renewed focus on Europe, but "it is probably more correct to see it as one of the group's few large assets liable to interest numerous potential buyers and on which a capital gain could be made," CIC Securities notes. ING expects disposal price of over EUR2.1B. CIC sees price at EUR2.5B. Vivendi bought publisher for $1.7B excluding debt in 01. Shares -19% at EUR9.68. (VLV) 1221 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades ^Eidos#^ (EIDSY) to buy from hold with a 169p target. Says FY 03 is a pivotal year with new generation consoles and line-up of 'pre-sold' titles providing near-term upside - with year shaped by 5 key title release, with Tomb Raider: Angel of Darkness providing greatest upside potential. Trades +8.1% at 104p. (NPF) Modificato da - gz on 8/16/2002 9:33:31

Morgan Stanley su Pirelli Real Estate e DRKW positivo su ^Serono#^ --------------------------------------------------------- 1053 GMT (Dow Jones)MILAN--Morgan Stanley starts Pirelli Real Estate (I.PRE) at overweight with a EUR29 target, says company has "a novel business model that we think is well tailored to extracting high returns on capital from real estate". Adds, Italian property market "is currently one of the most attractive" in Europe. Stock +0.4% at EUR23.6. (LZP) 219 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein likes Serono's (SRA) recent drug deal with Genentech (DNA). "This is (the) first instance of Serono in-licensing an advanced product and we welcome the move," bank says. Adds move will leverage company's infrastructure in Europe and could be complimentary to one of company's own phase II drugs. Still, bank keeps hold rating. "While this deal is strategically good, it's unlikely to impact earnings until '05. Shares +6.6% at CHF790. (CCS) 0953 GMT (Dow Jones) VIENNA--OMV's (R.OMV) 1H earnings come in slightly above the consensus estimates. While earnings trend was still working against OMV, Alfred Reisenberger, analyst at Bank Austria, is convinced that the worst is most probably over. "However there is still uncertainty ahead and therefore we will keep the recommendation at hold, even if the stock is undervalued compared to its peers," he says. Shares +0.6% at EUR87.15. (KOM) 0943 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Aurel Leven likes Steria's (F.STR) 1H revenue data that was better than expected and encourages it to raise FY 02 revenue target to EUR1.03B from EUR998M. Keeps buy. Steria near day's high +5.7% at EUR12.30. (DGP) 0942 GMT (Dow Jones) BERLIN--RTL Group's (L.RTL) buy of a 47.3% stake in German news station n-tv is good for both companies, says DZ Bank's Isabel Geigenberger. Gives RTL a foothold in the important news programming market in Germany. The deal will also help n-tv with synergies andgives it a strong partner, she adds. RTL in Brussels -1.7% to EUR29.60. (CHR) 0940 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Nomura says UBS (Z.UBS) has a very solid set of numbers, perhaps appearing better at first glance than they actually are. A disappointing aspect is, apart from softer revenues, the fact that net new money flows in private client units collapsed to CHF4.9B from 1Q's CHF10B. However, market share in US investment banking up to 3.7% from 3.4% in '01. Nomura keeps buy as UBS shows revenue resilience and cost flexibility. Shares +2.9% at CHF67.20. (CHP) 0937 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--There doesn't appear to be anything sinister behind Matalan (U.MAN) Finance Director Ian Smith's departure, announced Tue, says Numis. His replacement Phil Dutton - from Asda (WMT) - suggests CEO Paul Mason, himself formerly at Asda, is "slowly surrounding himself with his own people". Numis remain sellers of stock as feel nervous of conditions at value end of market. Shares -0.4% to 236p. (JFH) 0917 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Merrill Lynch downgrades '03 EPS estimate 18% to 15.4p on sluggish recovery outlook on view that cyclical recovery in underlying markets may take longer than thought. Sees no appreciable recovery in 2H '02, implying 10% downgrade to earnings forecast to 13.7p. However, says shares already below 150p NAV, suggesting little further downside. Bodycote shares up 1.2% at 123.5p. Rated intermediate-term buy, long-term neutral. (HET) 0917 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Hedge funds trying