Analisti Europei di Oggi - gz

Buone notizie soprattutto riguardo ad ^Aegon#^, la mega assicurazione olandese, che vende il 25% delle azioni sul mercato per diventare libero dal controllo del gruppo che ne aveva il 51%. Arrivano diversi upgrade. Un esempio per l'Italia, basta pensare a ^Generali#^ Anche Givaudan, il gruppo svizzero ha un bel buyback. Breakingviews ha un giudizio positivo sulla situazione in Irak (nota che si è ricreata la coalizione del 1991). Telefonica positiva ------------------------------------------------------- ZURICH--Swiss Life's (Z.RNT) still too risky, says Pictet a day before troubled insurer reports 1H results. Bank predicts net loss of CHF231M, excluding any goodwill writedowns. Pictet wants to hear how company will use proceeds from capital increase. "We would continue to avoid the shares." They're now up 3.9% at CHF166.25. (BAK) LONDON--Unattractive media sub-sectors for Merrill Lynch are; Music, negative growth with limited consolidation and cash generation; Financial Information, rising price pressure and competition in a moribund market, limited cash generation; Consumer Books, solid but unexciting. (CHP) LONDON--Particularly attractive media sub-sectors for Merrill Lynch are; Radio, attractive on most criteria but risky if an economic downturn, for the bulls; Market Research, solid secular growth, reasonable cash generation, evergreen growth; Below the Line, growing at expense of traditional advertising, mixed cyclical and growth; Directories, solid and cash generative in uncertain times, the Steady Eddies. (CHP) LONDON--WestLB Panmure cuts Axon Group (U.AXO) to outperform from buy and sees target price at 85p after poor 1H results suggest the recovery won't be seen until '03 and a lack of positive near-term share catalysts. Cuts forecasts on the back of the results. Trades flat at 65p. (NPF) LISBON--SCH predicts ^SAG#^ SGPS (E.SAU) will post 12% drop in net profit to EUR9.2M, 5% rise in sales to EUR246M for 2Q '02. Sees sales +22% in 2Q from 1Q on increase in volume sales and distribution business. Eyes on interim dividend, expects EUR0.056 per share, a yield of 3.2%, to be paid in mid-Oct. Results due Wed. Shares +0.6% at EUR1.76. (NSR) LONDON--Breakingviews, the online commentary service, says: "Technicality blights ^France#^ Telecom (FTE) rights plan. It is doubtful that the group can sell equity at less than the E4 nominal value of its shares. That mucks up the maths of a rights issue and scares off underwriters." (MMD) LONDON--Breakingviews, the online commentary service, says: "Iraqi move good for markets. The risk of war has reduced even if it has not vanished. Moreover, any war that does erupt is likely to have broad international backing. That cuts the risk faced by investors. (MMD) LONDON--Breakingviews, the online commentary service, says: ^Tesco#^ (U.TSC) performs in tougher climate. The UK retailer's sales grew by 11% while earnings rose 15%. But how long can Tesco continue to deliver? The UK is slowing down and risks remain regarding its emerging markets business.(MMD) LISBON--SCH sees Ibersol (E.IBS) posting 1H '02 net profit of EUR1.36M, -9%, while sales seen +21% at EUR53.5M. Says sales boosted by full consolidation of Pizzamovil. Expects decreasing net financial debt on delayed investments and stronger revenue growth in 3Q on improving performance of outlets opened in '01. Results due between Sep 18-25. Shares unchanged at EUR2.90.(NSR) LONDON--Goldman Sachs upgrades ^Aegon#^ (AEG) to market outperformer from market performer following restructuring announcement. Also raises '02 and '03 EPS estimates by 2% and 4% to reflect reduced interest charges. Says restructuring strengthens Aegon's capital base and increases flexibility, removes overhang issue on stock and leaves it trading on attractive fundamental valuation. Shares -1.7% at EUR10.81.(NPB) ZURICH-- Givaudan 's (Z.GIV) share buyback plan will reduce the risk it might make an acquisition, Zuercher Kantonalbank says. Bank has stock on overweight, expecting shares to outperform the stock market as a whole. Shares +2.7% at CHF681. (BAK) MADRID--^Telefonica#^ (TEF) up sharply in liquid trade, as it attempts to take out psychological, technical resistance at EUR9. "Telefonica has been underperforming lately so I'm not surprised to see a lot of people coming in around EUR9," says trader. Over 15M shares traded, "on track to do a good day's volume," surely exceeding 24M traded Mon. Shares +3.8% at EUR8.98. Modificato da - gz on 9/17/2002 15:24:30

Cosa notare qui ? Che tra i titoli che raccolgono più consenso in termini di raccomandazioni c'é Finmeccanica nonostante sia uno dei peggiori del mib30 e che tra quelli più disprezzati tuttora Pirelli mentre Tim e Telecom sono ancora tra i più lodati

