Mediolanum - gz
By: GZ on Venerdì 09 Agosto 2002 17:31
riguardo alla discussione sui fondi comuni e anche p.f abbiamo sempre Mediolanum come caso emblematico.
Per Morgan Stanley costa 2.5 volte l' "embedded value" - il metro con cui si calcola il valore delle assicurazioni - e questo però è ancora +100% rispetto alla media di settore.
Inoltre hai MLP e i principali titoli simili europei che hanno appena avvertito di avere guai e di rivedere le stime e sono stati sbudellati negli ultimi 15 gg di nuovo.
Ma il punto cruciale resta che Mediolanum non viene mai valutata sugli utili, ma su questo embedded value che è un artificio contabile e in pratica si accetta quello che la società prevede per i prossimi 15 anni in termini di fedeltà dei clienti - insomma è una scommessa sul fatto che siano stati corretti nel fare queste stime - una bomba a orologeria, a meno che le borse non risalgano
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Mediolanum: Investors seem to have lost confidence in Mediolanum. Unlike most European asset gatherers, the Italian company has continued expanding healthily in spite of the market downturn. In the first half, its sales of life assurance grew by 58% and its assets under management increased by 9%. Yet Mediolanum's shares have slumped by nearly two-thirds over the past year.
The main worry concerns Mediolanum's core pensions business. This has been highly successful at attracting the savings of young Italian professionals - an attractive customer base and one served in other countries by companies such as St James's Place and MLP. The concern is that Mediolanum has been able to make a big impact because it has faced little real competition.
Italy remains a very immature market for equity investment. Until recently, Italians mainly invested in government bonds and relied on state pensions. This lack of competition has advantaged Mediolanum. It has been able to grow its business comparatively quickly. On top of that, it has been able to attract high quality customers relatively cheaply. And best of all, it has been able to charge them high fees.
The problem is that Mediolanum won't be able to hunt on virgin ground forever. And as the competition ratchets up, it may start to look more like its more leaden-footed European peers. St James's Place and MLP have both recently announced profit warnings. The Milanese group may have to cut its prices. It may also find that its clients, who have for lack of choice been very loyal to date, may start deserting it for its new rivals.
This matters a great deal because Mediolanum is a long-term business. Much of its value depends on how much investors think its book of existing business is worth. The rest is based on an estimate of the value of business it may write in the future.
Based on guidance from Mediolanum, analysts have concocted a so-called embedded value for its existing book of E2.7 per share. However, this value is based on some pretty Pollyanna-ish assumptions. One is that pension customers will stick with it for as long as 16 years. That's a lifetime, especially when compared to peers in more mature markets. After four years, about half of the fickle policyholders at St James's Place have deserted it.
On a more prudent estimate of embedded value, Mediolanum still looks highly valued. Morgan Stanley reckons that the insurer is actually trading at 2.5 times embedded value - a premium of over 100% to the life assurance sector. Mediolanum may justify this racy multiple because of its superior growth prospects. But it cannot be called a value stock, in spite its recent share price decline.
Edited by - gz on 8/9/2002 15:35:14