By: hobi50 on Venerdì 11 Marzo 2016 13:31
Ecco alcuni commenti sul FT delle mosse di Draghi di ieri.
Sono per una visione bearish perché ,per il momento ,le mosse hanno rafforzato l'Euro e penalizzato ulteriormente il sistema bancario.
La liquidità in più ai nostri giorni non è un plus.
Qualche capital gain ,che faranno i frontrunner della BCE che comprano assets, non aggiungono pure nulla alla salute del sistema economico.
"Rabobank describes the wild market moves that followed the European Central Bank rates decision and press conference as “carnage”. Whether that’s the ECB’s fault or the markets’ depends on who you speak to. Here’s a taste of the arguments on both sides.
First, those more sympathetic to the central bank:
Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank sees signs of a strop in the market.
I suppose if I was trying to explain yesterday’s ECB meeting to a child it might go something like this. Imagine you were expecting a trip during school holidays in a caravan around the country but instead you can take 2 weeks off school, fly first class to Disneyworld, have a go in the cockpit on the way, stay at a hotel made of chocolate, and then be able to go on every ride every day without queuing and have a private play session with the real Mickey Mouse as each day draws to a close.
However if the market was the same kid its reaction yesterday was “do I not get unlimited spending money, and where are we going for our summer holidays then?”
Given that Draghi over-delivered on most measures one can only wonder what the market reaction would have been if he had under delivered and stuck to the caravan trip. In reality he probably didn’t help matters by suggesting the ECB saw no need to cut rates further early in his press conference. However to give that comment some perspective when does a central banker ever say “we’re not sure if this will work so we may have to do more further down the road”? So that specific reaction was a little surprising.
Frederik Ducrozet at Pictet says “don’t fight the ECB”:
Such a policy package designed to boost bank lending and to improve QE implementation should lead to a significant easing of monetary and financial conditions. We are positive on the net impact of those measures on economic growth and bank credit and we retain our constructive outlook at this stage, including a 1.8% expansion in euro area GDP growth for this year.
The ECB stands ready to ease its monetary stance further if needed amid growing concerns over ‘lower for longer’ inflation rates.
Peter Schaffrik at RBC:
We do not share the negativity and could well imagine that the initiative to engage in risky assets will find more coverage going forward.
We think this will lead to a fairly relentless tightening of credit spreads and will pull other instruments that are not purchased lower as well. Peripheral sovereign spreads were down substantially as were bank bond spreads, a trend we think is set to continue.
And the economics team at BNP Paribas warns not to read too much into the market reaction:
The market response on day one is not always a good guide to the future reaction. We recall the muted reaction to OMT in August 2012, which was swiftly followed by a very positive response on the following days…
We ought not to lose sight of the bigger picture, either: just three months after it looked as if the doves on the Governing Council were constrained in what they could achieve, we now have an agreement by an “overwhelming” majority resulting in substantially more easing.
Now for the critics…
Lutz Karpowitz from Commerzbank says the central bank is “firing blanks”. He has issues with TLTRO 2, where the banks can effectively fund their lending at negative rates from the ECB:
The decisive question at this juncture is: why are there any banks that should want to use this programme? As per yesterday the European banking system had excess reserves of €700bn. These now incur the (now increased) punitive rates. So there is more than enough liquidity, in particular as almost euro 80bn are added every month…
And in a situation such as this there are banks that can only obtain liquidity from the ECB? If that is the case these have to be banks without access to the capital market. Other banks are clearly not prepared to provide funds to these banks and prefer to pay punitive rates to the ECB. In other words: the ECB is supporting distressed banks. With the negative interest rates it is essentially providing capital for them.
Grant Lewis from Daiwa Capital Markets, also on the TLTRO as well:
The cost of finance is only one consideration for banks when deciding whether to lend or not – of at least equal importance is how the underlying economy, and hence the loan itself, is expected to perform. And on that measure it’s far from certain that today’s announcements will prove transformative to the economic outlook. Indeed, the ECB’s own forecast for 2017 sees growth of just 1.7% and inflation well below target at just 1.3%.
Rabobank’s Piotr Matys says ECB can forget about talking the euro down:
The damage to bearish bets against the euro, however, has been done. Those market participants, including yours truly, who went into the ECB meeting with a bearish view on the euro ended Thursday’s session calculating their losses instead of celebrating profits… after such a massive blow as on Thursday Draghi and other ECB officials may find it even more difficult, if they choose to do so, to talk the euro down.
Citi‘s rates team says Draghi’s bazooka has “backfired”:
The bazooka backfired because the ECB is taking rate cuts off the table. We expect easing to be priced out.
The measures do little to convince us that realised inflation will move higher any time soon.
That said, the same bank’s emerging-markets team says “the ECB delivered”:
There is now an incentive to move away from a policy fully centered on negative rates, to a toolset centered on further relief of financing in the banking sector.The markets should be cheering that, rather than reacting in a negative way
Hobi