Il flusso di notizie da parte degli analisti non è affatto buono oggi, con l'eccezione di Nokia e Vivendi, si vedono downgrade e sell: JP Morgan taglia ^Telecom Italia#^ a Underperform che è come dire Sell e mette 8.80 target Merril Lynch di discosta dagli altri ed è scettica sui ricavi di ^Nokia#^ (che altri vedono in crescita) Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein negativa su ^ABB#^ per via del debito Sempre DKW dice che ^Vivendi#^ può beneficiare della vendita del business media e ottenere cassa Se Stoiber vince venderà quote di ^Deutsche Telekom#^ e questo pesa sul titolo CSFB parla bene dei titoli legati al carbone e dice che c'è un minimo ciclico per il settore, attribuisce il rimbalzo dell'oro agli shorts -------------------------------------------------------- MILAN--JP Morgan cuts Telecom Italia (TI) ordinary shares to market underperform vs market perform and saving shares to market perform vs overperform on "the prospect of increasing uncertainty and risk over ownership simplfication." Notes, "there is no simple and obvious route to simplify the TI ownership chain" of interlocking holdings. It also cuts target to EUR8.80 from EUR9.20 for ordinary shares and to EUR6.60 from EUR6.90 for saving shares. Finally, it "modestly reduced" 02-05 forecasts after fair value estimates and forecast changes at TIM (I.TIM) LONDON-- ^ABB#^'s (ABB) credit rating is "significantly too high", even if it's downgraded by one notch to A-, DrKW's Rik Fennema says. Market reaction to ratings cut should be limited, as market's been pricing ABB as sub-investment grade for a while, Fennema says.(NMK) LONDON-- ^Vivendi#^ Universal Publishing is valued at about EUR5.8B-EUR6.0B, says Hank Forsyth of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. If Vivendi Universal can get that price for all its publishing assets, it would be a good deal, alleviating its immediate cash problems, he adds. "The most important is to alleviate the funding worries and focus on the cash-generative businesses." Vivendi Universal +0.9% at EUR13.33. (SAL) FRANKFURT--DaimlerChrysler's (DCX) expected bundling of truck operations with Mitsubishi Motors (J.MOT) and possibly Hyundai (Q.HMC) makes sense, could boost synergies, says MM Warburg on recent press reports. However, says it's too early to determine the impact on Daimler's financial outlook. Rates Daimler buy with EUR62 target. Shares -1.8% at EUR41.30. (BGD) MADRID--Caja Madrid keeps ^Altadis#^ (E.ATD) at sell, despite company's 1H earnings being slightly above CM's forecasts. Keeps target of EUR22.76. Says stock supported by 150,000 distribution points in Spain, France and Portugal, but that the privatization of Italy's ETI - expected within next 3 months - could affect sector prices. Shares -1.9% at EUR23.78. (RSD) FRANKFURT--Deutsche Telekom (DT) -3.3% at EUR10.35. Shares down after conservative party's shadow labor and economics minister says he will focus more heavily on selling off state's DT stake, should CDU form new government after Sep 22 elections. "That was key," says trader. Other state-owned company Deutsche Post (G.DPW), -4.9% at EUR10.42, also hurt by comments.(CHE) DUBLIN--NCB Stockbrokers cuts '02, '03 operating profit forecasts for Irish Life & Permanent (U.IRP) post 1H results last week. New forecast is for EUR217M, EUR327M vs previous EUR279M, EUR369M. "The '02 downgrade principally reflects a higher variance (in management fees) and higher losses from general insurance," says John Kelly. "The '03 downgrade reflects the impact of unwinding its existing life business due to weak markets." New operating EPS for '02, '03 are EUR0.781, EUR1.21 vs EUR1.00, EUR1.37. Shares -0.8% at EUR12.25. (DLM) STOCKHOLM--Analysts expecting ^Nokia#^ (NOK) to reiterate guidance for 3Q sales of EUR7.2B-EUR7.6B and EPS of EUR0.15-EUR0.17 during update Tue, though some say it may guide to upper end of EPS range on market share gains. Merrill Lynch sees 3Q sales at EUR6.95B, saying reports from suppliers suggest 3Q phone industry sales may not meet Nokia's expectations. Shares -0.8% at EUR14.12 in Helsinki.(LCK) FRANKFURT--Just because German auto demand may be bottoming out, as signaled by Aug sales, it doesn't mean a real recovery is around the corner, says Sal Oppenheim's Patrick Juchemich. "Sentiment on car shares might stay rather dull," he says. BMW (G.BMW) -0.3%, DaimlerChrysler (DCX) -2.2%, VW (G.VOW) -1.9%. (BGD) LONDON-- British Energy (BGY) -75% at 20p after resuming trading following agreement with government on short-term GBP410M loan facility. Attention is now likely to turn to the longer-term restructuring the company must try to put together by the end of the month. "The government has now prevented whole thing collapsing in the short term," analyst says. "It now has to go away and see if it can solve the whole thing on its own." (AXC) LONDON-- Knowledge Support Systems (U.KLS) report weak 1H results after failing to capitalize on opportunities in the non-petrol price management division by focusing on retail areas, says Investec Securities. Analyst Gareth Evans says decision to offer other services in the pricing area is a rational move. Says FY sales forecast of GBP3M may be difficult to achieve but cash balance of GBP22M supports hold rating. Trades -3.2% at 15p. (NPF) LONDON--CSFB says speculative shorts are shifting short-term base metals price vulnerability to the upside. However if widespread concerns of a double-dip global economy are realized spot metals prices could fall further. Says copper is the best supported of the base metals. Despite the weaker industrial outlook iron ore volumes remain strong and spot thermal coal prices are now recovering off cycle lows. Anglo American (AAUK) +2.8% at 776p, Rio Tinto (U.RTZ) +1.7% at 1083p.(MMD) Modificato da - gz on 9/9/2002 15:13:2

