Trappola - massimo


  By: gianlini on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 16:17

bisnonno ferroviere


  By: GZ on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 15:39

la saggezza del nonno contadino ?


  By: gianlini on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 14:18

non si può solo risparmiare è una regola basilare in realtà sono tutte partite di conto a somma zero le mele che raccolgo oggi non le mangio ma le presto a te che le mangi subito senza averle raccolte, con la promessa che un giorno le raccoglierai anche tu e me le ridarrai, mentre io starò al fresco delle frasche.... gli argentini sono ancora sotto le frasche, purtroppo....


  By: GZ on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 13:56

sì ma dal 1996 al 1999 il tasso di risparmio era tra il 2% e lo zero, l'effetto non è immediato, può richiedere un anno o due intanto il dollaro è risalito da 1.02 a 0.97 euro, l'america sta di nuovo ricevendo soldi dall'estero e quindi il risparmio dei giapponesi e dei tedeschi finanzia i consumi americani l'importante è che nel mondo qualcuno risparmi e qualcuno consumi Modificato da - gz on 8/8/2002 11:57:8


  By: Joseph on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 13:32

Ultima view del chief economist di Morgan Stanley, dove viene analizzato anche il tasso di risparmio,comparandolo anche su basi storiche: Global: Rearranging the Deck Chairs Stephen Roach (New York) In my post-bubble vision of the US economy, a purging of the excesses of the 1990s is vital before America can resume a more sustainable and vigorous economic expansion. The consumer is the key sticking point in that regard. With record debt loads, low saving rates, steep losses in equity portfolios, and looming retirement obligations, I continue to believe that a long overdue retrenchment of the American consumer is a necessary ingredient of the post-bubble purging process that lies ahead. On the surface, there appear to be signs that the consumer is making progress on the road to consolidation. Most notably, this shows up in the form of a recent increase in the personal saving rate -- an increase that was made all the more impressive by upward revisions from government statisticians as part of the latest benchmark revision of the national income accounts. After having hit a low of 0.3% in October 2001, the rate has subsequently risen to 4.2% as of June 2002. While that is a stunning increase in a scant eight months, it hardly depicts a consumer awash in savings. By way of comparison, the pre-bubble personal saving rate stood at 6.6% in November 1994; moreover, over the 45-year period, 1950-94, the rate averaged 8.6%. In other words, while the personal saving rate has risen from rock-bottom levels not seen since 1932-33, it remains decidedly subpar when compared with the modern-day, pre-bubble history of the US economy. Still, some improvement is better than no improvement at all. Or is it? A few numbers put this shift in a somewhat different light. Over the eight-month period, October 2001 to June 2002, the US Commerce Department now estimates that personal taxes declined by $180 billion, or 13.7% (not at an annual rate); this, of course, is solely a by-product of the first installment of the recently enacted Economic Security and Worker Assistance Act of 2001. Over the same eight-month period, current-dollar personal consumption expenditures rose 2.3% (3.4% annualized). Yet, had it not been for the tax cut (and personal taxes had simply held at their October 2001 level), the personal saving rate would have been only 2.0% in June 2002, less than half the actual figure (4.2%). In other words, more than half the increase in the personal saving rate over the past eight months is traceable to the recent tax cut. Consequently, stripping out the impact of this policy stimulus reveals an American consumer that has made very little progress in curtailing his or her spending habits in order to boost an otherwise anemic saving rate. All this is another way of saying that this transfer of saving from the public to the private sector has done nothing to improve the national saving rate -- a key macro building block for long-term economic growth. While this has been a long-standing problem in the United States, it has taken a notable turn for the worse in the post-bubble era. To be sure, personal saving (as measured in the national income accounts) rose some $93 billion in the two years following the Nasdaq peak in 1Q00 -- a seemingly rational response of the consumer to the loss of equity wealth. But this was more than offset by a whopping $361 billion deterioration in federal government saving, as the budget surplus disappeared into thin air and reemerged in the form of the once-vanquished deficit. A $70-billion deterioration in the fiscal position of state and local governments over the same two-year period only compounds the problem. Looking through this important shift in the mix of aggregate saving, the gross national saving rate is estimated to have declined from 18.8% as a share of GDP when the bubble popped in 1Q00 to just 15.6% in 1Q02. That equals the previous record low hit in 1993 and represents a stunning shortfall from the average national saving rate of 19.3% that prevailed over the 50-year period, 1950-99. (Note: These figures are presented on a "gross" saving basis including depreciation, or consumption of fixed capital; over the past two years; the erosion of government saving was somewhat larger on a "net" basis. Moreover, while personal saving is estimated to have increased another $36 billion in 2Q02, comparable data are not yet available for government saving.) Cordiali saluti joseph


  By: DOTT JOSE on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 12:26

the company showed a $22 million cash drain in the fourth quarter, compared with a cash inflow of $77 million in the year-ago period. According to the Portales report, Ryan calculates the cash drain is even worse if effective borrowing that needs to be done to carry out loan sales are factored in. Ryan estimates that, with those adjustments, AmeriCredit experienced an effective cash drain of $117 million in the fourth quarter. ---- SE HO ben capito il cash flow e' negativo per 117 mln invece dei 22 citati da acf a casusa dei soldi presi a prestito per vendere i mutui ??


