I Pessimisti sono Irrazionali - Gzibordi
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By: GZ on Martedì 06 Novembre 2001 22:40
Se qualcuno lo volesse un poco tradurre...
perchè non si poteva dire meglio
Ken Fisher gestisce sui 20 mila miliardi di lire e ha scritto dei libri di peso
Il succo è : la probabilità che dopo due anni negativi anche il terzo anno sia negativo per la borsa americana è quasi zero se si analizza la storia
E il fatto che si parli di mercato orso secolare ora è un fatto fisiologico, succede sempre dopo due anni che la borsa è negativa
--------------------- Ken Fisher ----------
Let's turn to the pessimists. They contend for various spurious reasons that we're not in a cyclical bear market but a secular one.
In other words, we're doomed to two or three more years of continuous downward movement.
This view surfaces in volume late in every bear market. It is normal and precedes the final wave--the Death of Equities stories that we will soon see, about why stocks will never, ever be a good deal again.
At that point the optimists fade away and the future looks grim to everyone, creating the bottom.
The pessimists, however, are simply beyond rational.
Both 2000 and 2001 were negative years.
History shows that, using correctly calculated, cap-weighted indexes, the U.S. has suffered just three instances where the market fell more than two years in a row.
And those times don't resemble our day.
Take the most recent one, the war-jittery 1939-41 bear market. Equally evil, Osama bin Laden has not the multinational coalition behind him that Adolph Hitler had.
The other two long periods, 1929-32 and the 1830s, featured an imploding money supply. That's not the case today.
We've had many eras with two years down, three years up, two years down, one year up--a decade or more when stocks sawtoothed and overall ended up going nowhere. Some people are predicting that we're going into another such period, last seen from 1966 to 1982.
Overall flat, yet capable of driving investors crazy.
Maybe it will happen again, maybe it won't.
Edited by - gzibordi on 11/6/2001 21:44:36