to squeeze as much as possible out of Vivendi Environnement (VE) over negotiations about Vivendi Universal's (V) guarantee on its convertibles, says hedge fund manager. "Vivendi Environnement are offering a fair conclusion, 50% more on the coupon is very reasonable. But they need us to get rid of the clause and hedge funds know that. Still Vivendi Environnement have been careless in saying it would only expect proxy votes for yes decisions. It doesn't help your corner to be seen pushing it through." (AJM) 0911 GMT (Dow Jones) BERLIN--CSFB cuts target on Siemens (SI) to EUR56 from EUR65, after lowering 03 EPS 11% to EUR3.19 reflecting poor end-market outlook. CSFB raises 02 EPS 4% to EUR2.77. Says Siemens is the most solid company in the engineering sector, but end markets weak. CSFB has hold on Siemens. Would get more interested if Siemens falls to low-40s. Shares -2.2% to EUR45.62. 6 ago - Dopo quasi 2 anni Lehman Brothers decide di ridurre la posizione di overweight sui titoli ciclici e di aumentare l'esposizione raccomandata sui comparti tecnologico, finanziario e farmaceutico, che appaiono al broker meglio posizionati per beneficiare dell'atteso rimbalzo delle borse mondiali. Segni di rallentamento nella ripresa congiunturale sono il motivo principale che spinge il broker a tagliare a Neutral il giudizio sui ciclici, pur in presenza di multipli ritenuti ancora interessanti. Ma il crollo dei mercati azionari sta facendo emergere migliori opportunita' d'investimento in altri settore particolarmente sacrificati dalle recenti ondate di vendite. Lehman stima che le banche europee siano trattate ad appena 1,6 volte il loro valore contabile, e le assicurazioni a 1,5 volte, livelli che rendono quanto mai appetibili questi titoli. Simile il ragionamento per tecnologici e farmaceutici, comparti la cui fase di declino dovrebbe essere al termine, per lasciare spazio a una performance superiore alla media nel momento in cui i mercati torneranno a salire. A livello di singoli titoli, Lehman inserisce nel Global Recommended Portfolio Telecom Italia, ARM, Aventis, Banco Popular, GlaxoSmithKline, Micron Technology e UBS. Rimuove invece 3M Co., ABN Amro, Advance Info Service, Bayer, Cathay Pacific, Home Depot, Host Marriott, Logica, Singapore Press Holdings, Stora Enso, BSCH e Telefonica.

le uniche cose da notare sono altri guai di ^Vivendi#^ che si riflettono su tutti i media per "analogia" e forse la chiamata positiva su ^Sage#^ ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1132 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--WestLB Panmure's Robin Campbell still keen on Powderject (U.PJP) despite withdrawal of tuberculosis vaccine from sale. Campbell says optimistic for flu vaccine sales in 02-03 flu season, and Powderject still making effective transition from loss-making to significant profits. Keeps at buy with GBP10 target. Shares -22% at 330p. (SLR) 1132 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Dealer at foreign bank in Zurich reports rivals actively recruiting experienced equities traders, weeding out those with less experience. Reasoning is that more experienced traders are better at selling in tough Swiss market, whose volumes are half of last year. But dealer expects local demand for brokers to dry up in a year or so. For now, Deutsche Bank's cited as aggressive recruiter after losing Swiss equities team to a rival. (BAK) 1114 GMT (Dow Jones) DUBLIN--Independent News & Media (U.INW) -4.9% at EUR1.55 despite news that 1H '02 advertising revenue +12% for the Irish print media. Merrion Stockbrokers continues to have "stock specific concerns regarding INW's balance sheet constraints" and debt levels, which will continue to hamper the company even with a global upturn in advertising markets. (QAF) 1110 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dexia (B.DEX) slides on profit taking after rapid rise last week, says London-based analyst. Some hedge funds jumped on the opportunity and took profits," he says. Dexia third-biggest decliner in CAC-40, -4.1% at EUR13.26. (CMW) 1108 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Despite news of cost cuts and interest in the fund arm Teather & Greenwood falls 1 p to 34p on subdued outlook. "It faces the problem of all small broking houses, to cut costs in step with declining market levels," says one fund manager. Thinks firm looks cheap at current levels. "It is good firm, good analysts and good ideas, but its not easy for them given the state of the market."