Opssss! Dimenticavo, all'ultima riga aggiungete la parola "cialtroni" o "cialtronacci", a piacere. Paola

Finalmente, grazie per la risposta! Una cosa è fondamentale! Mai stata più lontana dai miei pensieri l'idea che la sua rubrica fosse inutile!!!! Anzi. I miei commenti caustici erano (e sono!!!!!!) dovuti solo ed esclusivamente al ribrezzo e al voltastomaco che questi personaggi e/o istituzioni vomitevoli mi suscitano. Lorsignori hanno spellato e smutandato milioni di risparmiatori (tanti pensionati, anche) approfittando dell'aureola che si erano creati, anche, con l'aiuto dei mass media. Per cui se le dico che vedere rubare le caramelle dalle mani di un bimbo mi fà INCAZZARE SELVAGGIAMENTE (come dovrebbe succedere a lei) ne deriva chiaramente che ogni tipo di critica non è rivolta a lei e nemmeno ai suoi argomenti, ma agli artefici di questa IGNOBILE MATTANZA. Mai ritenuto inutile niente del suo sito! Mi sono spesso complimentata per l'impegno, l'energia e la pazienza dedicata alla sua creatura... ma forse lei è talmente assuefatto a chi le tritura "los cogones" che le riesce difficile discernere, poi, tra chi la affetterebbe e chi denigra dei reali buffoni, ladroni, affamatori, ecc... Paola

------------------------ ... Signori chiamati comunemente ANAL-ISTI hanno fatto rovinare più di qualcuno, è stato acclarato che davano buy e sell a seconda delle necessità di quelli che gli tenevano il guinzaglio (opss, che gli pagavano lo stipendio), tutto sempre con le "muraglie cinesi" bene in vista.... ed esistono delle statistiche al riguardo che non mi sembra proprio confortino la sua teoria della concordanza e/o correttezza delle analisi con i successivi andamenti. Ecc. ecc. ecc. Ma la storia è già scritta, basta leggerla. 2) che la maggior parte dei trade che ho postato (ed eseguito) sono stati in profitto o al minimo in pareggio. Alcuni, come tutti possono verificare, sono stati in perdita ma il saldo "credo" sia abbondantemente positivo --------------------------------- sono d'accordo con quello che scrive : è vero che la maggioranza degli analisti ha sbagliato nel mercato orso ed è vero che la maggioranza dei segnali che lei posta sono utili o credo in utile (dico credo perchè non sempre è facile seguire cose tipo Long GBR/usd a 154.76 con S/R a 153.32...") Ho fatto un esempio polemico perchè si trattava di azioni e non di futures e perchè mi è venuta a scrivere che la rubrica (a mio avviso) utile "Analisti Europei" non serviva a niente. Tutto qui. Ma nel caso specifico io cerco di fare una piccola rubrica in cui noto le cose che mi sembrano rilevanti delle raccomandazioni delle case di investimento più importanti. Ci sono centinaia di raccomandazioni e analisi nel mondo e centinaia di azioni di cui si parla. Io cerco in mezzo a queste informazioni alcune che siano (spero) significative. A volte anche A CONTRARIO, cioè non per dire che occorre fare quello che UBS Warburg raccomanda, ma per tenerne conto in senso negativo. Ma ci sono molti casi in cui quello che dicono Solomon o Goldman o Lehman O Warburg conta eccome. Vuoi per il peso che questi hanno come istituzione. Vuoi anche per la credibilità che hanno comunque visto che le aziende alla fine qualcuno le deve analizzare. Sono centinaia i bilanci e migliaia i dati aziendali in tutto il mondo. E' un lavoro come un altro e occorre stimare se il fatturato o i conti e l'indebitamento andranno male o peggio oppure miglioreranno. Qualcuno lo deve fare. Lei non lo fa e io non lo faccio, ma c'è gente che deve raccogliere queste informazioni e fare queste analisi ed è un lavoro come un altro. Alla fine il mercato riflette gli andamenti delle imprese, in modo a volte ritardato o esagerato, ma tutta la speculazione ruota intorno a dei valori economici di riferimento in qualche modo. Non vedo perchè allora dichiarare di continuo che tutto questo lavoro e qualunque tentativo di tenerne conto, anche in forma molto sintetica come provo a fare io, sia solo inutile. Perlomeno se si vuole sostenerlo sarebbe meglio offrire una spiegazione alternativa. Modificato da - gz on 9/5/2002 21:24:36

Zibordi, mi sembra che sia giusto dire ... UP.

