Argentina x Zibordi

errata corrige come noto il Rand è sudafricano (la fretta, la mancanza di un editor, il voler strafare...)

Ma cusalè il rand australiano?

c'è una crisi nel rand australiano ora per cui questo si aggiunge a dare un tocco di pessimismo su tutto quello che è debito e valute al momento ma il punto è che l'argentina deve a) dollarizzare b) svalutare allo stesso tempo perchè il cambio è troppo alto e quindi aspettere che questa mossa fosse annunciata vedi qui sotto ------------------------------ By Wall Street Journal staff reporters David Luhnow in Buenos Aires and Pamela Druckerman in New York Although Argentina took a giant leap this week toward embracing the dollar as its only currency, such a move wouldn't be likely to rescue the country's ailing economy or prove to be an easy switch. There still are huge political and financial barriers to full dollarization, which would take the Argentine peso out of circulation entirely. And Argentina's other economic potholes, like an unserviceable government debt and a shrinking economy, wouldn't disappear along with the peso, analysts say. "Dollarization is not going to be a panacea," says economist Andrew Rose of the University of California, Berkeley. "There is no quick fix for them, period." Greenbacks have circulated in Buenos Aires for a decade, thanks to a 1991 law that pegged the peso one-to-one with the dollar and freed up Argentines to use either one. Hoping to squash growing fears that the currency peg would come unlocked, Argentina's economy chief, Domingo Cavallo, decreed over the weekend that all new bank loans would be in dollars, and that existing peso loans could be switched to dollars at no cost. He also partially froze cash withdrawals to discourage bank runs. But deciding to take the next step toward full dollarization could be a difficult task. Mr. Cavallo, who has said he would dollarize before devaluing the peso, lacks the simple majority in Congress he would need to pass a dollarization law. Many members of the powerful Peronist party oppose dollarization because it was once the pet project of former President Carlos Menem, who is now vying for control of the party. And some left-wing politicians argue that Argentina's fraying, wheat-colored notes are a source of national pride. Also, it is still unclear whether Argentina has sufficient reserves to turn all its pesos into dollars right now, economists say. When the government announced the freeze on withdrawals last weekend it had only a small cushion of reserves to keep the currency peg intact. In practical terms, wiping out the peso wouldn't change that much in Argentina. Some 70% of Argentine bank deposits are already in dollars, and nearly all long-term loans and business transactions are dollar-based. The mere possibility of a devaluation, however, has helped keep interest rates high. Argentina can eliminate that uncertainty by ditching its printing presses altogether, fans of the dollar say. On the streets of Buenos Aires, most people say they would rather use the dollar than the peso if forced to choose. "Dollarization -- without doubt," says Carmen Pereira, a 55-year-old owner of a small hair salon. The reason: In 1988, as runaway prices ravaged the economy, Ms. Pereira bought an airline ticket to Lebanon. Troubles at home kept her from traveling, and when she received a refund from the airline 10 months later, the value of the amount had been so eroded by inflation that the only thing she could buy with the money was an alarm clock. Other recent love affairs with the dollar have borne fruit. El Salvador and Ecuador have been enjoying lower inflation and lending rates since replacing their own national heroes with images of the U.S. founding fathers over the past two years. But for Argentina, which would be by far the biggest country outside the U.S. to adopt the dollar to date, the move could prolong its four-year economic agony by locking in the strong dollar. Since the peso is pegged to the U.S. currency, the rising dollar has driven up prices in Argentina for everything from steaks to soccer games. Despite a recent spate of deflation, Buenos Aires is still the priciest capital in Latin America. Economists say striking an agreement with the U.S. on dollarization -- which would include incentives to keep the dollar in place -- would be crucial to making the dollar stick as the country's official currency. Some governments, such as Liberia, that simply switched to the dollar independently later reverted to printing their own money when they were pressed for cash. The U.S. is keeping mum on the matter. "Countries can make a decision on dollarization on their own," said a U.S. Treasury spokesman. "It's not necessary for the U.S. government to weigh in on that decision." Argentina's leading industrial group, the Union Industrial Argentina, said yesterday that it opposes dollarizing, and wants the country eventually to unhook its peso from the dollar and let it trade on open markets, as the currencies of regional neighbors Brazil and Mexico do. Market trading would likely weaken the peso, making Argentine exports less expensive abroad. Argentina's latest step toward dollarization may not eliminate the risk of devaluation. Analysts say the government could still reverse course and devalue the peso. Analysts say, however, this direction is less likely, because a devalued peso would make debt denominated in dollars more difficult to repay. A third, hybrid, option would be for Argentina to switch to the dollar at a devalued exchange rate, analysts say. That would still make dollar debts more costly but it would eliminate the troubles that stem from an overvalued currency.