(AJM) 1056 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--M.M. Warburg to put ^RWE#^ (G.RWE) profit estimates under review following worse-than-expected 1H operating profits. Says RWE's acquisition of Transgas and Innogy will increase company's interest expenses and weigh on the company's earnings. Target price EUR36.45, current EPS forecast EUR2.24. Shares -2.1% to EUR35.67. (RGL) 1055 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Even a goodwill write-down of EUR4B-EUR5B at Vivendi Universal (V) won't come as a great surprise because company is obliged to make quarterly goodwill adjustments and valuations of Seagram and Canal Plus have dropped quite a lot, says Williams de Broe analyst. Says new chief executive Jean-Rene Fourtou knows expectations for ^Vivendi#^ are low so won't be afraid of big writedown: "He'd want to clear the cupboard and go for the top end because he knows he's not responsible for the mistakes of the past." (SAL) 1054 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) has underperformed FTSE-100 by 30% over past two months. CSFB argues it is trading at the bottom if its historic range and top-line growth rate isn't dependent on macro recovery. Notes 50% of sales are recurring. Says even without opportunity offered by Interact, Sage has strong visible and recurring cash flows as well as solid medium term growth potential. Rates at buy with 180p target. Trades -0.8% at 123p. (NPF) (An item published at 0852 GMT misstated the target price due to an error at source.) 1052 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Reports of 5 UK biotechs in talks to form cancer company together. Would be good move, says Navid Malik at Williams de Broe. Together might be able to make US acquisitions. Plus, follows on heels of tie-up between leading UK cancer charities and research bodies in form of Cancer Research UK. Xenova (XNVA), Antisoma (U.ASM), British Biotech (BBIOY), KS Biomedix (U.KSB), Oxford GlycoSciences (OGSI). All unavailable for comment. (SLR) 1047 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Goldman Sachs downgrades HeidelbergCement AG (G.HEI) to market performer from market outperformer. Says is concerned about company's ability to generate enough cash flow to meet debt reduction targets. Target price EUR40.80. Shares -4.1% to EUR39.15. (RGL) 1045 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Fallout from Aug 14? UBS Warburg warns any bad news as company executives attest to their financial results may dampen investor appetite for US corporate bond markets. This, the it suggests, could well "return the dollar to its medium-term bearish trend" as the market once again worries about how the US current account will be funded. (NEH) 1045 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Risks to oil sector earnings are increasing, but not through a lower oil price outlook, says J.P. Morgan. Cites three areas of concern: weak outlook for U.S. gas prices and petchem margins as U.S. economic growth expectations are reined in, recent disappointing results from Asian refining and marketing businesses and a generic fear of Middle East risk. Sees '03 earnings of Repsol (E.REP) possibly down as much as 11%, with ExxonMobil (XOM) and ChevronTexaco (CVX) falling 10% and BP (BP) sinking 9.7%. (MCW) Modificato da - gz on 8/12/2002 16:40:58

Noto questo strong buy su uno dei titoli israeliani di punta Elbit Systems (ESLT)(come ovvio i titoli israeliani tecnologici quotati al Nasdaq sono stati distrutti anche più della media) e uno strong buy di Merril Lynch su ^Philips#^ (spiace per la formattazione, ma manca il personale in vacanza) --------------------------------------- 346 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--CSFB raises Elbit Systems (ESLT) to a strong buy from buy following strong 2Q results and management guidance. Raises '02 EPS forecast to $1.27 from $1.17 (excluding one-time 2Q charge) and '03 EPS to $1.44 from $1.17. Encouraged by strong $52M in operating cash flow in 2Q and trend of rising gross margins. Says defense electronics business is robust while orders backlog supports growth over next two years. At $16.07 Wed Nasdaq close, shares are trading at 10.7x projected '03 EPS, a 30-40% discount to