Niente IPO in Germania

Spiacente, ma i dati sul sentiment in Germania non sembrano poi così propedeutici ad un rialzo... Nemax Sentiment: Rialzisti a +10%, domina la volatilità di Alessandro Broi 18 febbraio 2002 15.12 Ottimisti vs. pessimisti su Nemax-50 – Indagine del 14 febbraio 2002, 1075 investitori intervistati Bullish Bearish Neutrali Totale Privati 46% 26% 28% 38% Istituzionali 55% 21% 24% 62% Totale 52%+10%23%-16% 25%+6% 100% (Fonte: Deutsche Boerse AG) La scorsa settimana ha visto il Nemax-50 recuperare dai recenti minimi, sia pure timidamente. Il sentiment del mercato, grazie alla ripresa dei corsi azionari, è migliorato invece in maniera considerevole, a testimonianza della volatilità, indice di incertezza e disorientamento tra gli investitori, di questa fase di mercato. Questo ottimismo non può quindi essere visto come una rinnovata fiducia circa gli sviluppi futuri dell'Indice delle blue chips del Nuovo Mercato tedesco, quanto piuttosto come rientro degli effetti emotivi e delle paure che il caso Enron aveva scatenato. Nemmeno l'apertura del procedimento d'insolvenza a carico dell'operatore di infrastrutture di rete Carrier 1 (21° fallimento del Neuer Markt), ha contrastato questo fisiologico rimbalzo. In effetti, non si può dire che non vi siano previsioni tenebrose circa le prospettive future per i titoli hi-tech; alcuni preconizzano persino una caduta ai minimi dello scorso settembre, per cui gli speculatori sono pronti a vendere o ad andare short in ogni momento, per poi ricoprirsi velocemente e provocare i rimbalzi delle quotazioni come quelli della scorsa ottava, con l'effetto di disorientare gli investitori.

Secondo il principale giornale finanziario tedesco il sentiment ha toccato ora un nuovo minimo con il fallimento negli ultimi giorni di due grosse OPV e non ci saranno più altre offerte di carta ora nei prossimi mesi a Francoforte Perchè è importante ? Perchè la borsa dipende da domanda e offerta Questa è l'offerta. Ed è in calo. Inoltre leggere i titoli dei giornali che dicono: "...Investor Sentiment Hits Rock Bottom.." è quello che occorre ================= dall' HandelsBlatt ====================== Investor Sentiment Hits Rock Bottom HB/svu FRANKFURT. The decision by financial-services firm BHW Holding AG on Friday to abandon a one billion euros secondary stock placement has dashed all hopes of a recovery on the German equity market before the second half of the year. It also doesn't bode well for plans by Deutsche Telekom to partially float its mobile unit T-Mobile in June or November. Following the scrapped initial public offering of Spain's Private Media on Frankfurt's Neuer Markt for growth shares earlier this month, BHW's cancellation represents the second failed attempt this year to place a larger-sized issue on the German market. The defeat for BHW and its lead-managers, Dresdner Kleinwort Benson and Credit Suisse First Boston, now put the chances of other planned placements up until the end of spring at virtually zero. "The mood among investors has sunk so low that a new issue is unlikely to materialize in the next four months," said René Parmantier at Gontard & Metallbank. Roland Welzbacher at Concord Effekten agrees, saying that he does not expect to see any large-volume issues any time soon. The latest developments make T-Mobile's planned IPO more likely to take place in November rather than June, the month preferred by Telekom chief executive Ron Sommer. A June placement would need an "extreme change in sentiment in favor of telecoms stocks", said Carmen Weber, fund manager at Metzler Investment. But this was highly unlikely, she said. The performance of Deutsche Telekom's shares or of T-Mobile's U.S. rival Sprint – which has lost more than half of its value since the start of the year – provide no indication that a change in trend is imminent. Weber said it was even conceivable that T-Mobile's IPO will be postponed to next year. People close to Deutsche Telekom said Friday that the group continued to target June or November as the preferred months for the placement. Telekom's optimism may be based on the fact that the decisions by both Private Media and BHW to pull the plug were based on reasons that do not necessarily apply to other flotation candidates. "BHW did not offer anything new to fuel interest in the shares," said Rolf Drees at Union Invest. Sources familiar with the offering said institutional investors had not even been ready to pay 18.50-19 euros per share, a hefty discount to the fair value of 25 euros estimated by the banks marketing the placement. Shares in BHW have been falling to 19 euros from 33 euros since December. Following Friday's cancellation, they soared 16% to 21.98 euros, an indication, Drees argues, that investors who betted on the stock's fall after the placement rushed to cover their positions. Such investors borrow stock and sell it, hoping to buy it back later at a cheaper price. Even if BHW's case is not representative, as Weber concedes, and even if "it is always a difficult undertaking to collect 1.4 billion euros for a M-Dax stock", as Michael Bednar at UBS Warburg points out, Friday's cancellation is still an indication of just how poor investor sentiment is at present. Earlier hopes that the German market would see 40 to 50 new share offerings this year have been dashed. But Drees at Union Invest still expects the number of offerings to reach two digits in 2002. "For this to happen, we need profitable companies with convincing management, a good story, and a good explanation of how proceeds are to be used," he said