ecco l'intervista a Dick McCabe del 6 febbraio, il capo analista tecnico di Merril Lynch e uno dei migliori sulla piazza dice: i) gli indici scendono ancora un poco ma non fino ai minimi di settembre ii) se sei orientatato al breve termine cerchi di vendere qualcosa (parlava il 6/2) qui e di ricomprare quando sei su un 62% circa della correzione, insomma più in basso iii) se sei più un investitore aspetti iv) energia e materie prima, chimica e cartario non sono malecome settori (ciclici pesanti) il tutto su base puramente di analisi tecnica -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Richard McCabe: I think the catalyst for the pullback may very well have been the accounting worries you referred to. But I think the market actually is now starting a pullback, or, in a sense, a retest of those climactic lows that the averages made back in late September. It's taken a while, but really there hasn't been much net progress since November in the averages. They've kind of rolled over and I think we're going back down for a testing phase in the course of the next month or two. Tyler Mathisen/CNBC: How close will we get to the September 20 lows? Richard McCabe: I suspect not all the way to them. I think the averages might retrace one-half to two-thirds of the advance they had from late September to early January. That would translate to about an 8800 to 9000 Dow Jones Industrial Average risk, and perhaps about a 1650 to 1700 Nasdaq risk. Maria Bartiromo/CNBC: So what do you advise investors to do in that environment? Richard McCabe: I would treat it in two ways. For those who are very, very short-term focused, trading-type investors — if that's not an oxymoron — I would suggest they hold some cash, maybe even raise a bit of cash if there is bounce in the next few days or a week. And then have that cash available at what might be a better oversold low in March or April. But for those who are really investors — medium to long term focused — I would be inclined not to raise a lot of cash but rather to use any cash available on a price scaled-down purchase basis between now and March or April. Tyler Mathisen/CNBC: Would you look at any particular sectors now as undervalued, and, conversely, any that are particularly overvalued? Richard McCabe: On the positive side, ones that look favorable technically: I do think a lot of the energy stocks, that are starting to bottom out after their declines last year, look promising. Oil services and some of the major integrated oils, for example, look good. Also, I think some stocks in the industrial basic-materials area are acting pretty well. They may be anticipating economic recovery down the road. I think papers and forest products and many specialty chemicals look quite good. Maria Bartiromo/CNBC: Dick, Cisco just came out with its second quarter results. Any thoughts on Cisco or technology overall? It appears the last three months of the year have seen a bit of a pickup. Do you buy into it? Richard McCabe: We've had a nice rebound of tech in last quarter of last year and some give-back recently. I think there will be a further phase of rally in tech from the spring testing low into summer — kind of the second step of a two-step recovery. When that is over, it may be a difficult road for tech for next year or two. My guess is that the best 10% or 15% of the stocks will go up, net/net, in the next couple of years. The worst 10% or 15% will go back down and make lower lows next year versus this year. And the other 70% or 80% will go sideways like the 'Nifty Fifty' growth stocks did back in the mid-1970s to the early 80s. It's going to take a while to make a major base in the whole tech sector.