Credo sia una pia illusione aspettare che lei risponda... eh Zibordi? Paola

Anzi Zibordi, le voglio rispondere più civilmente. Faccio una premessa lampo, peccato che lei non mi abbia usato come contrarian sui trade che ho fatto e postato, avrei fatto più soldi... Cercherò di tenere il discorso sul professionale e non sul personale. Due fatti mi sembrano incontrovertibili: 1) che questi ... Signori chiamati comunemente ANAL-ISTI hanno fatto rovinare più di qualcuno, è stato acclarato che davano buy e sell a seconda delle necessità di quelli che gli tenevano il guinzaglio (opss, che gli pagavano lo stipendio), tutto sempre con le "muraglie cinesi" bene in vista.... ed esistono delle statistiche al riguardo che non mi sembra proprio confortino la sua teoria della concordanza e/o correttezza delle analisi con i successivi andamenti. Ecc. ecc. ecc. Ma la storia è già scritta, basta leggerla. 2) che la maggior parte dei trade che ho postato (ed eseguito) sono stati in profitto o al minimo in pareggio. Alcuni, come tutti possono verificare, sono stati in perdita ma il saldo "credo" sia abbondantemente positivo. -Ripetutamente ha asserito che si può esprimere liberamente il proprio parere che il forum non è solo buy e sell (anche recentemente). -Più volte sono intervenuta in post dove la facevano a fette per lamentele su trade andati pesantemente male e ho asserito che i periodi negativi li abbiamo tutti, certo è un pochino più pesante quando si lavora con future, ma la perfezione non esiste e poi bisogna guardare al saldo finale. E lei cosa tira fuori dal cilindro per attaccarmi e/o difendere la categoria degli inchiappettatori (leggasi anche INCHIAPPETTA-TORI)? Un trade andato male, con tanto di grafico..., su un titolo del cavolo da quattro soldi... mica su future o valute... della serie io pesco le trote... in una vasca di allevamento. La morale? Praticamente possiamo essere tutti spellati da Zibordi perchè nessuno ha uno score del 100%... Non è che c'è dall'altro sotto? ...se crede che le rovini la piazza... dica pure... Concludo dicendo, come spesso ho già fatto, che la casa è sua e la gestisce come vuole, ci ammette chi vuole, che nonostante tutto la apprezzo per il coraggio e la voglia che ci mette (con la sua faccia) e che trovare spazi come quallo che lei offre non è semplice. Paola p.s.: se rispondesse mi farebbe cosa gradita

Clap clap clap! Paola

Se tutti gli analisti o i maggiori sbagliano sempre allora basta fare il contrario. Quindi tenere presente quello che dicono sarebbe utile. Ma prima di dire che è inutile o ridicolo anche solo notare le raccomandazioni di qualunque casa di investimento sarebbe bene dare qualche dimostrazione concreta di quello che si dice. Per quanto riguarda però le azioni, mi sembra che l'unica segnalazione che fosse perfetta per chi volesse fare l'esatto contrario fosse quella indicata da Paola che se non erro ha avuto una sola idea su CMGI che faceva guadagnare il 150% se eseguita al contrario esatto Sono polemico in questo caso, sicuro, ma non capisco perchè chi ha fornito sulle azioni (perchè si parla di azioni) una sola raccomandazione, non troppo esatta sia come entrata che come uscita (perdeva il 50% e poi vendeva appena prima che il titolo esplodesse al rialzo) non rifletta un attimo sui problemi del proprio metodo prima di dichiarare che le analisi fondamentali degli analisti professionali sono sempre e solo un truffa. Modificato da - gz on 9/2/2002 15:34:19

Anal-isti ancora al lavoro: >Solomon Smith Barney abbassa diverse telecom tra cui Telecom italia e British a neutrale e alza invece KPN, Telefonica e Telia< --------------------------------------------- Un parere? Vogliono comprare le prime due a un prezzo più basso del corrente e vendere le seconde tre un prezzo più alto del corrente. >Credite Suisse punta tutto sui difensivi e dice che i tassi a 10 anni devono scendere ancora molto (il Bund salire) in europa< --------------------------------------------- Tutti uguali, andiamo sul difensivo (che ci vendono loro) che loro con i gain si comprano l'aggressivo (ora basso) e che poi ci venderanno successivamente... Ma c'è qualcuno di voi che gli crerde ancora a questi... signori? Paola