  By: rael on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 11:33

"... alla fine il rialzo sarà eccezionale..." Massimo, cosa ne dici di piantarla con questi proclami da guerriglia e usare un po' di sana prudenza, visto le esperienze precedenti?


  By: massimo on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 02:08

Questo post forse dovevo metterlo tra l'humour. Oggi JP morgan fa perdere il 25% a acf per il suo dowgrade relativo alle preoccupazioni sul credito di una società che non ha debiti e guadagna forte, e proprio oggi si apprendono preoccupazioni sui suoi debiti: imminente revisione al ribasso del rating sul debito dei colossi bancari Citigroup (C - Nyse) e J.P. Morgan (JPM - Nasdaq).

Trappola - massimo  

  By: massimo on Giovedì 08 Agosto 2002 01:45

ACF 23% dei titoli in mano a insiders + 95% in mano a istituzionali = lo short è stato acquistato dagli istituzionali. Potrei snocciolarvi decine di pagine di prove sulla bontà del titolo, invece prendete per buona la raccomandazione e poi unite all'equzione di cui sopra il fatto che oggi viene downgradata + come da grafico sotto si vedono impressionanti pressioni in aquisto di istituzionali = gli short sono in trappola e alla fine il rialzo sarà eccezionale.

Credito al Consumo - gz  

  By: GZ on Mercoledì 07 Agosto 2002 19:01

In attesa di una risoluzione al rialzo o al ribasso degli indici di borsa di oggi (spiace ma l'85% dei titoli al momento seguono gli indici) leggo qui sulla situazione del credito al consumo americano. Come noto negli ultimi 12 mesi mentre italiani, tedeschi, giapponesi non spendevano, mentre gli investimenti della aziende crollavano causa la saturazione delle telecom, pc e cellulari solo l'eroico consumatore americano ha preso su di sè il compito di rimpinzarsi di ogni possibile ben di dio Negli ultimi due mesi ad es grazie all'espandersi del credito al consumo e di quello legato agli immobili altri 40-50 miliardi di dollari sono stati messi a disposizione. Non è una cifra piccola. Il credito al consumo è salito del 6% e quello per immobili dell'11% negli ultimi 12 mesi. Questo sotto è un articolo di giornale e non un report e non menziona che il tasso di risparmio è salito da 0% nel 2000 al 4%. Ma resta che qualcuno deve dare il cambio a questa povera gente. A questo proposito i titoli come Capital One, Americredit di cui si parla qua a fianco, Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac (cioè le società che fanno questi prestiti) sono un indicatore forse migliore dell'RSI o Stocastico ----------------------------------------------------- Consumer Credit: Is a Crunch Coming? Sat Aug 3,12:01 AM ET By Peter Coy and Heather Timmons in New York, with Brian Grow in Atlanta, David Welch in Detroit, and Mike McNamee in Washington Thank Amy Bell for helping keep the U.S. economy afloat. Bell, a 27-year-old benefits manager in Atlanta, bought a studio condominium with no money down, leased a Volkswagen Passat, and spent $2,300 on a set of living room furniture -- all in the past six months. "I have been going a bit crazy with the spending," she says. That's for sure. Bell and plenty of other people are piling up huge debts. The amount that Americans owe on loans for houses, cars, credit cards, and other purchases adds up to nearly 100% of their annual income after taxes. That's up from 75% in 1992, after the last recession ended. EASY MONEY. Even if consumers are willing to take on more debt, lenders -- and more important, the investors who buy many of the loans they securitize -- may soon decide that enough is enough. If the credit crunch now squeezing business starts to hit consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of gross domestic product [GDP ( news - web sites)], the U.S. economy could wind up in a world of trouble. For now, a consumer credit crunch is hardly inevitable. Unlike businesses, consumers still have an easy time raising money. When they max out one credit card, it's a cinch to sign up for another. Outstanding consumer credit, most of it from credit cards and auto loans, rose 5.7% in the 12 months ended in May. And the amount of home-mortgage and home-equity loan debt outstanding keeps rising, too. It's up 10.5% for the year ended in March. Banks have been eager to expand consumer lending, because profits from their commercial loan, brokerage, and investment banking departments have tanked. Income at Citigroup's (NYSE: C - News) consumer businesses, for instance, grew 25%, to $2 billion, in the second quarter. MORE OVERSIGHT. For now, the combination of rising debt and falling interest rates continues to fuel consumer spending. In the past two months, mortgage refinancing has given consumers a further $40 billion to $50 billion to spend, estimates Bank One economist Diane C. Swonk. In nearly two-thirds of recent refinancings of loans owned by Freddie Mac Corp. (NYSE: FRE - News), people took out bigger loans than the ones they paid off, freeing up cash for more spending. And despite being burned repeatedly, lenders still increase loans to subprime borrowers. Swonk thinks that's a big factor in strong auto sales. But there are signs a consumer credit crunch could be in the offing. Delinquencies on non-mortgage consumer debt reached 1.86% of debts at the end of 2001, up a third from 1.4% a year earlier and the highest in a decade, according to the Consumer Bankers Assn. In the past year, Providian Financial (NYSE: PVN - News), Metris, and NextCard have been crushed by bad debts. