Azione o Obbligazione Olivetti ? - Gzibordi ¶
By: GZ on Mercoledì 14 Novembre 2001 01:29
per fare prima copio i commenti che mi sembrano migliori sul caso
più sale olivetti in borsa e più conviene l'azione
più scende e più conviene l'obbligazione convertibile
questo è chiaro a tutti no ?
La doppia emissione è fatta per fare sì che il pubblico prenda solo le obbligazioni in modo che Provera & C prendano le azioni e aumentino il controllo aggirando la Draghi.
Chiaro no ?
E infatti a mio avviso è chiaro che Olivetti viene tenuta compressa artificialmente in borsa in questi giorni
Bene, allora dipende da quello che uno pensa del titolo nelle prossime settimane
Mi sembra che possa salire e che possa quindi convenire l'azione
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Olivetti isn’t just issuing new shares; it is also giving shareholders the option to take convertible bonds. Moreover, these convertibles are much more attractive than the ordinary shares. They pay a 3%-4% coupon, while the shares don’t pay any dividend. And the bondholders will have the right to buy ordinary shares at E1 – the same price as the new shares being issued in the rights issue.
Since conversion isn’t compulsory, the bonds have all the upside of the new shares plus an interest rate with none of the downside. In other words, shareholders would be mad to buy the new shares rather than the convertibles. It is therefore not surprising that investors think they are being dragooned into take convertibles rather than ordinary stock – so allowing Pirelli to strengthen its control on the cheap.
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Big equity issues provide an opportunity for elaborate trading games by hedge funds – often with bizarre short-term impacts on the share price. Think of British Telecom’s rights issue earlier this year, when investors shorted the stock beforehand with a view to picking up unwanted rights on the cheap. Or Orange’s initial public offering combined with an issue of convertible bonds. Funds bought the bonds but sold the shares in what is known as delta hedging. In both cases, the underlying stock was hammered in the short run.
Could Olivetti’s E4bn rights issue, which kicks off on November 5th, be a repeat performance? After all, the Italian group which controls Telecom Italia is embarking on a fiendishly complex capital raising. It isn’t just doing a rights issue on the lines of BT. It is offering both its shareholders and its convertible bondholders the right to take either new shares or convertibles – or a mix. Isn’t Olivetti running the risk of combining the worst features of both the BT and the Orange experiences?
Moreover, there is a further twist. The convertibles are unusually priced. Normally, convertible owners must pay a premium to convert into equity. In this transaction, however, both classes of rights can be picked up for the same price. That makes the convertibles more attractive. Surely this is a perfect opportunity for the hedge funds to buy the convertibles and short the shares?
Not so fast. Although the convertibles are more attractive than the shares, the added appeal isn’t as big as it once looked. That’s because Olivetti shares have rallied, making the safety net that the convertibles offer less valuable. Moreover, Olivetti shares are particularly expensive to borrow. So the classic hedging game won’t be that profitable.
Of course, if the Olivetti share price were to dive again, the dynamics could operate in reverse. The convertibles would become increasingly attractive relative to the shares and the hedging game would become more profitable. The ensuing shorting could then knock the shares further, triggering a vicious circle. But that’s not the way it currently looks.
There is, though, one final ripple. When the Olivetti shares were lower, it looked like most investors would take the convertibles rather than stock. And that would have allowed Marco Tronchetti Provera, Olivetti’s ultimate boss, to strengthen his grip on the group. After all, he and his allies are planning to take half their allotment in equity. But now that the shares aren’t looking such a bad bet, other investors may take straight equity too. Tronchetti may have been too clever for his own good.
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