By: GZ on Lunedì 27 Ottobre 2003 12:33
Questo è il riassunto della chiamata di giovedì di Rick Bensignor, il capo analista tecnico di Morgan Stanley a NY per un cedimento di -100 punti (-9%) degli S&P 500 nel prossimo mese.
A differenza dei :"....se supera 1.040 allora va a 1.050, ma se
scendesse sotto 1.000 allora potrebbe scendere a 980 ....." degli
analisti nostrani, questa è una chiamata senza ambiguità:
per Morgan Stanley dal punto di vista tecnico l'S&P 500
deve scendere fino a 940 (oggi siamo a 1.030).
Oltre al Sequential e Combo Bensignor
usa molto il "Trend Factor" di De Mark
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....why he believes the low 1050s represented the S&P's top: One prime reason, on Oct. 3, Tom DeMark's Sequential Indicator hit a sell signal at 1053.30, even if followers of the signal never got stopped out above that level. Similar developments occurred for the Nasdaq futures and SOX, he noted.
Also, there's "major resistance" at 1050 using Gann analysis and next week is the 55th week since last October's lows; 55 is a Fibonacci number and one that has helped call potential turns in the past, Bensignor noted.
"But the most important reason for why we believe the market may very well have found the near-term high at 1052 comes from looking at a model developed by Tom DeMark, named TD TrendFactors," Bensignor wrote. "This model measures market increments or declines in multiples of 5.56%. I have used this model in the past to find key inflection points...what I discovered over the past couple of days is what led me to the negative call.
Previously, Bensignor had thought the market would rally "seven levels upward" off the March lows without even one 5.56% down move from its weekly close. That seventh level would take the index to 1096 (hence his previous forecast of the S&P moving into the 1075-1100 range).
However, upon reexamining the bottom in July 2002, he found there was a six-level move down and not a seventh-level move, as previously assumed.
This is more easily seen on a chart (and there are several in the piece) but the point is Bensignor believes there will be an up move from the March lows symmetrical to the fall to the July lows. "Thus, we now believe the S&P 500 will only make a six-level move up, not seven as previously anticipated," he wrote. "Six levels up is, coincidentally or not, the same 1052 level we found resistance at in our earlier charts."
The subsequent move down "should fall at least two levels," which gives a target of 940, he concluded, noting all countertrend bounces in recent years have been at least three levels (again, it's an issue of expecting symmetry in the charts during this countertrend decline