By: GZ on Giovedì 09 Agosto 2001 14:41
Sempre per dare alcuni elementi di informazione (non so ancora chi abbia ragione per oggi per cui per ora mi limito a informare)
Il report di stamattina sulla liquidità di TrimTabs nota due cose positive;
i) ci sono più aziende che comprano le proprie azioni,
Hancock, Clorox, Reynolds and Reynolds, Textron, KPMG and NVR , più di $100 millioni in 3 giorni
ii) il deflusso di liquidità dai fondi è stato di 8.4 miliardi di $ in 3 giorni e normalmente quando è così drammatico è un punto di minimo perchè indica un panico
Ovvio che può accellerare, ma è un indicatore di panico migliore degli altri
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Liquidity Update - Wednesday, August 8, 2001
On Tuesday, liquidity was negative $5.4 billion
We turn cautiously bullish with the S&P 500 at 1184 and the NDX at 1626. Two reasons.
One longer term: A steady pace of new stock buyback announcements from a cross sector of industry -- Hancock, Clorox, Reynolds and Reynolds, Textron, KPMG and NVR each announced a new buyback of more than $100 million over the past three days. The surge in buybacks says that perhaps much of corporate America - other than tech -- has enough free cash flow to buy back shares. If the trend in
buy backs continue, new cash takeovers should also rebound over the next few weeks. If that does happen, then this bullish call could be longer lasting.
The second reason is in response to the quite bearish liquidity, which spiked at - $8.4 billion over the past two days. Today, Wednesday's, sharp sell off should increase the outflow from equity funds on Thursday. New offerings soared to $3.7 billion Wednesday and the Fed said the US economy is weak. Historically, whenever the market has had a horrible stretch of liquidity -- led by hefty outflows from equity funds -- that has signaled a short-term reversal more often than not.
MUTUAL FUNDS FLOW FOR AUGUST 7, 2001
ALL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS: OUTFLOW -$2.5 BLN; NAV UP 0.1%
US
FLOW: OUTFLOW $1.7 Bln
BREADTH: NEGATIVE 34 OUT VERSUS 22 IN
NAV: UP 0.1%
INT'L
FLOW: OUTFLOW $0.8 Bln
BREADTH: NEGATIVE 22 OUT VERSUS 3 IN
NAV: DOWN 0.2%
BONDS & HYBRID: INFLOW $0.4 BLN; NAV DOWN 0.0%
LIQUIDITY CHANGES ON AUGUST 7
US FUND FLOW: -$1,750 MLN
NEW ANNOUNCED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0
COMPLETED CASH TAKEOVERS: $0
NEW OFFERINGS: $3,660 MLN
OVERALL LIQUIDITY: NEGATIVE $5,410 MLN
NEW ANNOUNCED STOCK TAKEOVERS: $22 MLN
NEW ANNOUNCED BUYBACKS: $1,128 MLN