se qualcuno di voi avesse un attimo di tempo per andare a vedere cosa dicono su forum di bradybond.net "color of the market" vedi sotto sono molto competenti veramente molto

si in effetti speriamo tengano..anche se io ne ho il 2% del portafoglio viceversa sono un po piu esposto sulle xerox..ma sono sensibilmente migliorate da 3 mesi a questa parte..ed e' tutta un altra cosa!!

comunque a brevissimo ho una prima scadenza..le altre a febbraio e marzo 02..troppo tardi per il coupon rate ..vi terrò informati se..paga!

condor e altri: forse il + esposto in argentina bonds sono io sia in $ che Euro/Lire...non importa quello che faranno sui tassi sempre meglio che acquistare bonds in Us o Eurolandia, l'unico rischio è il taglio del face value che però mi sembra veramente una soluzione da pazzi per la già debole credibilità del paese...

anche perche' come dice lei Zibordi una volta comprati conviene portarli alla scadenza non fosse altro per lo spread che c'e' fra il bid e ask..

io ieri ho comprato arg. 2003 in usd..pochi perche' e a rischio..ma ne ho messi un po' in portafoglio

sì lo spread è arrivato a un livello che indica di comprare ma l'altro ingrediente è la dollarizzazione o comunque uno evento da prima pagina come le dimissioni di Cavallo o la denuncia dell'accordo doganale del Mercosur e non lo abbiamo ancora va tenuto presente che non c'è fretta nel senso che se uno vuole comprare debito di un paese sull'orlo della bancarotta poi non come comprare Olivetti che se si accorge che ha sbagliato la rivende è una decisione a cui si pensa dieci volte e una volta presa non si esce in giornata dalle obbligazioni comprate

Oggi lo spread sui titoli americani è arrivato a 32% ( contro i 23/25 che dovevano essere il livello per eventualmente comprare i titoli Argentina ) mentre la notizia da prima pagina non c'è ancora. Sembra però che la situazione sia "più nera" del previsto e si parla di traformare i bond in dollari in peso e poi svalutare ( 50%, 70% ? ) Non è che questa crisi rischia di essere molto peggiore di quella Russa e questi bond siano proprio da evitare ( o per chi li ha di uscire al primo rimbalzo - se ci sarà ) ?? Grazie e saluti GCuneo

Beh giovanni, in realtà con i prezzi attuali credo che la perdita di valore per la compressione cedole attualizzata nel prezzo del titolo sia già scontata ai prezzi di oggi...diverso è il fatto se, oltre alla rinegoziazione del tasso max al 7% e all'allungamento della scadenza di 3 anni, venga decurtato anche il par value a scadenza, ora ancora a 100 (alla pari)..questo è l'evento peggiore che ci si possa attendere e consiste in un "concordato fallimentare", non una ristrutturazione del debito interno ed estero poi (2002)..vincenzo

beh sì, perchè per la prima volta ora l'America ha detto che non paga, che ha smesso la politica di salvare a tutti i costi i paesi che si indebitano e quindi anche il FMI non paga ma per chi voglia comprare sul fondo guarderei più il rendimento offerto come indicatore e soprattutto occorre "la Notizia" sulle prime pagine dei giornali