Solomon Smith Barney abbassa diverse telecom tra cui Telecom italia e British a neutrale e alza invece KPN, Telefonica e Telia Credite Suisse punta tutto sui difensivi e dice che i tassi a 10 anni devono scendere ancora molto (il Bund salire) in europa Per il resto Sanofi delude un poco sui risultati ed è però sbudellata dell'11% ------------------------------------------------------ 0947 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--SSSB adjusts European wireline telecom ratings to be exposed to stocks with highest potential for strategic change made neccessary by deteriorating fundamentals. Says shifts in management make change more possible and capital rationing makes it more imminent. Reckons ^Telefonica#^, ^Telia#^ and ^KPN#^ should benefit most. Downgrades BT Group, Portugal Telecom, TDC, Telecom Italia, Telekom Austria and Telenor to neutral from outperform. Upgrades Telia to outperform from neutral. (NPB) 0959 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--British Energy (BGY) -5.3% at 80p. Philip Hollobone, at SG Securities, notes plenty of reports "flying around the weekend press, some positive, some negative" including talk of sale of US operations. Says it's a wait-and-see game with regard to whether or not the UK Govt will come to the party and bail BE out, but still expects dividend cut at company's interim results in Nov. Remains seller of stock down to 50p level. (TRF) 0959 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Cordiant (CDA) -1.8% amid reports CEO Michael Bungey will step down following profit and share price slump. Cordiant not immediately available to comment. Bungey has been under tremendous pressure for around a year now but has had a very difficult job, given the assets at his disposal, says an analyst. But Cordiant agencies have lost high-profile accounts recently, adding to the company's woes, analyst adds. (KKL) 0959 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Merrill Lynch keeps Adidas-Salomon (G.ADS) at neutral. Says company has confirmed that European market is tough but it will meet its 3-5% sales growth target. Has yet to evaluate effect of floods on demand. Bank says company has cautious outlook for winter sports Salomon brand but Taylor-Made golf brand is operating in line. Says Adidas discount is 15% vs Nike's 20%, which Merrill Lynch is concerned about. Adidas flat at EUR72.95. (RGL) 0957 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Royal & Sun Alliance (RSA) -6.8% at 116p. With equity markets falling again it's "one of those stocks that will suffer most," trader says. Notes shares have rallied recently after falling below 100p. "People were worried about solvency when the FTSE 100 was below 4000 points and it looks like we're heading back down there. The focus is also switching back to the fact the company's likely to be forced into a deeply discounted rights issue." (NPB) 0956 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Whitbread (U.WTB) +0.3%, at 531.5p, after strong trading performance during first 24 weeks of financial year. Analyst James Hollins at WestLB Panmure sees no real catalyst for stock from here but maintains neutral stance and says statement was in-line. Notes Marriott hotels like-for-like sales dropped 1.9%, slightly better-than-expectations but Beefeater restaurants disappointed with like-for-like sales up just 1.5%. Says Travel Inn budget hotels and David Lloyd healthclubs demonstrated robust sales performance as expected. MMD) 0954 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- British Vita (U.BVI) +5.7% at 241.5p. Merrill Lynch analyst Robyn Coombs says 1H was better than her own forecast and expects shares to rise in near future. Says limited visibility outlook is in line with rest of sector. Keeps neutral recommendation. (EXB) 0952 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- CSFB overweights defensives for 4 reasons: poor macro backdrop, with "high probability of (rate) policy lag - reactive not preemptive;" bond yield downside, with 3.75% expected on the 10-year, suggesting "10% underperformance by cyclicals;" valuations - defensives seen at bottom of range; lastly, funds flow: cyclical weightings "highest since May 01." Has bias toward "growth defensives:" ^Diageo#^, target 1000p; ^Swiss Re#^, CHF145; ^GlaxoSmithKline#^, 1450p; Thales, EUR55; BAE, 430p. In "straight defensives" favors: Centrica, target 270p; BAT, 751p; Wolters Kluwer, EUR27. (KOO) 0950 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Volkswagen (G.VOW) opens wage talks later Mon with IG Metall, as has separate contracts from the ones governing most of the industry. Though a wage dispute led to strikes at other carmakers in spring, VW's talks should be uneventful and the deal will probably be in line with the industry's, says a Munich analyst. Says talks should be neutral for shares. Shares -3% at EUR44.99, in line with sector and in line with falls on the DAX. (BGD) 0950 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH-- ^Sanofi#^ (F.SAN) 1H earnings slightly disappointing, mainly due to smaller-than-expected rise in gross margin, Pictet analysts say. "The maintenance of full-year expectation will come as some relief to the market, but on the basis of these results we will have to review our full-year gross margin expectations and full-year earnings forecasts." Shares -11% at EUR54.50. (AAG) 0947 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--If Vivendi Universal (V) can get GBP8B for SFR stake, it would be an attractive deal, says JP Morgan analyst. Values stake at just GBP6.7B. Doesn't see deal in the next 2-3 months as Vivendi should and will focus on other assets, including international telecoms, US real estate. Still, banks, shareholders seen putting the pressure on Vivendi to take the cash if it's offered unless Vivendi can convince interested parties there's an alternative. Ultimately, Vivendi will dispose of Cegetel, but not yet, adds analyst. (SAL) 0947 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--Legal claim against Numico (N.NUM) units GNC and Rexall in U.S. appears to be out of proportion to the revenues GNC generated, Rabo Securities analyst says. Newspaper report says claims are around EUR350M. Rabo says Numico is insured against claims though it doesn't reveal maximum level. More worrying, it says, is changing attitude among Americans versus nutritional supplements. Reiterates hold. Shares -3.6% at EUR19.35. (PNM) Modificato da - gz on 9/2/2002 13:2:33

