Pochi Vogliono le Put - gzibordi

Date Broker Chart Co. Name To From Target 1/25/02 Stephens Inc. IRF International Rectifier Outperform Neutral $38 1/25/02 Deutsche Banc AB TRW TRW, Inc. Buy N/A $50 1/25/02 Deutsche Banc AB IGT International Game Technology Strong Buy Buy $80 1/25/02 Goldman Sachs PFE Pfizer Inc. Market Outperformer Market Performer N/A 1/25/02 Robertson Stephens FDC First Data Corporation Buy N/A $95 1/25/02 JPMorgan ATK Alliant Techsystems Buy Market Perform $88 1/25/02 Deutsche Banc AB ESI ITT Educational Services Strong Buy Buy $48 1/25/02 ABN Amro MBG Mandalay Resort Group Add Hold $30 1/25/02 RBC Capital Markets AMAT Applied Materials Outperform Sector Perform $50 1/25/02 Wachovia Securities ATK Alliant Techsystems Strong Buy Buy $100 1/25/02 Thomas Weisel Partners INFA Informatica Corp. Buy Market Perform $18 1/25/02 Banc Of America SII Smith International Strong Buy Buy $75 1/25/02 Banc Of America NBR Nabors Industries Strong Buy Buy $50 1/25/02 Banc Of America BJS BJ Services Company Strong Buy Buy $37 1/25/02 Merrill Lynch & Co. BEN Franklin Resources I-T Buy N/A $44 1/25/02 Goldman Sachs PVTL Pivotal Corp. Market Outperform Market Perform $12 1/25/02 Goldman Sachs PMCS PMC-Sierra Inc. Recommended List N/A $30 1/25/02 ABN Amro PPE Park Place Entertainment Add Hold $13 1/25/02 ABN Amro MGG MGM MIRAGE Buy Hold $39 1/25/02 Friedman Billings Ramsey DCTM Documentum Inc. Accumulate Market Perform N/A 1/24/02 Merrill Lynch & Co. PVTL Pivotal Corporation Buy N/A N/A 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets AMGN Amgen Inc. Outperform-Average Sector Perform-Average $85 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets NBTY NBTY Inc. Outperform-Above Average Sector Perform $18 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets ATRX Atrix Laboratories Outperform-Speculative Sector Perform $33 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp. Outperform Sector Perform $60 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets MONE MatrixOne, Inc. Outperform-Above Average Sector Perform-Above Average $22 1/24/02 RBC Capital Markets WEBM WebMethods Inc. Outperform-Above Average N/A $30 1/24/02 CIBC World Markets ISSX Internet Security Sys. Buy Hold $39 1/24/02 Deutsche Banc AB WWY William Wrigley Jr. Buy Market Perform $59 1/24/02 Deutsche Banc AB TSTN Turnstone Systems Buy Market Perform N/A 1/24/02 C.E. Unterberg, Towbin AZPN Aspen Technology Strong Buy Buy $30 1/24/02 Raymond James ABC AmerisourceBergen Strong Buy Buy $68 1/24/02 Prudential Financial MUSE Micromuse Inc. Buy Hold $18 1/24/02 Banc Of America GD General Dynamics Strong Buy N/A $100 1/24/02 Banc Of America JWN Nordstrom, Inc. Buy N/A N/A 1/24/02 ABN Amro SEBL Siebel Systems Buy Add $45 1/24/02 Merrill Lynch & Co. MGG MGM MIRAGE Strong Buy Buy $38 1/24/02 Wachovia Securities SEBL Siebel Systems Strong Buy N/A $45 1/24/02 AG Edwards DKWD D&K HealthCare Resources Strong Buy Buy N/A 1/24/02 Wachovia Securities ISSX Internet Security Systems Buy N/A $38 1/24/02 Friedman Billings Ramsey ICBC Independence Community Bank Buy Market Perform $30 1/24/02 Raymond James QTRN Quintiles Transnational Corp. Strong Buy N/A $21 1/24/02 JP Morgan DD Dupont Buy L-T Buy N/A 1/24/02 USB Piper Jaffray DSPG DSP Group, Inc. Market Outperform Market Perform N/A 1/24/02 Goldman Sachs CDWC CDW Computer Centers Recommended List Market Outperformer $64 User Agreement /

Ci sono arrivato un po' casualmente e non saprei che credito dare a questa indagine ma qui al 4/1 i gestori erano quasi tutti positivi sugli USA. http://www.blueetf.com/news/sentiment/sentiment.asp

se lo sapessi avrei una posizione aperta sugli S&P che al momento invece non ho comunque, preso a sè, fa pensare a un esplosione al ribasso imminente perchè effettivamente il livello assoluto così basso indica che nessuno sta proteggendosi conmprando put

mi scusi Zibordi ma non ho capito la conclusione: ora per lei indica un buy o un sell ?

Grazie Zibo, non so come faccia a sapere sempre tutto....sei un grande!!

il modo in cui molti usano l'indicatore è la solita media a 10 giorni e in termini di direzione e se comincia a scendere è un BUY e se invece comincia a salire un SELL poi però c'è anche la questione del LIVELLO ASSOLUTO dell'indicatore e in genere si dice che se è troppo basso porta a un esplosione al ribasso ma come si vede dal grafico a 25 giorni che ho messo prima, negli ultimi mesi è difficile dire quale sia il livello troppo basso o troppo alto della media degli acquisti di put CONCLUSIONE: è vero che sono molto bassi e questo indica un esplosione imminente in genere ma al momento la media a 10 giorni ha girato in basso ****************************************************** The Option Strategist http://www.optionstrategist.com The put-call ratios are still not giving any convincing signals. The "normal" equity-only ratio is barely beginning to decline and that's a budding buy signal. The breakdown of that ratio into its NYSE and NASD components shows that they are both now on buy signals as well. The weighted put-call ratio is still going sideways, though -- not indicating any clear direction at all. As for other broad market put-call ratios, there are other recent buy signals from both the normal and weighted ratios on the S&P 500 futures options. Meanwhile, the weighted ratios in $OEX, $NDX and QQQ all remain on sell signals. Meanwhile, volatility ($VIX) is hovering near 25. It is above its lows. When $VIX makes a low, that is often bearish for the market in general, and that low more or less coincided with the recent market top. However, our other volatility measure (using the options of the stocks that comprise $OEX) is at a new post-September low. It is a truer measure in this case, I believe, and is telling us that option buyers are in retreat and sellers are confident -- a situation which usually leads to a (downside) explosion.

questa è la media a 25 giorni del valore in dollari delle Put trattate a NY molto molto bassa

Equity option activity on the CBOE yesterday had 275,407 put contracts trade compared to 712,495 call contracts. The resultant 0.387 put/call ratio marked a historic low level. Assuming the reading is correct (the CBOE already corrected it once), this marks the lowest level since August 31, 2000. The SPX peaked the following day and began a sharp decline that was not reversed until October 19, 2000 – some 200 points later. The reversal was short-lived, however. This extremely optimistic reading has forced the 21-day moving average down to 0.588.