By: GZ on Venerdì 30 Gennaio 2004 19:09
Nortel +20% oggi dopo l'annuncio di risultati molto molto
sopra le previsioni ieri dopo la chiusura.
Mi ricordo un anno fa che si discuteva
se il governo canadese l'avrebbe salvata oppure
se sarebbe fallita.
Adesso è tornata su da un dollaro e rotti fin
sopra 7 dollari e il business va benone
Ieri sera stavo per provare un acquisto al volo di ^NT#^
subito prima dell'annuncio e poi non ho avuto
la tempra perchè gli annunci di utili sembrano un
poco una roulette, ma leggevo da mesi di questo
qua sotto che è molto bravo su TheStreet.com
e predica che la devi comprare e tenere e comprare
e tenere perchè il trend di spesa delle telecom
dopo tre anni di depressione è ripreso. E aveva ragione
leggere qui sotto i numeri che sta facendo Nortel.
Che si deve dire.. bisogna seguirle queste cose
e cambiano sempre molto in fretta
(e ci sono 50 milioni di pezzi venduti short da ribassisti...)
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Nortel Earnings Call -- 5 p.m.
01/29/04 07:25 AM EST
Jay Somaney anaylzes the Nortel earnings call at 5 p.m. EST.
Jay Somaney is a partner and fund manager with TSG Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in Beverly Hills, Calif., and Plano, Texas.
Nortel (NT:NYSE) steps up with its earnings report this afternoon. The Street is expecting earnings of a tuppence a share on revenues of $2.45 billion for the December quarter. For March, the numbers come down to a penny a share (from heaven) on $2.34 billion in revenues. One thing is clear: Nortel has made a remarkable turnaround since the dog days of late 2002, both in terms of share price performance and in terms of its day-to-day business operations.
I am sure longtime readers will remember what I had said about NT and its brethren over a year or more ago. "Higher next year this time than where you see it now." The buzz I am hearing is that the quarter is "all good." However, will it be good enough? That's for Mr. Chuckles to decide.
Another fact I want to point out is that despite the stock being up almost 15 times from its abyss (in October 2002), there has been very little major selling from insiders. So, what does that tell you? It tells me a lot; read my quote from above. However, I do wish it was in the red going into the call, like it was earlier in the day. It's all about expectations in the short run, no?
Yowza, NT absolutely blows them away big time. The company reported EPS of 11 cents on revenue of $2.83 billion. The EPS numbers include $178 million in onetime beneficial items. Without the onetime benefits, net income would have been $321 million vs. the $499 million reported.
For the March quarter, the company stated in the press release that revenues will be down on a sequential basis, per Street expectations.
The company generated $400 million in cash in the December quarter. The company saw strong growth in VoIP and 3G wireless business. Wireline business was also very strong, with 9% growth sequentially.
NT is saying that there is some "real momentum" building in its enterprise segment.
Overall market in 2004 should grow in the low single digits. Enterprise should be up 5% and the carrier space will be less than 5% globally.
GMs will be in the mid-40s going forward.
Tax rate will be minimal going forward and maybe be up to 10% in 2004.
Net inventory was $980 million.
A/R was $3.2 billion.
DSOs were 74 days, up seven days from the prior quarter.
Q: Did you see a big benefit from budget-flush-type event?
A: A little bit, but not much.
Q: What was B2B for the quarter?
A: Every business had a B2B at or above 1, and it netted out to 1.05 companywide.
Q: Any pricing pressure in enterprise?
A: In some segments yes, but mainly they are looking for value and productivity (so not much).
Q: Is VoIP for real?
A: It is very real and will really pick up in 2004. (Like I have been saying, this is YOV (Year of VoIP) bar none, what the wannabes say notwithstanding. LOL.)
Q: Could the March quarter be flat sequentially?
A: Seasonality is a fact of life. So typically the first couple of weeks in January are slow. There is no fiber being laid in North America and Canada due to the inclement weather and things in China are very slow due to the Chinese New Year holiday that falls in January. So for us, seasonality is not an excuse but a fact of life (plausible).
Q: Can you give us any idea on where the revenues will come in?
A: I just won't go into guidance. Won't even give you a range.
Q: Any 10% customers?
A: No, we didn't have any. Haven't had a 10% customer in two years.
OK, the call is over. What can I say? A blowout number whichever way you try to slice and dice it. It was better than all good in every aspect, except the company's reluctance to give guidance was an irritant, at least to me. Although they do not usually give guidance, leaving the analysts to earn their paychecks on their coverage of NT. An important fact to remember is that there are over 50 million shares short, although a small percentage of the float should add to the fun and games tomorrow. ver and out. Peace.
OK, the call is over. What can I say? A blowout number whichever way you try to slice and dice it. It was better than all good in every aspect, except the company's reluctance to give guidance was an irritant, at least to me. However, the company does not usually give guidance, leaving the analysts to earn their paychecks on their coverage of NT. An important fact to remember is that there are over 50 million shares short, although a small percentage of the float should add to the fun and games tomorrow. Over and out. Peace.