Ho saltato questo esercizio per un paio di giorni, ma in non c'erano novità cruciali in europa Abbiamo ^Marconi#^ +22% grazie alla ristrutturazione di debito Lehman Brothers dice sell ^Orange#^ (ahi!) ^Ahold#^ che fa da spia per la spesa per consumi mista ^Diageo#^ come idea di Dresdner-Kleinwort ^Swiss Re#^ declassata ancora, ma già sbudellata ampiamente ^CMG#^, società di information tech e wireless inglese che sorprende in positivo e fa +21% e tutti gli analisi che erano sell ora la spostano a hold 1000 GMT (Dow Jones) ZURICH--Several analysts hint at a ^Swiss Re#^ (Z.REI) rating downgrade, but apparently are waiting until after 1200 GMT session with management. But a chief dealer wonders whether expected downgrades will come too late. "It seems the market's beat them to it. Any downgrades are probably already priced in." Shares -10% at CHF110. Some bargain hunters have already bought at session lows of CHF106. (BAK) 0957 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein keeps Morse (U.MOR) at buy, but will cut its 10% top-line growth estimate to flat revenue growth in FY 03 and reduce pretax profit by 16%, with the recovery pushed out to 04. DrKW says the company's strong cash position underpins its buy and puts it in a strong position to continue its program of targeted European acquisitions. Trades -9.4% at 49p. (NPF) 0957 GMT (Dow Jones) BRUSSELS--Tessenderlo (B.TES) -2.8% to EUR28.26 as Bank Degroof downgrades stock to hold from accumulate. Degroof says short term upside potential limited. Share has outperformed Bel-20 by 3% and European chemical sector by 6.6%. Degroof also warns company remains sensitive to economic cycle. Maintains fair value of EUR31. (SDB) 0954 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--HVB Group (G.BHV) -3.3% at EUR21.59, Commerzbank (G.CBK) +5.7% at EUR10.77. Dusseldorf analyst says stocks only showing relative weakness after outperforming Deutsche Bank (DB) and DAX past week. HVB gained 18%, Commerz 14%, Deutsche only 7.8%, DAX +6.7%. Sees both banks subject to market scrutiny though, as neither has provided exposure to German flooding. Doesn't expect it to be dramatic, but uncertainty factor unlikely to appeal to investors. (CHE) 0954 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Lehman Brothers says given that ^Orange#^ (F.ORA) appears expensive on relative measures, investors should use a positive reaction to solid results as an opportunity to sell. Sees financial performance below the revenue line on track, but stock overhang resulting from France Telecom's (FTE) debt issues remains a key risk to investment case. 1H results due Sep 4. Reiterates underweight recommendation with EUR5.50 share price target. Shares -2.7% at EUR5.38. (MJK) 0952 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Diageo#^ (DEO) -1.3% at 763.5p after closing Wed as the only FTSE 100 gainer. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein has buy rating and 950p target and makes Diageo its idea of the week. Says shares have underperformed the FTSE 100 by 8% over last month on concerns that ready-to-drink momentum is slowing and US distributor realignment is hitting difficulties. DrKW believes both are consistent with or ahead of forecasts so buys stock on long-term strategic strength. (NPB) 0952 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON-- ^Marconi#^ +24% at 2.1p after restructuring deal announced. Bear Stearns' credit analyst Chavan Bhogaita says deal trying to give company best chance of survival, but sector still tough. Notes published business plan runs from FY'04 to FY'07 - but the real issue is what happens in next 18 months. Even at FY'04, executing business plan is harder than drawing one up. Euro bonds due 2010 now trading 16-18, down three points. Dollar bonds at 17-19%. (GRE) 0952 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Deutsche Bank upgrades Bodycote (U.BOY) to buy from market perform, 200p target. Bodycote's end markets have stabilized but are showing no signs of recovery yet. However, high operational gearing means it'll be an early beneficiary in a recovery. Stock fall after AGM means shares now inexpensive, it says. (HGT) 0950 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM-- ^Ahold#^'s reiteration of FY outlook of 5%-to-8% EPS growth is reassuring, but it looks ambitious as requires significant acceleration of EBITA growth in 2H, SSSB says. "The required growth looks excessive." Says '03 organic sales growth target of 4%-to-5% is disappointing against SSSB's forecast of close to 6%. 2003 EPS guidance of "respectable" growth is "obscure." Reiterates 2H outperform, high-risk rating with EUR20 target. Shares -2.5% at EUR17.55. (MFV) 0949 GMT (Dow Jones) ATHENS--Lehman Brothers ups FY '02 revenue estimate for Cosmote (I.CMT) by 6% to EUR1.15B from EUR1.08B. Also EBITDA and EPS by 3% to respectively EUR488M from EUR472M and EUR0.64 from EUR0.61. Also ups estimates through to '06. Says move follows solid 1H results Wed which show company can "continue to improve financial performance in an environment of increasing competition". Says following changes, stock still cheap versus sector peers trading at 6.9x EV/EBITDA vs sector average of 7.9x. Keeps EUR13 target and overweight rating. Stock -0.8% at EUR9.96. (PCT) 0945 GMT (Dow Jones) LISBON--SCH says 1H results in Electricidade de Portugal (EDP) to be affected by 2Q net losses in Brazilian subs Bandeirante and Escelsa. Sees EUR15M net negative contribution from Brazil in EDP's 2Q '02 results. Notes Escelsa results penalized by EUR115M in FX losses, though "to minimize the impact on its consolidated accounts, EDP Brasil made an application in US$ equivalent to 52% of Escelsa's total US-denominated debt ($493.25M)". EDP to post results Sep 12. Shares +1.2% at EUR1.67. (NSR) 0944 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Merrill Lynch upgrades CMG (U.CMM) to buy from neutral, target 78p after 1H results were much better than expected. Risks seen coming from pricing pressure in the Benelux region which could affect margins. Says ongoing cost control at IT services and better-than-expected performance of WDS, earnings momentum could improve and Merrill argues stock deserves a higher rating. Trades +9.7% at 71p. (NPF) Modificato da - gz on 8/29/2002 13:48:48

