banca che fa mutui immobiliari, cioè tratta materiale radiottivo - gz
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By: GZ on Mercoledì 27 Giugno 2007 17:07
Sulle azioni inglesi il financial times ha un ^blog bellissimo con commenti in tempo semi-reale di vari operatori#http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/06/27/5492/markets-live^ che riportano anche i report del giorno importanti sui titoli a Londra del momento
Ad esempio oggi sulla nostra ^Northern Rock#^ (detta "The Crock" per imbroglione in inglese). Trattasi di banca che fa mutui immobiliari, cioè tratta materiale ora diventato radiottivo
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NH: The Crock says that earnings will be 2% short of consensus
NH: its cites various factors, rising interest rates, higher funding costs
NH: but then you discover that it has only missed earnings forecasts by 2% because it has added an exception gain
NH: a £40m-£50m profit it has made on the disposal of a lending book
PM: That’s through an interest rate swap, usually fixed versus floating
NH: if you strip out the exceptional gain – as most analyst will because it is not recurring – then the Crock has missed forecasts by 10%
PM: Let’s just call it Northern!
NH: OK
PM: That explains the reaction of the share price
NH: sure does
NH: even house broker ABN Amro has removed Northern from its buy list
PM: Ouch
NH: still trying to get the ABN note.
NH: but got some good other stuff
NH: this is from Bruce Packard, the former top-rated bank analyst, who is now at Pail International
NH: Mtg mkt currently “robust”. Arrears “slightly higher – BUT they are seeing HUGE pressure on their interest spread (18-20bp). To put this into context, this business had a spread of 77bp 06A – so what they are saying is their pricing has been hit 25%.
NH: No change to bottom line guidance (+15% y-o-y growth) because they have offset this through a £40-£50m swap gain. Apart from this, bank would have missed their numbers by just under 10%.
NH: They say this is a natural hedge against rising interest rates, but Nrk is a fast growing bank, funded in the wholesale markets and securitisation… it’s about as ‘naturally hedged’ against rising interest rates as Easyjet is to rising fuel price.
PM: Well that does not pull any punches
PM: Any more comment?
NH: still working on ABN
NH: but here’s Collins Stewart
NH: Strategy change and profit warning due to Basel II
This all surrounds Basel II. On 2 April, NRK indicated it would beat
consensus and grow their version of underlying earnings by 18% in FY07.
This is now back down to 15% as the company is moving strategy. Higher risk-weighted lending (commercial secured and personal unsecured) is no longer to be kept on balance-sheet and these businesses are moving to an originate-and-sell model.
NH: NRK is always negatively impacted by rising rates due to its balance-sheet structure. This was already a known issue but these issues together equate to a c.2% profit warning. Management s expectation for 15% earnings
growth excludes the first-time payment of preference dividends
we feel
these should not be excluded (the capital is certainly being used in the
business) and it is worth noting earnings growth in 2007 will be around zero.
NH: The bank has either sold or agreed to sell its commercial secured book
which should generate gains of c.£50m to offset the income hit above.
However, these gains are a one-off rather than recurrent.
NH: We were forecasting 14% net share for FY07, the company has delivered
19% for the first five months a record for the bank and a very positive
performance. However, the structural step-down in profitability this year
more than offsets this positive news.
NH: This is bad but not the end . Capital return seen in 2008
The proposition is that the new model will allow an increased dividend
payout and a share buyback however, these are likely to only be material
in 2008, we feel. In the short-term, we are cutting estimates c.5%,
downgrading to HOLD and cutting our price target. Other geared commercial
secured lenders we now worry about include Anglo Irish and even potentially
Bank of Ireland.
PM: Interesting but very complex
NH: it is
NH: hang on my colleague Chris Flood has been able to track down the ABN downgrade
PM: Flood
NH: here it is
NH: Northern Rock - Profit Warning: This Is Very Bad
PM: Whoa!
PM: Hosue broker says : “This is V Bad”
NH: We reduce from Buy to Hold, new target price 900p (approx 8x new 08F EPS of 114p). We see no reason to own these shares, and expect negative sentiment read-thru to all the mortgage banks today.
NH: Key points: GBP180-GBP200m reduction in 07F net interest income disclosed today is partially offset by GBP100-GBP120m one-time benefits. We downgrade 07F and 08F EPS 4% and 6% to 95p and 114p respectively. Without one-off benefits, 07F downgrade would be 23%.
NH: Net interest income hit is mostly due to higher funding costs: i) 2 year swap rates up 62bp in last 3 months, ii) LIBOR-Base gap is now 45bp, H107 average 34bp vs H106 14bp.
NH: N Rock has also flagged change in strategy, so will now originate and sell on commercial loans and unsecured loans, previously held on balance sheet.
NH: