Ericsson: un mercato dove paga selezionare i titoli - gz
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By: GZ on Venerdì 06 Febbraio 2004 23:18
Se compravi Cisco e Amazon perdevi un -10% o -15% in gennaio
e se compravi Lucent e Ericsson facevi un +15%
In questo mercato fissarsi sull' "indice", cosa fa l'S&P 500
o il Nasdaq o il Dax serve poco, gli indici sono al livello di un
mese fa ma sotto la superficie in gennaio sono successe un sacco di cose, Amazon e molti semiconduttori che prendono una legnata secca
e le societa' che fanno infrastrutture telecom come queste
^ERICY#^, ^NT#^, ^LU#^ che fanno balzi in alto.
Se non altro e' un mercato dove paga selezionare i titoli.
Le cose cambiano sempre, Ericsson, Lucent, Nortel erano spacciate l'autunno scorso e ci si lamentava che la comunita' finanziaria
le aveva sopravvalutate e ora sono gia' due trimestri almeno che
tutte e tre battono le previsioni di quasi tutti e ci si puo' lamentare del contrario, che gli analisti sono troppo pessimisti.
La cosa impressionante e' che DOPO un anno di rialzo di tutte le borse, con % anche del 30% medio e un +85% del Nasdaq dal minimo
questo mese, gennaio 2004, la maggioranza degli esperti e' stata troppo pessimista e si e' fatta sorprendere dai risultati positivi di Nortel, Lucent ed Ericsson.
Comprare subito prima degli annunci della trimestrale questo mese
faceva fare dei +15 in un giorno.
Le cose cambiano sempre e in fretta. Comunque al momento Ericsson e' tornata in utile per il 2003, ha 27 miliardi di corone di cassa (9 corone = 1 euro(
le vendite sono aumentate del 10% dal trimestre scorso e il GSM
e' esploso con crescita del 50-60% come unita'. E i margini operativi
sono sempre del 40% circa.
Costa un 40-50 volte gli utili almeno, ma visto che le cose stanno migliorando velocemente finora e' stato sbagliato vendere e non comprare.
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ERICY --
02/06/04 07:25
Jay Somaney analyzes the Ericsson earnings call at 8 a.m. EST.
Somaney is a partner and fund manager with TSG Capital Partners, a hedge fund based in Beverly Hills, Calif
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Ericsson Telephone's (ERICY:Nasdaq) numbers out. The company said that the market had "stabilized" and that the mobile market will see good growth in 2004 like it did in 2003.
Managed services is also seeing strong demand.
ERICY made a profit in full-year 2003 and now expects to be solidly in the black going forward. 3G rollout is accelerating and the company is seeing some capacity constraints in GSM networks.
Global 3G subscription growth is very strong. WCDMA growth was up 65% sequentially, or an increase of 2.8 million subs, and CDMA2000 1X was up 15%, or an increase in 70 million subs.
ERICY signed six new 3G contracts and has a total of 23 now. In the managed services area, ERICY signed on two new customers.
Management is saying that the major restructuring is now done. Operating expenses are at a run rate of SEK 37 billion and the company expects to achieve a target of SEK 33 billion by Q3:04. Gross margins in the quarter were 41.6%.
The company finished the December quarter with net cash of SEK 27 billion.
Q4 sales were up 10% sequentially and was the second consecutive profitable quarter for the company. GSM shipments were up 50% year over year and Japanese shipments were up 15% year over year.
For 2004, the company is expecting the mobile systems market to grow in line with or see slight growth compared to 2003. The company says it's monitoring sustainability of growth trends going forward. The company is expecting good growth in professional services.
The 3G market is accelerating and the focus is shifting toward the consumer market.
Q: Can you comment on profitability in 2G vs. 3G?
A: Most of our resources are being spent in 3G since that is the new and cutting-edge technology.
Q: How was the month of December?
A: Beyond expectations.
Q: What are you seeing going forward?
A: We will continue to see growth in the GSM network.
Q: Do you have enough capacity do meet demand going forward?
A: Yes, we do have enough capacity to meet demand in the foreseeable future.
Q: Are all the charges over with?
A: There will be some charges in Q1, but post-Q1 it is all complete.
Q: Are you expecting 5%-10% growth (moderate) in 2004?
A: It depends on a lot of factors. We said that growth would be in line with or slightly higher than the growth we saw in 2003. (My comments: I think it's a bit early and management does not want to wax positive and blow it going forward.)
Q: Gross margins were positively impacted by lower purchasing costs. Can that continue?
A: Definitely so.
Q: Given that gross margins are now at a much higher level, will you get aggressive on pricing?
A: Our pricing strategy will remain unchanged and we are the market leader, so we have always had the others coming at us (ERICY's market share is 40% as per management).
Q: Can about one-third of your manufacturing costs be considered fixed, and with volumes picking up can we see a continued increase in gross margins?
A: Yes, as revenues increase, our gross margins should increase.
Q: What do you expect the impact of currency to be in Q1?
A: We do not have any currency impact built in to our forecasts. 97% of our sales are exports.
Q: Was the fixed-line business profitable?
A: We don't break down segment information, but we have managed to slow the bleeding in the wireline business. (Read: not profitable yet.)
Q: Is ERICY prepared for a cyclical downturn?
A: Yes, we are, although we don't see a cyclical downturn ahead of us.
The call is over. The company reported good numbers and guided pretty much as expected, given what Nokia (NOK:NYSE) had said. This was the second profitable quarter in a row for ERICY, and it seems as if they have definitely turned the ship around. They seemed a bit cautious on the call, but I think that sort of caution is warranted after the horror of the past few years. Over and out. Peace. It's time for a cup of chai.