Argentine Bondholders Faces Losses of 58%, Ho trovato questo articolo su Bloomberg Latin America e l'ho trovato interessante. E' possibile che gli Argentina bond abbiano ancora 20/25 punti daperdere? saluti GCuneo Buenos Aires, Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bondholders will be forced to accept losses of as much as 58 percent in a restructuring of $60 billion of debt, BNP Paribas said. An investor in the 8 3/8 percent global bond due 2003 will receive a new security worth 20.5 cents, according to calculations made by the brokerage after Argentina detailed terms of a planned debt exchange. The bond traded at 48.5 cents on the dollar yesterday when BNP made the estimate. Standard & Poor's assigned Argentina a default rating, saying the swap lowers the value of investors' holdings. ``It is clear that Argentina is engineering a controlled default or forced restructuring of its debt,'' Scott Grannis, who helps manage about $80 billion at Western Asset Management. ``This will obviously entail losses for those that bought the debt more than a few days ago.'' Investors and analysts are poring over loss estimates after Argentina said it would force domestic banks and pension funds to exchange debt for new securities that pay lower interest and have longer maturities. The bond due 2003 rose today to an offer price of 52 to yield 46.4 percent, according to J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. The bond may not fall to the level BNP Paribas estimates because some investors bet the losses will be less. Default Argentina last week conceded spending cuts had failed to help the country keep up payments on $132 billion of public debt and said it planned to default on at least $95 billion of bonds. An initial exchange of bonds is aimed at domestic investors and will be followed by a second exchange targeting international bondholders. The government is seeking to restructure debt to free up cash -- saving an estimated $4 billion in interest next year and delaying some principal payments by three years -- to revive the economy. ``This transaction would go a long way toward stabilizing the bond payments,'' said Owi Ruivivar, the BNP Paribas sovereign debt strategist who set up a model estimating losses in the swap. ``There will be a significant haircut, though.'' The initial exchange includes most bonds sold by Argentina. On average, the value of Argentina's bonds included in the exchange would fall to 25 cents on the dollar from an average of 46 cents yesterday, Paribas said. New Loans The government plans to offer bondholders new loans that pay interest of 70 percent of the original rate, with a maximum rate of 7 percent. The maturity of the new loans will be extended by three years when exchanged for bonds coming due through 2010. That means that holders will face greater losses on bonds that are closer to maturity, analysts said. The government has said the new securities will be governed by Argentine law and be backed by an unspecified amount of tax revenue, which it says will guarantee payment and make the bonds worth more. Analysts downplayed the tax collection guarantees, noting that collections have fallen after the economy contracted 6 percent in the past three years. ``The tax guarantee doesn't seem to change things,'' Ruivivar said. ``They are saying these are the new terms and we promise to pay you. How does that change it?'' The government plans to accept bonds at face value and issue new loans at face value. To work out the new price of the securities offered by Argentina, BNP Paribas assumed that they would yield the same as the bonds surrendered in the transaction. For example, the bond due 2003 might be exchanged for a loan due 2006 with an interest rate of 5.86 percent. Argentina's global bond due 2012 would be exchanged for a new 7 percent loan coming due in 2012. That would cut the price to 25.41 from a close of 42.05 yesterday, BNP Paribas said. Argentina's bonds rose with the benchmark floating rate bond due 2005 gaining 3 to an offer price of 53 to yield 47.6 percent. The bond, which is included in the government's debt exchange, was yielding about 17 percent at the end of June. The terms of the domestic swap suggest that the country may also seek significant losses from the foreign holders of its bonds, analysts said. Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo and Finance Secretary Daniel Marx are scheduled to fly tonight to New York for meetings with bankers and company officials. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ©2001 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

a proposito della dollarizzazione (rimpiazzare la moneta nazionale con il dollaro) ecco cosa è successo in Ecuador tre anni fa i tassi di interesse erano esplosi al 200% e dichiarò bancarotta ora il suo tasso bancario overnight è sceso fino al 2.6%, l'economia è cresciuta del 2.3% e l'anno prossimo si aspetta un +4% ------------------ dal WSJ di ieri --------- Ecuador solved the crisis by replacing the sucre with the dollar in 2000. The country did it despite the misgivings of the International Monetary Fund and many "experts." IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus remarked, "Dollarization was not, I must be frank, the kind of policy we would have recommended at this stage to Ecuador." Yet dollarization immediately ended the currency crisis and restored confidence in the economy. The overnight interbank interest rate immediately fell to 20% from 200%. (In September 2001 it averaged 2.6%.) The economy grew 2.3% last year and is expected to grow 4% this year and next, making it one of the few bright spots in Latin America. Inflation was 91% last year, as prices caught up to the depreciation of the currency the year before. Ecuador is now converging toward a low, U.S. level of inflation. The banking system has also been stabilized. In 1999 the government froze bank deposits and defaulted on its foreign debt. After dollarization, a growing economy and confidence in the currency allowed for freeing those deposits and resuming payment on the debt (which has been renegotiated and reduced). Ecuador's politics have long been highly polarized, and effective government is notoriously difficult. But dollarization has provided an element of stability that has helped improve the quality of economic policy --------------------------------------