peers. (DAR) 0808 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Delay to Vodafone's (VOD) rollout of 3G mobile would be "highly predictable," improve near-term cash generation, says Bear Stearns. Vodafone has stated 3G capex in FY '03 will be GBP1.8B but GBP1B could be deferred, which could mean cash generation in FY '03 will be GBP3.5B or more. ^Vodafone#^ says Fri's report that no commercial launch of 3G in Europe in '02 is in line with previous statements. Vodafone down 0.3% at 96.25p after higher start. (GRE) 1343 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Vinci (F.VIN) convertible bonds have cheapened recently, says ABN Amro. Adds Vinci '07 and '18 trade wider than longer-dated straight debt and CDS on fair volatility assumptions. Could proved attractive opportunities for fixed income investors looking for yield enhancement and potential equity related upside. (AJM) 1339 GMT (Dow Jones) PRAGUE--Cesky Telecom +1% or CZK2.7 to CZK272 after government agrees to sell 51% stake to Deutsche Bank and TDC for EUR1.82B. But trading volumes very thin and traders see investors afraid to test the water until more details of the contract and strategic plan are revealed in coming weeks. (DL) 1339 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--AXA (AXA) bonds are about 5bp better bid after 1H results came in as expected. AXA's 6% '13 bond was last seen at govt +150bp. Generally better tone to sector, but flows still subdued, dealers say. (NMK) 1318 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Merrill Lynch upgrades ^Philips#^ (PHG) to strong buy from buy. Says despite share's fall it has a number of high quality, cash-generative, stable businesses. Earnings weigh but Merrill says this is priced in. Sees combined value of the stable businesses and stakes portfolio to be worth more than the entire enterprise value of company. So at current share price, EUR21.06, +2.7%, effectively get the economically sensitive ones - semicons, consumer elecs, components - for free. Lowers 12Mo target to EUR31 from EUR33, leaving more than 60% upside. (CHP) 1310 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades Bouygues (F.BOU) to hold from reduce, following solid 1H revenue and stable average revenue per user at mobile unit Bouygues Telecom. "Although the conglomerate structure is unchanged, the valuation is now more compelling." Gives share price target of EUR24, based on sum of the parts. Shares +4.8% at EUR23.05. (VLV) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Zuercher Kantonalbank likes Serono's (SRA) drug deal with Genentech (DNA) because Swiss company's own pipeline doesn't look set to deliver any new drugs to market before '06. Still, Raptiva, formerly known as Xanelim, has been delayed a number of times because of production problems. Roche (RHHBY) also passed on chance to in-license the drug. Serono shares +4.5% at CHF774. (CCS) 1253 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--FTSE 100 steady to slightly lower after US PPI, jobless data beats expectations. FTSE +2.3% at 4188.4. Numbers should build on currently improving sentiment, say traders. However, if lower PPI is converted into lower consumer prices, it'll raise deflationary concerns further. Another group of traders looks for break above 4200 before turning more optimistic on equities. (HGT) 1254 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN--Mediaset's (I.MEI) plan to list Telecinco by '07 and option to add 10% to its 40% stake in the Spanish broadcaster is "strategically defensive and the minimum acquisition price appears reasonable," says DrKW. Favors near-term switch to Mediaset from TF1, Prosieben. Keeps at hold with EUR8.5 target. Shares +2.6% to EUR6.77. (BJL) 1252 GMT (Dow Jones) BRUSSELS--Barco (B.BAE) +8.5% to EUR44.50 on news that it has bought two virtual reality companies - Germany's TAN Projektionstechnologie and Switzerland's TAN. It has 98% share of the German market, and 65% of the global market. "There are good opportunities for synergies with Barco's projection business," says Gert de Mesure, an analyst at Delta Lloyd. He sees growth opportunities in Asia and North America. Analysts are frustrated at lack of financial details on the deal. But remain confident that Barco didn't over pay. Barco is due to release 2Q results on Aug 28. "We think Barco will make its targets," says