Nell'insieme ci sono parecchi tagli e declassamenti oggi. Solomon Smith Barney parla bene di ^Unicredito#^, migliore banca italiana Bulgari sale perchè sembra che la posizione degli short fosse molto grossa e Swatch ha annunciato buoni risultati dando l'idea che il settore recupera e innervosisce gli short Su ^HDP#^ c'è un pezzo al vetriolo di DJ che dice che è un rimbalzo per "suckers" (fessi) ^Mediaset#^ sale su un proposta di legge aumentare la quota di pubblicità ecc... ^Infineon#^ abbassata da Lehman Morgan taglia le stime su ^D-Telekom#^ e Ahold (assicurazione) Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein declassa ^Sonera#^ Lehman sostiene ^Volkswagen#^ thank you e ^Roche#^ Breakingviews dice cose buone su Pinault Printemps ---------------------------------------- 1205 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN--SSSB says Unicredito Italiano (I.UCI) is still the best choice for Italian banks, as it's Europe's fifth-most efficient, keeping it at buy, EUR6 target. IntesaBCI (I.ITB) is second choice at outperform, EUR3.18 target, as bank offers best restructuring potential, greatest exposure to improvement in macro conditions. In third, Sanpaolo IMI (IMI), as although it has the best asset quality, outlook still bearish on bank's core asset management. Keeps at outperform, EUR11.8 target. Overall, says capital ratios are stretched for all 3 banks vs European peers. Unicredito +0.1% at EUR4.13, IntesaBCI -0.8% at EUR2.44, and Sanpaolo IMI +0.1% at EUR8.95. (BJL 0937 GMT (Dow Jones) MILAN--Bulgari (I.BUL) +6.3% at EUR5.41, gaining close to 20% in last two sessions as investors believe gloomy period for luxury good sector is close to an end. Trader says: "Swatch results gave some optimism to sector. Moreover Bulgari has been heavily hammered in recent weeks and funds are recovering short positions." Resistance at EUR5.8. (LZP) 0927 GMT (Dow Jones)MILAN--Fiat (FIA) +5.9% at EUR12.25 extending Thu's gains on reports that sale of financial arm Fidis that will allow company to reduce gross debt by between EUR6-EUR7B. Trader says: "Investors have been waiting for a strong signal from company on its debt reduction program and finally it arrived. Moreover many fund managers had gone short on stock and are recovering positions on good news." Resistance at EUR12.5. (LZP) 1045 GMT (Dow Jones) FRANKFURT--Infineon (IFX) -3.6% to EUR13.02 due to overnight weak semiconductor shares in the US, Lehman analyst says. Says Infineon exposure to DRAM sector keeping the share depressed as the sector had a dismal 2Q and likely to have a tougher 3Q. Expects DRAM sector to pick up in 4Q and that might help tech shares. (RGL) 1021 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Deutsche Telekom -1% at EUR11.58. Goldman Sachs sees a hit to net income from increased depreciation from one-off writedowns and accelerated depreciation in 2Q '02 on revised tax guidelines. Cuts '02, '03 net income forecasts to EUR7.03B and EUR5.01B from EUR6.05B and EUR4.95B respectively. Revises group capex to EUR8.1B, EUR8B for '02, '03, which cuts '02/'03 net debt to EUR69.3B and EUR69.6B from EUR70.33B and EUR70.53B, including pension, but not incomplete disposals. (KOO) 0939 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Pinault Printemps Redoute (F.PPR) up 2.1% at EUR92 on Thu's news of Guilbert sale, changing debt maturity to 4 years from two. Actions remove any doubts about liquidity and balance sheet, while price received for Guilbert indicates no forced sale, say analysts. Move paves way for re-rating: "the first of a series in an asset disposal program aimed at restoring PPR's creditworthiness to BBB," says Merrill Lynch. Believes falling risk premium will lift equity rating, but may be capped by recession fears. 0954 GMT (Dow Jones) LONDON--Breakingviews, the online commentary service, says: "Pinault Printemps Redoute (F.PPR) raises EUR825M from Guilbert disposal. This is good news for the French retailer whose stock has been hammered on liquidity concerns. The sale of its mail order office supplies unit also starts to clean up PPR's conglomerate structure." (HGT) 1011 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein cuts Sonera (SNRA) to hold from buy after shares reach target of EUR4.7. Target based on what DrKW believes Telia (S.TLA) may have to pay under mandatory cash offer to complete its takeover. Shares -2.9% at EUR4.75 in Helsinki. (LCK) 1142 GMT (Dow Jones) AMSTERDAM--Morgan Stanley says it doesn't expect surprises in Ahold's (AHO) 2Q earnings Thu, but it worries that dividend may disappoint. Says more confusion is likely, so no need to buy. Expects any message from management to be distorted by more disclosure. Notes stock has bounced hard from lows, further rerating unlikely. Sees better growth, value elsewhere in sector. Rates underweight. Shares -0.1% at EUR19.09. (MFV) 1131 GMT (Dow Jones) COPENHAGEN--UBS Warburg raises Vestas (K.VWS) to buy from hold after 20% plunge a day-earlier on disappointing 1H, making the stock a cheap buy now. Lowers price target to DKK170 from DKK260. Vestas continues to be blown away, -10% at DKK119. 