CARBONE - gzibordi ¶
By: GZ on Mercoledì 06 Marzo 2002 01:19
Per i titoli sexy bisogna aspettare il prossimo sciacquone
Invece Peaobody Energy fa carbone anzi produce il 16% di tutto il carbone dell'america
e leggo da diverse parti che a causa delle regolamentazioni
ambientali sempre più restrittive l'offerta di carbone continua a calare negli USA
(ricopio un intervista a un gestore di hedge fund che spiega la storia)
inoltre il grafico a mio avviso è molto toro
perchè ha una serie di zone di accumulazione
----------------- Tontine Associates -----------------------------------------
: Is coal still a big theme for you?
A: Our position in coal is four times our position in natural gas. The supply
constraints are much greater than we expected. You have certain areas such as
West Virginia that are withholding permits and preventing people from mining new
mines.
Q: How is that good for the industry?
A: It is driving up prices. As prices go up, royalties received by state
governments go up and therefore in the end they always say yes to mining
permits. But the real story here is for the last 25 years there has been no
capital spent on the industry. In the last year you have seen a substantial
number of mining issues arise. If you start losing five-to-10 million tons in an
industry that is growing at a rate of 20-30 million tons in demand a year, it
drives up prices. Another reason we are bullish is because certain states are
promoting the use of coal. Illinois, for instance, passed a $3.5 billion bond
issue earlier this year to promote coal. In general, if you have a plant that
burns coal in Illinois, it has to use coal mined in Illinois, even though it is
generally of higher sulfur content. Peabody Energy is one of the largest owners
of Illinois reserves. Most people who talk about Peabody talk about their
wonderful Powder River Basin reserves and their Eastern coal reserves. One of
the biggest attractions of Peabody is its Illinois reserve base, which is being
ignored. Illinois coal has risen from $20 a ton to over $30 a ton, and has
stayed there all summer.
Q: What else is compelling about Peabody?
A: They're the No. 1 producer in the U.S. They produce about 185 million tons
a year of coal, so they produce somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5 tons a
share. They have done a great job of selling forward their coal. Earnings this
year will be slightly above breakeven. But because they have sold forward a good
amount of coal in 2002 and 2003, we think the company will earn $2.25-$2.50 in
2002 and $3.50-$4.00 in 2003. They've been able to pay down their debt. Their
balance sheet has improved dramatically. They'll generate about $7-$8 a share in
cash flow after tax. The upside in all of their coal properties is dramatic.
Q: Is it still a cheap stock?
A: Yes, it is. We have been buying recently at about 27. From a cash-flow
perspective you are looking at $8 a share, after tax, next year. They are
starting to build their own power plants. They are going to be situating power
plants on top of their reserves. Why truck coal 500-600 miles to burn in a power
plant and then distribute the power when you can run the power plant straight
from the coal mine? There are between six and eight new power plants proposed at
the mine mouth, and two of them are Peabody's.