Mesure. (VEK) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Axa +2.1% at EUR12.40, but gives up some early gains after insurer posts 4.8% rise in 1H revenue but fails to enlighten market on size of provisions it needs to cover asset depreciation. Wargny analyst says volatility suggests market is hitting at shadows, notes that shares are still trading below net asset value. (DGP) 1248 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers lowers FKI to underweight from buy on previous rating system. Sees weakening earnings momentum for next 12Mos-18Mos and its valuation being at a premium to peers. Sees little catalyst for a rebound. Lehman lowers '03 pretax profit by 21% to GBP81M, '04 by 27% to GBP99M. Expects FKI to report recurring EPS of 10p in 03, 11.8p in 04. Shares +1.1% at 112.25p, underperforming FTSE 100, +2.5% at 4197.1. (CHP) Modificato da - gz on 8/9/2002 10:56:16

Di tutto quello che passa per i terminali oggi vedo qui i rumor su chi compri Fiat ai blocchi, un paio di upgrade di titoli svedesi industriali come Electrolux e SAS e uno olandese, un upgrade o due di Vivendi environment insomma il tono non è malissimo 0803 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Liquidity crunch remains ^Vivendi Universal#^'s (V) most pressing problem, with all current talk about asset sales reflecting lack of "preconceived ideas" new management has on how to restructure business, says S&P analyst Guy Deslondes. No surprise that Vivendi Universal and its banks taking time to come up with new credit facility given need to rework terms of existing credit lines, but company still needs "several billion euros" in extra credit by Oct. Shares +4.3% at EUR15.71. (MJC) 8 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^Fiat#^ (FIA) +3.4% to EUR10.22 on average volume of 1.5B shares traded amid speculation concerning who's been buying shares in blocks. Three traders say it boils down to this: Either Fiat holders - possibly IFI (I.IFI), IFIL (I.IFL), Deutsche Bank (DB), or Lafico - sold in the downturn and are now recovering at historic lows, or somebody is staging a takeover bid. While they say at these prices Fiat is certainly a target, all three agree the former is more likely. (BJL) 1344 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--SAS (S.SAI) +13% at SEK70 after cost cuts and 2Q pretax profit by far beat analysts' estimates. SAS 1H savings reach SEK2.350B. "This looks very good and increases the confidence in SAS' ability to live up to its (earnings) forecast," says analyst who'd predicted cost cuts of around SEK800M. SAS now sees FY pre-tax profit after previously expecting a loss. 2Q pretax shot up to SEK1.039B vs SEK180B. Consensus was for SEK363M. There were No exceptionals in 2Q. (MAK) 1338 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--ING Financial Markets ups Randstad (N.RDN) to hold from sell after 2Q earnings exceeded expectations, reflecting management regaining control, implying Randstad's loss of market share should be over now. Notes at '03 EV/EBITDA estimate of 5.8x, company seems to be undervalued but adds that a double dip in the business cycle is a certain risk. Shares +3% at EUR9.07. (MFV) 1335 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Although Iberdrola (E.IBR)/Repsol (REP) exchangeable bond has cheapened and offers reasonably good value it will suffer from a lack of obvious buyers given current low stock sensitivity and CDS levels, says ABN Amro. Sees implied bond value at 97.01%, implied delta 12.7%, implied credit spread 130bps over swaps. However, it "falls between two stools, with too much option value to make sense as pure fixed income play and lack of competitive CDS offers making it too expensive as low delta arbitrage play." (AJM) 1333 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Sarasin forecasts Disetronic (Z.DIH) to report Wed 1Q sales rise of 11% to CHF82.8 million after adjusting for divestment of Pharmaceutical Packaging Systems. Doesn't expect negative surprises but remains cautious on significant recovery of largest division, Infusion Systems. Says figures will be key since they should point toward timid recovery of US demand for insulin pump therapy. (ALI) 1314 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--WestLB upgrades Standard Chartered (U.STA) to buy from neutral. Cites "very strong set of numbers" Wed, driven by 