Welles Wilder - gz
By: GZ on Martedì 13 Agosto 2002 14:51
Ho letto di recente questa intervista di fine 1999 con Welles Wilder, uno degli inventori dell'analisi tecnica (creato l'RSI, ADX, Parabolic e altro) ormai in pensione dopo aver creato il sistema "Delta"
Piuttosto radicale nella sua visione del mercato e finora con ragione (pur con un anno e mezzo di margine di errore)
Interview with Welles Wilder
NAME: Welles Wilder
EDUCATION: Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering
CURRENT POSITION: Director of the Delta Society
FAVORITE BOOK: The Bible
How did you get into the futures business?
After a ten year career in mechanical engineering, real estate and land development, I sold my interest in over a thousand apartments and various other real estate projects and began to pursue other areas of interest. I read a book titled Silver Profits in the Seventies, by Jerome Smith. Since Real Estate is a highly leveraged situation, I looked for a way to buy silver in a highly leveraged situation; this led me to the commodity futures markets.
"I made a lot of money in silver but lost most of it in learning to trade other commodities. This led to about five years of reading, and researching everything I could get my hands on relating to futures trading using mathematical models. In 1978 I published the results of these studies in New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. My life has not been the same since."
What do you think about Y2K and the chances of disaster?
"At first I thought it was just a bump in the road causing a lot of hype. However, because it presented such enormous possibilities, I began to study it in depth. (Some of my friends call me 'Bulldog' because when I latch onto a concept, I don't let it go until I have exhausted virtually all the potential it contains). "In mid 1996, not much had been published on the subject (of Y2K), so the main area for research was the Internet, which came along just in time. I always enjoy research, because it involves sifting through opinions and latching onto the parts that can be proved or, in many cases, the items that cannot be disproved. The more I studied, the more non-disprovable information I gathered, and the more concerned I became.
"I believe most of your readers are most interested in the financial repercussions of Y2K, so I will concentrate on that arena: "The greatest financial party of the century is almost over. Banks and investors have become drunk with their huge profits and have devised more and ingenious ways to monetarize debt and then leverage it by means of derivatives. "The fractional reserve banking system now has, on average, $1.32 to dispense to depositors for each $100 in deposits. The stock market is now more 'out of value' than it was in 1929. Bankers see no place for gold in the monetary system; noone remembers or even considers deflation. "Y2K will be the catalyst that brings this house of cards crashing down. It will happen this year in 1999. It started in Asia, and the dominoes are falling. Russia has defaulted. South America, Japan, Mexico, China are all having big problems. Savvy investors are using this last market up-move to get out. "I believe that by mid summer to late summer the perception of the implications of Y2K will start bank runs throughout the world and in the United States. If the U.S. stock market has not already started to plummet, this will bring it about. I believe it will make 1929 look like a walk in the park. I believe 1999 will be the beginning of sorrows."
Where are the best financial opportunities now?
"In light of the above, there are basically two avenues. One is to buy put options on the stock market indexes. The other is to buy gold and silver call options. I prefer the latter because they are cheaper, and I believe they will provide more return on investment.
Also, when the bank runs start and the government imposes restrictions on withdrawals, what will the average guy write a check (on) in order to (acquire goods) -- it will be on the only things that have always had intrinsic value, gold and silver. "It would only take a small fraction of these 'average guys' to run the price of gold and silver to unheard of levels. Are the bankers still going to think of gold and silver as a barbaric relic and continue to sell their gold? No. They will suddenly realize they have pushed the envelope too far and that the confidence in the reserve system has finally been broken. It will be a new ball game with new rules: 'He who has the gold makes the rules.' The bankers will be first in line at the gold window to try to protect their own wealth. I believe this will happen in the late summer or fall of 1999.
"I recommend buying the December 1999 390 gold call options; currently they are under $200 apiece. If gold goes as high as it has been in the past, each call option will be worth $40,000. Regarding silver, I recommend buying the December 1999 silver call options at a strike price of $8. These are currently available for around $400 each. (call prices as of late January).
Are you still actively trading?
"Yes, but from a hands-off vantage point. I have a person in my office who is instructed to trade my account in strict accordance with the Delta Member's System. Neither he nor I are permitted to deviate from the system. This is the best system that I know. "
Who do you think has good ideas now, specifically regarding technical analysis?
"I must admit that in recent years I have not kept up with all the new stuff that has come down the pike. I think Tom DeMark leads the pack in coming up with original ideas. If you will allow me to include myself in this category, I have spent the last two years in researching a way to automatically denote a trend change.
Explain What the Delta Society Does?
"In 1983 I founded the Delta Society International as a vehicle to distribute information on futures market turning points to its members. A man named Jim Sloman made an amazing discovery. He showed me that there is a perfect order in all freely traded markets. Even though the order is perfect, the accuracy of the projected turning points is not perfect -- if it were I would be wealthier than Bill Gates, and no one would have ever heard of the Delta Society -- however I have researched the historical occurrence of each Delta Turning Point, and have defined the standard deviation and the 100 percent range for each point.
"I have now been able to provide Delta Members with a mechanical way of utilizing this information. I consider that to be my best work and final achievement in the arena of technical analysis.
Are you ever surprised at the following your ideas have created?
"Frankly, I haven't thought a lot about it, but the answer would be 'Yes.' However, when I look back over the last 25 years, I must admit that I could never have chosen any career that has been as challenging and interesting, as rewarding, and half as much fun as my third and last (this) career. I feel very fortunate indeed."
Edited by - gz on 8/13/2002 12:54:1