By: alberta on Martedì 04 Ottobre 2011 15:14
S&P non ha dubbi: La Svezia è l' attuale paradiso europeo per gli investitori prudenti.
S&P Affirms 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings On Sweden; Outlook Stable
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Oct. 4, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today affirmed its 'AAA/A-1+' foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit
ratings on the Kingdom of Sweden. The outlook is stable.
The rating affirmation reflects ourview of the sovereign's high wealth
levels; its long-standing commitment to sound public finances; as well as the
economy's competitiveness and proven flexibility. The key weaknesses we see
for the rating are the long-term fiscal pressures emanating from an aging
population, and a higher level of household debt than previously.
Sweden has demonstrated a long-standing commitment to fiscal rules that have
kept government debt levels in check. As a consequence, the Swedish
government's balance sheet compares exceptionally well with 'AAA' rated peers,
providing the government with a substantial buffer in the event of further
economic shocks. Standard & Poor's expects the general government to record a
small surplus this year of 0.5% of GDP, and an average surplus of 1.5% in
2012-2014. We anticipate general government debt, net of liquid assets, will
continue to decline; by 2014, the general government will, by our projections,
be in a small net asset position.
Sweden has a prosperous,competitive, and resilient economy. We estimate GDP
per capita at $57,500 in 2011. In our view, the Swedish economy is supported
by its skilled workforce, strong institutional environment, and favorable
business climate. At the same time, macroeconomic policy is proactive and has
helped to foster sustainable economic growth.
During 2010, the Swedish economy rebounded strongly with real GDP growth of
5.7%. The external sector has led the recovery, although private consumption
also recorded solidgrowth. After another robust performance this year, we
expect real GDP growth to decelerate in 2012, driven by a slowdown in Sweden's
main trading partners (the euro area, Norway and Denmark, and the U.K. and
U.S.) with average growth of 2.5% per yearin 2012-2014. While the resilience
of the Swedish economy has been evident in its solid recovery, the global
recession did highlight its susceptibility to slumps in external demand. That
said, we believe Sweden has sufficient economic flexibility andfiscal and
monetary buffers to cope with negative external shocks.
Sweden's economic competiveness is reflected in its large and sustained
current account surpluses. These have reduced the net external liability
positions for both the Swedish publicand private sectors. We estimate narrow
net external debt (the stock of foreign- and local-currency public- and
private-sector borrowings from nonresidents less liquid external assets) at
99% of current account receipts in 2011. This moderate level ofexternal debt
combined with an actively traded international currency and a sound banking
system offset, under our criteria, some of the risks associated with Sweden's
short-term gross external debt of 103% of 2011 current account receipts.
Highhousehold leverage poses a key risk to the financial sector, and
ultimately to the public finances (see "Rising Household Debt Could Become A
Headache For The Nordic Countries," published on May 30, 2011). Between 2000
and 2010, Swedish gross household debt rose more than 40% as a share of GDP to
an estimated 140%. House prices remain exceptionally high in historical terms.
Under an adverse scenario where household income weakens, asset values
decline, and unemployment rises, households could facedifficulties servicing
loans. In our view, this risk is contained by households' relatively high
non-housing asset levels; declining unemployment and a supportive unemployment
benefits system; still-moderate mortgage interest rates; and strong rises in
disposable income over previous years.
Sweden's aging population creates some long-term fiscal pressures (see "Global
Aging 2010: Sweden," published Jan. 21, 2011). Like other 'AAA' rated
sovereigns, Sweden faces the prospect of an aging population, which is likely
to put increasing pressure on economic growth and public finances mainly from
state health care costs, which have already started to climb. In our view,
Sweden has prepared relatively well for the aging challenge, and previous
reforms are likely to significantly ease the burden of rising pension
payments. Reforms to the labor market and tax system have also helped reduced
unemployment.
The stable outlook reflects our assessment that the Swedish government's
commitment to fiscaldiscipline and its record of sound macroeconomic policy
will continue to support its creditworthiness. We expect Sweden's key credit
metrics on the fiscal, external, economic, and monetary side to remain well
within ranges consistent with a 'AAA'rating under our criteria. However,
government policy reversals that resulted in sustained and significant
slippages on the fiscal or external side could, over time, put downward
pressure on the ratings.