6% increase in revenue, 2% fall in costs. "Standard Chartered has the strongest long-term growth profile of any UK bank," WestLB says. Target price of 914.9p likely to fall owing to unfriendly forex moves, it adds. Stock still FTSE 100's biggest gainer Wed, +8.9% at 663p. (JMG) 1313 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS-- ^Vivendi#^ Universal (V) +5.4% at EUR16.29. Rebound probably more linked to short-covering than news reports that it may sell its videogames arm, says London-based analyst. "The little bit of positive newsflow was an excuse to cover the shorts," he says. Questions EUR2B price tag for videogames business. Calls stock undervalued. (CMW) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Lehman Brothers reiterates Outperform rating on Vivendi Environnement (VE) on company's fundamentals in wake of capital increase, rights issue. Notes "impressive growth" in US water operations. Sees '03 debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.3x, gearing at 149% including Southern Water. Says stock trades at discount of 15% to issue price, 53% to EUR34.50 target; +0.7% at EUR24.36. (CMW) 1259 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--Analyst estimates ^Philips#^' (PHG) sale of CSI operations to Bosch (G.BSH) at around EUR150M to EUR200M. "For these kinds of activities, you can expect a sale price of around half of total sales to slightly more," analyst says. Likely Philips makes small profit on sale. Shares +6.4% at EUR21.39. (PNM) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Sage#^ Group (U.SGE) looks to be the last tech stock to leave the FTSE-100 - "Please turn off the lights..." says CAI Cheuvreux analyst Graham Brown who predicts "technical savaging of the share price," if it drops. Brown says stock seems expensive as markets are under pressure and competition is likely to intensify. Sees fair value at 138p with a trading range between 116p and 173p. Rates at underperform. Trades -1.5% at 121p. (NPF) 1247 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--European carmakers' association ACEA officially cuts forecast for 02 car sales, now sees -5%, previously had seen 3%-4% sales drop. "It's something the market is expecting," says an analyst at a big German bank, as some executives predicted similar recently. Says lower forecast should be priced in. All European autos now higher except Peugeot (F.PEU) after UBSW, Lehman downgrades. (BGD) 1245 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Lehman Brothers sees Electrolux (ELUX) continuing to reduce its cost base, improve operational efficiency. Also sees margin recovery with increasing focus on price/mix. Says there is considerable scope for revaluation. Sees faster pace of acquisitions, step-up in demand and share buybacks. Share is trading on trough multiples with a 5%-50% discount to peers. Lehman is overweight with SEK154 target. Share +4.5% at SEK163.50. (CHP) Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 10:7:21

Di tutto quello che passa per i terminali oggi vedo che qui per CSFB le azioni Europee sono poco care usando 3 misure di valuatazioni e le americane sono neutrali e leggermente sottovalutate. Le azioni inglesi costano al momento 14 volte gli utili. La media del secolo è sui 13 volte gli utili con dei minimi a 7 e dei massimi a 30 volte gli utili. "...Europe equity risk premium 4.3% vs average 3.7%, US 4.2% vs 3.4% average. US trades on 17x estimated '02 trend earns, Europe on 15x, UK on 14x. CSFB expect "capitulation rally" from low on S&P 500 of 20-25% to 930-970, "at which point we would probably downgrade equities to at least neutral." S&P closed at 859.57. (HGT) 1355 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^AngloAmerican#^ (AAUK) +8.9% at 760p after saying leaked South African minerals bill proposing new mine ownership rules "not official", not reflective of govt. policy. UBS Warburg's Peter Hickson says issue has "blown up at a time when the market is highly sensitive to risk". Reckons worse case scenario has been factored into stock price, current level represents good buying opportunity. Has buy rating. (TRF) 1350 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--Lehman Brothers says ^Orange#^ (F.ORA) request for relaxation of 3G terms in Sweden supports its view that 3G spending by both new entrants and incumbents likely to be cautious. Says request, if