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that the liquidation of NextCard Inc. will cost taxpayers up to $400 million. As a result, the government is stepping up oversight, which in turn could cut the supply of credit to some consumers. So far, attention is mainly on subprime lenders. "We want to put more focus on the higher risks," says David Gibbons, deputy comptroller at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. On July 22, bank regulators announced guidelines to prod credit-card lenders into increasing reserves and disclosing defaults promptly, after discovering that many were pushing the limits in their accounting. Some lenders may drop out of the market, predicts Reilly Tierney of boutique investment bank Fox-Pitt, Kelton in New York. "HIDDEN CREDIT RISK." But credit concerns could also begin to infect higher-grade credits in coming months. That's the way nearly every crunch unfolds: from the bottom up. And the quantity of debt is so large that bad news could cause lenders to retrench, even without regulators' warnings. Analysts warn that any of a number of factors could spook lenders: a decline in house prices, a rise in interest rates, or a softening of the job market that pushes up unemployment and moderates wage gains. Mortgage lenders would tighten up in a hurry if housing prices soften. That's a distinct possibility, given what Freddie Mac Corp. estimates is a 37% average increase in prices in the past five years. Many homes today are purchased with downpayments of 5% or less, so even a modest decline would leave people owing more than their house is worth. That would cool cash-out refinancings, which have propped up consumer spending. And it would frighten lenders, who would lose the ability to make themselves whole through a repossession. "It could bring to the fore a great deal of hidden credit risk," says Stuart A. Feldstein, president of SMR Research in Hackettstown, N.J. "In mortgage lending, the [profit] spreads are so thin that there's no room for big losses." An increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve ( news - web sites) could be the trigger for a fall in home prices. Right now, a Fed rate hike remains unlikely. But if the stock market keeps rebounding and the recovery continues, it will strengthen Fed hawks who argue that low rates and excessive money creation are inflating new bubbles in the economy. RISKY DEPENDENCE. For lenders, the problem is that consumers are dangerously dependent on today's superlow rates. When rates fall, the cost of servicing debt should fall, too. Yet the Federal Reserve says that household debt-service payments were more than 14% of disposable income in the first quarter, near the highest level in 22 years. If rates go higher, the burden of debt service will increase. Mortgage Bankers Assn. economist Phil Colling says that approximately 30% of outstanding mortgage debt has adjustable rates. And about 40% of non-real-estate consumer debt is revolving credit, much of which has adjustable rates. A credit crunch could set in if a rate rise triggers a wave of defaults by holders of adjustable mortgages and revolving debt. Aside from rising rates, the other nightmare for lenders would be a lull in the job market. Thanks in part to tax cuts, disposable income after inflation rose 5% in the year ended in the second quarter. That helped hold down the debt-to-income ratio. But lenders would be more reluctant to extend credit if the unemployment rate spikes or real incomes slow their rise, because they would be worried about getting paid back. And rates are already so low that the Federal Reserve couldn't easily use further rate cuts to lure consumer lenders back into extending credit. GOING FOR BROKE? A final wild card is the new bankruptcy bill, which will take effect six months after President Bush ( news - web sites) signs it into law. Feldstein of SMR Research says some shaky credit-card issuers could be driven under if many of their cardholders file at once to obtain protection from creditors under the old, more lenient law. That, in turn, could disrupt the flow of fresh credit. The credit crunch on business has been painful. But for Amy Bell and the home buyers, car shoppers and mall walkers like her across the country, a credit crunch would be a real killer. Edited by - gz on 8/7/2002 17:2:59