By: GZ on Mercoledì 14 Luglio 2004 12:36
------------------------------------------------------
Intel Earnings Call -- 5:30 p.m.
7/13/04 7:04 AM EDT
Intel's results were slightly below expectations.
Revenue came in a bit light at $8.05 billion and EPS was in-line at 27 cents.
For next quarter, revenue guidance is strong at $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion -- the midpoint ($8.9b) of which is above current estimates for $8.76 billion.
The stock briefly traded higher on that news, but quickly gave up the gains on disappointing gross margins. Gross margins came in at 59.4% for the quarter, vs. expecations of nearly 61%. Also, gross margin guidance for full year 2004 is now expected to be 60% +/-, vs. previous guidance of 62% +/-.
Inventory levels also grew by $427 million during the quarter, with approximately half of the increase coming from microprocessors.
All this has the stock down nearly $1 in after-hours trading. We should get additional color on the quarter and outlook when the conference call gets underway.
CFO Andy Bryant starts the call, saying flash was the major positive in the quarter. He says seasonal trends for the quarter were a little better than historical norms.
Gross margins were 2% lower on a sequential basis. Reasons cited include a mix shift in revenue (more flash memory) and a slight drop in microprocessor pricing.
In terms of the balance sheet, DSOs were flat at 36 days. Inventories grew more than anticipated. Basically, inventories grew in anticipation of higher demand. As the company works to cut down the inventory levels, the result will be a decline in profitability levels.
Management going over guidance, stating that the midpoint of its revenue guidance implies 11% sequential growth, above normal seasonal trends.
Gross margins are expected to be roughly 60%. The company expects modest downward pressure on selling prices while it works down bloated inventory levels.
In terms of geography, Asia continues to be Intel's strongest market. Revenue in the Americas was flat vs. last year. EMEA revenue grew 17% from year-ago levels. Flash growth was strong in Europe and Japan.
IA revenue grew 16% from year-ago, while ASPs were down "a bit." Management believes they held market share during the quarter. And new product introductions (Prescott, Grantsdale, etc.) are going well. Centrino chips continue to grow well.
Communications group revenue grew 33% vs. last year, as the turnaround in this area continued. The strongest segment was flash memory.
Q: Can you give us more color on what you're seeing that gives you confidence to guide Q3 higher than normal seasonal trends?
A: Strong growth and market share gains in flash and motherboards will help. Also, the seasonal patterns of Q2 give us more confidence in how things might go.
Q: When did you decide to slow your ramp-up in production?
A: We were watching yields rise and seeing inventory building, and toward the end of the quarter we made the decision that we had to slow production a bit (but not idle anything). The result will keep unit costs from falling as much as we had expected.
Q: Can you comment on Grantsdale?
A: The recall set us back about one week, but I don't see it having any impact on 2H04. We already had sufficient inventory.
Q: Did you see a fall off in order rates in June like some other tech companies?
A: No, nothing significant enough to speak of.
Q: Have you seen any slowing in the corporate replacement market?
A: No, we haven't.
Q: Why do you think you missed the inventory forecast by this much?
A: One of the problems was that when I said last quarter that I thought inventories would be flat, I didn't anticipate the ramp up in flash product that we needed to meet demand. (Andy Bryant answered.)
Q: What are the chances that you can get inventory levels down to where you want without having to take a write-off?
A: I don't think we'll have to take a writedown, but it might not happen by year-end. It might roll into next year a little.
Q: Why would you want to ramp motherboard production? No one makes much money there.
A: It is the best vehicle to help us drive new technologies. Also, a large number of our server chips coincide with our motherboards, so it's a strategic business for us.