1203 GMT (Dow Jones) STOCKHOLM--DrKW keeps hold rating on Swedbank (S.FSB), SEK131 target after 2Q report fell short of market expectations. Says main surprise was loss in trading operations but otherwise cost, revenue trends were better than expected. Stock -3.6% at SEK107.50. (RIV) 1107 GMT (Dow Jones) PARIS--Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein lowers Carrefour (F.CAR) share price target to EUR53 from EUR63 to reflect recent weakness in equity markets. Expects 1H '02 results due out Aug 28 to be relatively mixed. Says cost control in domestic markets will have allowed for some margin expansion even in the face of falling sales. Maintains buy recommendation. Even in the absence of a significant stimulus to top line, expects vigorous action on supply chain improvements and staffing levels to provide a safe engine for profit in the coming years. Shares +0.9% at EUR46.25. (MJK) =DJ THE SKEPTIC: HdP Has Suckers' Rally Written All Over It MILAN (Dow Jones)--Italy's Holding di Partecipazioni SpA (I.HPI) is certainly a standout. As other European media stocks crash and burn - the sector is the only one in the Dow Jones STOXX to have posted a decline during August - HdP has miraculously managed a gain of 29%. Investors shouldn't be fooled, however. The miracle has little to do with sound fundamentals and everything to do with corporate politics. Since its creation in 1997 as the industrial spinoff of Gemina Holding, itself originally a division of Fiat SpA (FIA), HdP has been a microcosm of the balance of power among Italy's business elite. Traditionally that elite has been dominated by companies like Fiat, investment bank Mediobanca (I.MDB) and their allies. All are HdP shareholders. Through HdP, these partners own Italy's biggest daily Corriere Della Sera. The diverse interests of the owners have granted CDS a degree of freedom unusual among Italian newspapers, all of which are controlled by big industrial groups often seeking political influence. But with Fiat weakened earlier this year by its loss-making auto unit, speculation has been rampant that the conglomerate would be forced to sell its 10.4% HdP stake to raise much-needed cash. In a Milanese market starved for news during August, HdP shares rose on hopes on that the resulting boardroom reshuffle would hasten the departure of Chief Executive Maurizio Romiti, the man behind HdP's disastrous foray a few years ago into the fashion world with buys of assets such as luxury brand Valentino. Romiti is now abandoning that strategy, and wants to turn HdP into a pan-European media behemoth. His past missteps, however, mean he has very little credibility. Unfortunately for those who have missed out on this month's rise in HdP shares, the Fiat story has gone quiet for the moment. There's now talk that Romiti will hang on, no doubt due to the influence of his father Cesare, ex-Fiat chairman and the controller of a 9.2% stake in HdP through Gemina. If Fiat stays involved in HdP, the status quo will be preserved. Deadlock already rules at the company, due to the partners' desire to avoid a messy power struggle - even if it means sacrificing the bottom line. Investors buying in at current levels do so at their peril. (ASCA) - Milano, 20 ago - Lehman Brothers inserisce Roche e Volkswagen tra i titoli da comprare nel prossimo mese mentre giudica Carrefour da vendere. La Focus List di Lehman Brothers mette in luce una serie di titoli per cui la banca d'affari si aspetta un marcato movimento al rialzo (''long'') o al ribasso (''short'') fino al 20 settembre. La banca mantiene un giudizio di Equal-weight su Roche con obiettivo di prezzo di 120 franchi svizzeri in quanto ritiene che il raggiungimento di obiettivi clinici e regolamentari e' segno che non si ripetera' la scarsa performance degli ultimi anni. Infatti la banca sottolinea come i risultati dimostrino che e' possibile un miglioramento dei margini grazie ad un cambiamento del mix di prodotto che da' maggior enfasi a prodotti specialistici che non richiedono grossi esborsi per marketing. Lehman mantiene un Overweight (sovrappeso) su Volkswagen confidando che il punto di svolta per la casa automobilistica tedesca arrivi gia' dal primo trimestre del 2003 piuttosto che dall'ultimo trimestre dell'anno prossimo come scontato dal mercato. Infatti la banca d'affari ritiene che il lancio di nuovi modelli piu' che compensi l'impatto negativo che la quarta generazione di Golf ha sui risultati prima che questa venga sostituita all'inizio del 2004. Per Lehman altri titoli ''long'' e giudicati anche Overweight sono BAA, Dixons, Electrolux, Amvescap e Reed Elsevier. Da vendere invece risulta Carrefour, giudicato Underweight (sottopeso) in quanto Lehman si aspetta risultati semestrali deludenti a causa della crescita meno forte in Francia e nel resto d'Europa. Lehman ritiene che la strategia del colosso francese di fare promozione sui prodotti non abbia funzionato con un conseguente impatto negativo sui margini. Inoltre peseranno anche le divisione dell'America latina, con problemi fondamentali per i supermercati in Brasile e Argentina che vanno ben oltre la svalutazione delle valute nei rispettivi paesi. Altri titoli ''short'' nella Focus List di Lehman includono Rhodia e British