granted, would be blow to Orange Sverige supplier Alcatel (ALA), hitting revenue and robbing it of chance to demonstrate the capabilities of its equipment. (LCK) 1344 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Astrazeneca (AZN) -7.8% at 2152p after saying delay in submitting Crestor drug to FDA, pushes back timeframe for launch. Nomura Securities says delay knocks off 5-6% off DCF valuation. Has long term buy rating due to belief drugs such as Iressa will add to profit growth. (TRF) 1332 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--ING Financial Markets ups TPG (TP) to buy from hold saying TPG is a well-managed company and is in a position to grow despite economic turmoil. Notes 2Q earnings were in line, but underlying figures were strong led by recovery in express division. Ups target to EUR26 from EUR22. Shares +3.9% at EUR17.76. (MFV) 1328 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--Merrill Lynch lowers earnings outlook and rating for Orbotech (ORBK) to reflect weakness in the printed circuit board (PCB) market and potential delays in rollouts in flat-panel display rollout. Downgrades '02 to loss of 8c/share from profit of 26c and lowers '03 profit to 65c from $1.19. Says stock unlikely to rise above $20 intermediate term, cuts to neutral from buy. Closed on Nasdaq at $17.74, bid at $17.51 so far. (DAR) 1323 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^AstraZeneca#^ (AZN) -7.4% at 2162p. Says needs to submit more data to US regulators before cholesterol drug Crestor will be approved. Data due to be submitted to FDA during 1Q '03. This means earliest likely to launch is 2H '03, a year later than scheduled, says Navid Malik at Williams de Broe. "It's bad news with a capital B and a capital N." (SLR) 1306 GMT (Dow Jones) MADRID--Fitch Ratings' downgrade of Sol Melia (E.SIA) following its disappointing 1H earnings seen pushing share price lower. "The earnings were already bad ... a ratings downgrade like this doesn't help," says one trader, adding that there is room for further falls later in session. Shares -4.4% at EUR5.03. (AGL) 1303 GMT (Dow Jones) JERUSALEM--Koor Industries (KOR) -4% at ILS108.70. Haim Israel of Nessuah Zannex Securities says drop is a belated response to concerns over South American exposure of Koor's Makhteshim Again Industries' (C.MHA) unit. Makhteshim, which was -7.7% last week, extends falls -2.6%. Israel says Koor drop unrelated to publication Wed of 2Q results for its other major unit, ECI Telecom (ECIL). (DAR) 1301 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--WestLB says fundamental situation for chip stocks like ^Infineon#^ (IFX) has improved clearly since Sep '01 although SOXX index fell 20% over this time period. "Chip stocks are being driven by sentiment and not fundamental data," the analyst says. Keeps Infineon, STMicroelectronics (STM) at outperform. Infineon +3.1% at EUR12.08. STMicro +4.2% at EUR18.97. (CHE) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--?^Commerzbank#^ (G.CBK) +3.6% at EUR10.25. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says leaked 2Q figures look plausible. "If the above numbers were substantiated, we think it would be very difficult for the bank to reach management's forecast for 2002 of EUR700-800M pretax," writes bank. Should leak be correct, bank will downgrade its pretax forecast of EUR495M, as well as EUR13 target. Rates at reduce. (CHE) 1251 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN-- ^Unicredito#^ (I.UCI) investors need not worry much about the EUR29.8M 2Q loss at Polish unit Banka Pekao, as debt provisions at Pekao were cautious and top-line showed growth, says analyst Gerard Rizk of Nomura. Keeps at hold with fair value EUR5.1. "It won't prevent Unicredito from recording positive earnings growth," as Pekao accounts for only 7% of consolidated earnings. But notes "if you're on the cautious side you'd revise down slightly." Unicredito forecasts high single-digit FY growth. Shares -1% at EUR3.56. (BJL) 1249 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT-- ^Qiagen#^ (QGENF) -4.8% at EUR6.12 following 2Q figures. ABN Amro says earnings were in line. Warns though that "Qiagen may be losing market share to Amersham's Templiphi kit in DNA template preparation." Qiagen world leader in production of DNA purification kits.(CHE) Edited by - gz on 8/7/2002 11:14:22