I fondamentali, ovvero quei dati indispensabili per il trading su barre orarie, con orizzonte temporale di 2 giorni. (cfr. Zibordi ;-) ----------------------- Global: The Recovery Bubble Stephen Roach (New York) Wow! In a breathless leap of faith, the stock market has made a remarkable bet on the coming economic recovery. So, too, has the bond market. In one important respect, the bet is a good one: I have yet to see a recession that wasn’t followed by an economic recovery. The debate, of course, is not over the inevitability of recovery. Instead, the issues pertain more to the timing and subsequent vigor of the coming upturn. The financial markets are screaming for an imminent "V." I’ll continue to take the other side of that call. Here’s why. First of all, lest there be any mistaking the message from the markets, consider the following: As of the 5 December close, the S&P 500 was up 21% from its 21 September lows. The cyclical technology bet is particularly impressive. The Morgan Stanley High Tech Index is up an astounding 54% over this same interval, identical to gains in the semiconductor (SOX) index and far outdistancing the still-impressive 31% increase of the Cyclical Index. Steve Galbraith, our US equity strategist, reckons that technology stocks are now selling at 50 times forward 2002 earnings -- identical to the valuation excess hit at Nasdaq 5,000. Sure, there’s always the possibility that consensus earnings estimates are too low. But as Steve has also noted, even a three-standard-deviation positive surprise in tech earnings (unprecedented in the long history of the market) would leave the multiple of these stocks at about a 50% premium to the overall market. If it looks like a bubble, feels like a bubble, and acts like a bubble, maybe it actually is one … again. [...]