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By: GZ on Mercoledì 30 Novembre 2005 18:05
....Questo articolo suggerisce se non erro che Drooy non è un buon investimento
per l'elevato costo di estrazione delle miniere in sud-africa.
Significa Sell Drooy?
grazie
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Riceviamo questa segnalazione di un articolo negativo sulla ^DROOY#^ che abbiamo. Questo tipo di post o mail sono molto utili e sarebbe bello che chi compra alcuni (o tutti!) i titoli suggeriti si preoccupasse di seguire qualche notizia a loro riguardo
Dato che la filosfia adottata qui è di "Molti Titoli e Medio-Piccoli" e non di pochi e noti oppure del mordi e fuggi il problema principale è che con 30 o 40 titoli suggeriti in vari portafogli ci sarebbero molte notizie da seguire
Il vantaggio costituito dal fatto che in media i titoli piccoli salgono più di quelli a grande capitalizzazione è in parte compensato a volte dal fatto che se un titolo piccolo ti sprofonda del -50% ha un impatto. Per titoli piccoli è consigliabile SEMPRE NON SUPERARE IL 5% DEL PORTAFOGLIO e se si fa così statisticamente su un orizzonte di un anno o due mi sembra che l'approccio funzioni
Ma resta che bisognerebbe preoccuparsi di ogni singolo titolo se possibile. Su ^DROOY#^, aurifero, che in Sudafrica ha problemi sia politici che con il tasso di cambio del rand. al momento non so ma aggiorno entro domani
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Four Gold Stocks to Avoid
Wednesday November 23, 6:00 am ET
By Parvathy Krishnan, CFA
Gold prices have been skyrocketing recently, continuing the secular bull market in gold that started in 2001. After starting the year at $420 per ounce, gold prices have rallied to within shouting distance of $500 per ounce, levels not seen since the late 1980s. Not surprisingly, gold bugs
feel vindicated, and the metal and its producers have been getting a lot of attention from the financial press and potential investors.
So, is is a time to invest in gold, gold stocks, gold mutual funds, or
gold exchange-traded funds? My colleague Michele Gambera has some
interesting thoughts on this subject. As value-oriented investors, we at
Morningstar believe in buying assets at a discount to their intrinsic value
and waiting patiently for prices to recover. The metal has been justifiably
touted, though, as an inflation hedge and portfolio diversifier. However,
gold stocks, while highly correlated with gold, carry additional baggage
that may offset some of their diversification and inflation-hedge benefits.
As I've written before, gold miners are plagued with rising costs, lack of
control over the price of their product, and few product differentiation
opportunities. It follows that most gold producers have no competitive
advantage, or economic moat, and their returns on invested capital trail
their cost of capital.
Historically high prices, no moat, poor returns on invested capital--these
are all reasons we find the sector in general quite unattractive at this
time. It is not surprising that most gold stocks today get our 1-star
rating.
Having said that, there are a few gold producers of whom we are particularly
wary because they expose the investor to additional risks for one of several
reasons. First, these stocks tend to have higher-than-average operational
risk. This is a characteristic of small, undiversified producers whose
output relies on a small group of mines or even a single mine. Because this
is the case, a small operational glitch could severely affect overall
production and revenue. Second, extraction costs at these companies tend to
be above average. High costs are very undesirable in a price-taker's market
like gold because it means producers will be among the first to incur losses
if commodity prices take a dive. Indeed, even with the price of gold at the
current high levels, three of these four companies we have singled out below
have posted losses so far this year. Finally, our less desirable companies
tend to have operations in politically unstable countries, adding
geopolitical risk.
Cambior (AMEX:CBJ - News)
Three of Cambior's four mines (one in Guyana and two in Canada) are
high-cost operations. Costs at the fourth mine--Rosebel in Suriname--are not
substantially below average. The company's extraction costs in 2004 were
$257 an ounce, compared with the industry average of about $250. Cambior is
also subject to a high level of operational risk due to its small number of
mines. For example, milling operations have been suspended at Rosebel this
week due to a leakage. Because Rosebel produces about half of the company's
gold, a stoppage here, even if temporary, will have a big adverse impact on
overall production and revenue. Finally, Cambior's debt--at 12% of total
capital--is relatively high for a gold producer. Paying down debt during
flush times, like now, is considered a best practice in the mining industry.
However, Cambior has been only marginally profitable so far in 2005, and the
company has not brought down its debt level during the year. When gold
prices fall and profits turn to losses, servicing this debt might become a
burden the firm cannot bear, given its high operation costs.
Bema Gold (AMEX:BGO - News)
Bema operates two mines--one in Russia and one in South Africa. While the
economics of the Russian mine are respectable with slightly below-average
cash costs, the South African operation has been a drag on profits and cash
flow since Bema started mining there in 2003. However, instead of improving
profitability at its existing operations, the company is intent on raising
production from about 290,000 ounces projected for 2005 to 1 million ounces.
Given the lack of cash flow from operations, Bema has been forced to raise
additional equity and debt capital to fund its exploration and expansion
projects. As a result, Bema has one of the weakest balance sheets in the
gold mining industry. Negative free cash flow, a weak balance sheet, and
uncertain prospects make an investment in Bema little more than a
speculative bet on the company's future, in our opinion.
Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL - News)
Given all the risks at Hecla--a relatively small production base in
unattractive countries, future production not growing as much as expected,
commodity prices not cooperating, as well as more financing and
environmental charges--an investment in these shares remains highly
speculative.
DRDGold (NasdaqSC:DROOY - News)
Mining gold in South Africa is a high-cost business that started more than a
century ago. As more gold is mined, mines get deeper and costs generally
rise. In addition, older technology and strong labor unions in South Africa
also contribute significantly to the high costs prevalent in that country.
Even by South African standards, DRDGold is saddled with relatively high
cost and older mines. While recent efforts at operational improvements mean
that DRDGold is less of a "cigar-butt investment" than before, we do not think the company is out of the woods. Even with all the improvements, we still expect the company's cash costs to be more than $300 per ounce,
compared with the industry average of around $250 per ounce. For DRDGold to consistently turn a profit, gold must trade at prices comfortably above the firm's operating costs and relevant currency-exchange rates must cooperate.
As a commodity producer, DRDGold has little influence over either of these factors because it is a price-taker in both the gold and the
foreign-exchange markets.
Should gold prices fall precipitously in the next year or two, something that is not inconceivable, these companies will be among the first to
suffer.
...
